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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 191

Blue Wave Update

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 191: Blue Wave Update

A Few Thoughts on War with Iran

February 28, 2026 · 7:26 am ET · Leave a Comment

President Trump launched a military strike against Iran overnight — not from the Situation Room, but from his Mar-a-Lago resort — framing it as the kind of decisive action no American president has taken against Tehran in nearly 50 years.

Trump said the attack was meant to stop “this very wicked, radical dictatorship from threatening America.”

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Members, Talking Points

Be Careful What You Normalize

February 27, 2026 · 12:29 pm ET · Leave a Comment

As Bill Clinton answers questions from lawmakers about Jeffrey Epstein today, it’s not just another chapter in a scandal that refuses to die.

It will be a precedent.

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The Only Unforgivable Sin Is Losing the Seat

February 26, 2026 · 12:59 pm ET · Leave a Comment

The scandal surrounding Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX) isn’t fading. It’s metastasizing.

Newly released text messages reportedly show Gonzales repeatedly pressuring a congressional staffer for sexually explicit photos. The same staffer later died by self-immolation — a devastating and horrific end that has cast the allegations in an even darker light. Her husband called Gonzales “a predator.”

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Members, Talking Points

When the Guests Become the Speech

February 26, 2026 · 10:22 am ET · Leave a Comment

Ronald Reagan changed the choreography of the State of the Union in 1982 when he looked up to the gallery and asked Lenny Skutnik to stand.

Skutnik had dived into the icy Potomac River to rescue a passenger after Air Florida Flight 90 slammed into the 14th Street Bridge.

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My Reaction to the State of the Union

February 25, 2026 · 6:41 am ET · Leave a Comment

I’ve watched every State of the Union address for as long as I can remember.

Some have soared. Some have stumbled. Most land somewhere in between.

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Members, Talking Points

The Rise of Political Casinos

February 24, 2026 · 7:30 am ET · Leave a Comment

Politics is famously unpredictable. And yet, for decades, there’s been a relentless effort to tame it — to turn chaos into math.

First came polling averages, smoothing out the noise and promising clarity. Then the models arrived, layering assumptions on top of assumptions to generate tidy probabilities.

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The Worst Job in Politics

February 24, 2026 · 6:18 am ET · Leave a Comment

I’m often asked for career advice by young, idealistic people who want to change the world through politics.

They usually light up when they talk about Washington. Capitol Hill. Congress. The “big leagues.”

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The Voters Who Will Make Up a Blue Wave

February 23, 2026 · 5:58 am ET · Leave a Comment

As Donald Trump prepares to deliver his State of the Union address tomorrow night, a new Washington Post poll offers a blunt assessment: the country isn’t buying what he’s selling.

Trump’s job approval stands at 39%, with 60% disapproving — including a striking 47% who strongly disapprove.

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Why Trump Is Doubling Down on Tariffs

February 23, 2026 · 4:00 am ET · Leave a Comment

No matter what the Supreme Court says, Donald Trump isn’t backing down on tariffs.

Even after the Court ruled that his use of emergency powers to wage a global trade war was unlawful, Trump signaled he’s prepared to escalate rather than retreat.

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How ‘Electability’ Became a Democratic Obsession

February 17, 2026 · 2:22 pm ET · Leave a Comment

The news media covered Jesse Jackson’s presidential campaigns with a question that sounded analytical but functioned as a dismissal: What does Jesse want?

The implication was obvious. A Black candidate couldn’t possibly win the presidency — everyone “knew” that — so the campaign had to be symbolic or transactional.

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Members, Political History, Talking Points

Where’s My Check?

February 13, 2026 · 12:11 pm ET · Leave a Comment

President Trump has floated a lot of ways to send Americans free money.

None have actually happened.

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Trump’s Favorite Strategy Stops Working

February 13, 2026 · 9:54 am ET · Leave a Comment

For years, Donald Trump’s political survival skill has been simple: when the news turns bad, create bigger news.

A shocking comment, a cultural fight, a personal attack — anything that forces the media to look away from whatever problem is currently burning.

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Democrats May Be Saving Republicans From Themselves

February 12, 2026 · 8:54 am ET · Leave a Comment

House Republicans passed a sweeping election bill yesterday requiring voters to prove citizenship with documents like a passport to register — and to show photo ID at the polls.

It now heads to the Senate, where Democrats are expected to block it.

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Election Administration, Members, Talking Points

Republicans Stand by Trump’s Unlimited Trade Powers

February 11, 2026 · 12:06 pm ET · Leave a Comment

The House handed Speaker Mike Johnson a very public defeat last night.

A rule he championed — designed to block future House votes aimed at ending President Trump’s tariffs — went down narrowly, 214 to 217.

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Foreign Affairs, Members, Talking Points

The Real Jobs Story Was in the Fine Print

February 11, 2026 · 10:22 am ET · Leave a Comment

The Labor Department reported this morning that the economy added 130,000 jobs in January.

That’s the headline. But it’s not the story.

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Economy, Members, Talking Points

This Is Trump’s Plan to Steal the Midterms

February 9, 2026 · 1:00 pm ET · Leave a Comment

For months, Democrats have gamed out all the wild ways Donald Trump might try to sabotage the midterm elections — ICE agents at polling places and even talk of canceling elections outright.

Most of that is noise.

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2026 Campaign, Members, Talking Points

Jon Ossoff Emerges as a Democratic Dark Horse

February 9, 2026 · 11:07 am ET · Leave a Comment

Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) is sharpening his edge.

At a campaign rally over the weekend, Ossoff delivered a blistering critique of President Trump and the economic priorities of a second Trump administration.

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2026 Campaign, 2028 Campaign, Members, Talking Points

Picking a Fight with Bad Bunny Is Bad Politics

February 9, 2026 · 10:37 am ET · Leave a Comment

Donald Trump took a swipe at Bad Bunny’s Super Bowl halftime performance, complaining that “nobody” could understand it because most of it was in Spanish.

You don’t have to like Bad Bunny. Musical taste isn’t the point.

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Members, Talking Points

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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