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The Republican Collapse Has Begun

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Today’s New York Times/Siena College poll underscores the problem Donald Trump poses for Republicans heading into November.

His overall approval rating is just 37% — right in line with other recent surveys showing a president badly underwater.

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How Democrats Can Reverse Trumpism

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Assuming Democrats can win back Congress and the White House by 2028, they will face an immediate question: How much of Donald Trump’s damage can actually be undone?

Democrats must begin planning a sweeping pro-democracy agenda.

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Nebraska Democrats Play It Smart

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Republicans may still have the upper hand in the redistricting wars, but Democrats got a hardball win in Nebraska last night.

Instead of wasting energy on a long-shot Democratic Senate bid, party leaders effectively cleared the lane for Dan Osborn, the independent who appears to have the best chance of giving Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-NE) a serious race in November.

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A Complete and Total Defeat

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Robert Kagan has written one of the most bracing assessments yet of the Iran War, arguing that the United States has already “suffered a total defeat.”

His argues the predicament facing Washington has no real precedent in American history and can “neither be repaired nor ignored.”

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The Map Wars Turn Against Democrats

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Two weeks ago, Democrats had reason to think the redistricting wars were finally breaking their way.

Virginia voters had approved a referendum that could allow Democrats to redraw the state’s congressional map — with the possibility of flipping as many as four House seats.

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Republicans May Regret This Ruling

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Republicans are understandably celebrating the Supreme Court’s decision giving states more freedom to redraw congressional maps in ways that erase Black-majority Democratic districts.

In the short run, it could be a major gift.

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Trump’s Grip Still Holds

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President Trump’s grip on the Republican Party was reaffirmed Tuesday night in Indiana.

The clearest evidence came in a string of Republican primaries targeting incumbent state senators who helped block Trump’s push last year for a new congressional map.

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Trump’s Blockade Bet Hasn’t Paid Off

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President Trump announced Sunday that the United States would begin escorting stranded commercial ships out of the Strait of Hormuz, calling the effort “Project Freedom.”

He described it as a humanitarian mission — a way to free ships and crews that had no role in the fighting but were effectively trapped by Iran’s threat to attack vessels moving through the waterway.

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New Research Challenges ‘Voters Don’t Matter’ Narrative

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One of the most influential ideas in modern political science—that public policy largely ignores the preferences of average voters—may be wrong.

A new study by Cornell’s Peter Enns finds that the widely cited work of Martin Gilens (and later with Benjamin Page) was distorted by a statistical quirk known as Simpson’s paradox, which can make relationships in data appear to reverse when grouped in certain ways. 

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Even Rudy Giuliani’s Hospitalization Becomes About Trump

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Donald Trump has never been one to let a human moment remain human for long.

After news broke that Rudy Giuliani was hospitalized in critical condition in Florida, Trump posted a message on Truth Social that was meant to be about his old friend and former lawyer.

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A Warning Shot for the Democratic Establishment

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The sudden exit of Janet Mills from the U.S. Senate race in Maine is a flashing warning sign for Democrats.

Mills wasn’t just trailing — she was getting blown out. In poll after poll, political newcomer Graham Platner was beating her by double digits, a remarkable showing against a sitting governor.

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Reevaluating the Redistricting Wars

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Early handicapping of the political fallout suggests a meaningful — though still fluid — shift in the House landscape following the Supreme Court’s rollback of key Voting Rights Act protections.

Initial estimates from the biggest election analysts are strikingly consistent.

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What the Supreme Court Decision Means for the Midterms

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The immediate fallout from the Supreme Court’s ruling today is clear: Louisiana’s congressional map will have to be redrawn. 

But there’s a major catch. Louisiana’s candidate filing deadline has already passed — which makes it exceedingly difficult to implement a new map in time for this year’s elections.

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How Big a Blue Wave?

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I’m giving a speech in Washington, D.C. this afternoon on what the midterm elections look like six months out.

Here are my key points:

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Republican Loyalty Faces a Test as Trump’s Numbers Sink

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President Trump’s disapproval rating is climbing to levels that are increasingly hard to ignore.

For years, he has appeared largely insulated from public opinion — buoyed by a Republican base and congressional allies who rarely break ranks.

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A Few More Thoughts on the Redistricting Wars

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Democrats have reason to celebrate their victory in Virginia last night. It’s a sharp, dispiriting setback for Republicans — made worse by the fact that they initiated the fight.

A few additional thoughts:

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Redistricting Fight Leaves Republicans Exposed

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Democrats notched a narrow but consequential win in Virginia, pushing through early redistricting and handing Republicans an outcome that looks increasingly like a strategic misfire.

The broader scoreboard tells the story.

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The Iran War’s Unexpected Winner

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The early read on the Iran war is counterintuitive: for all the strikes on its military infrastructure and President Trump’s chest thumping about victory, Iran is emerging with more leverage, not less.

At the center of it is the Strait of Hormuz.

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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