The Atlantic: “When this year began, the Democrats were heavy underdogs to take back the Senate in the midterms. The task would require not only toppling Susan Collins in Maine but also winning at least five states that voted for Donald Trump in 2024, while holding on to all of the party’s existing seats. The realistic best-case scenario seemed to be a replay of the so-called blue-wave 2018 election, during Trump’s first term, in which Democrats took back the House but the Senate remained in Republican hands. To gain control of the upper chamber, Democrats would need an incredible stroke of luck. They might have gotten one.”

“Trump’s decision to start a war with Iran, and the resulting spike in oil prices, shifted the boundaries of the politically possible.”

Jonathan Bernstein: “While plenty of people are already voting, there’s still five weeks to election day, and raw polling results five weeks out are hardly the last word in predictions. It’s certainly possible that trends towards the Democrats will continue all through October; it’s also possible that the Republicans have just endured a particularly harsh stretch, and that there will be at least some reversion to more normal partisan balance. The FiftyPlusOne prediction model, for example, has a median estimate of only – only! – 52 Democratic Senate seats.”

“The big point here is that there’s still a pretty large range of plausible outcomes, including some that at this point would be pretty disappointing for Democrats. But also that the upside for Republicans now seems more likely be retaining control with 50 possibly even 51 seats, which is not only awful for them compared to what things looked like a year ago but also worse than it looked even a few weeks ago. And the upside for Democrats? It’s just silly looking at this point. Which doesn’t mean it can’t happen.”

“With polls showing a tight U.S. Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton, we decided to see how this year matched up against 2018, the last time a Texas statewide election came down to the wire,” Axios reports.

“Senate Majority Leader John Thune and GOP Whip John Barrasso are preparing to hit the campaign trail in October,” Politico reports.

“Thune is planning to swing through a number of states starting with North Carolina this week…He said he’ll also go to South Carolina, Florida, twice to Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, Minnesota and Michigan, among others, as Republicans fight to keep control of the Senate in an increasingly difficult political environment for their party.”

“Barrasso, meanwhile, will travel to Ohio, Montana, Kansas and Kentucky next month… Barrasso has already been on the campaign trail in Iowa, Texas and South Carolina.”

“Top national Democrats are preparing to make an initial investment in the Texas Senate race, a strategic shift that speaks to the party’s growing confidence in a state that has dashed its hopes for decades,” the New York Times reports.

“The main super PAC for Senate Democrats, Senate Majority PAC, said on Tuesday that it would begin an advertising effort meant to help James Talarico, the Democratic nominee, by targeting his Republican opponent, Ken Paxton.”

“The super PAC, which is aligned with Senator Chuck Schumer, the minority leader, had so far resisted spending money in Texas, viewing the party’s path to a majority as running through smaller states where advertising is cheaper.”