“It is dangerous to assume that this bill will die on its own.”
Archives for May 2017
No Economists Polled Agree with Trump
A new University of Chicago poll found that only two out of the 37 economists that responded said that President Trump’s proposed tax cuts “would stimulate the economy enough to cancel out the effect on total tax revenue.”
“Those two economists now both say they made a mistake, and that they misunderstood the question.”
Trump Agenda Will Take Much Longer Than Planned
Mike Allen: “For the first time, some key Republicans are pessimistic that tax reform can be finalized this year. It has to come after the 2018 budget (its own sinkhole). So tax reform could get pushed into 2018, and ambitious bills are even harder in an election year since the other side doesn’t want to give the White House a win.”
“Massive spending for an infrastructure package will be a tough sell with the hardline House Freedom Caucus and some Senate conservatives. So Trump will probably need Ds — tough before midterms.”
“The Rose Garden celebration on the House health bill was a sugar rush for Rs and no indication of momentum. The math on their own side remains intractable. And with the Cook Political Report‘s Amy Walter now giving Dems a 40-50% chance of taking the House, they’re less likely than ever to help Trump.”
Senate May Take Its Time on Obamacare Repeal
Playbook: “The health-care hot potato is now in Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) hands. But expect this phase of the fight to look much different than it did in the House. McConnell is a much different operator than House leaders. He’s calm and cool, and does not get rattled easily. He doesn’t really succumb to pressure. We expect the Senate is going to take its time cobbling together whatever Obamacare repeal bill it can — it could take many months, insiders tell us. We expect the process to unfold like this: the Senate takes a while, the House and Trump begin to get angry and lash out at the Senate.”
“When congressional leaders say they are going to pivot quickly to tax reform, keep in mind that Congress needs to pass a new budget resolution first. Budgets lay out spending priorities. Republicans are far from unified on that.”
Mike Allen: “If health reform makes it to Trump’s desk, it’s unlikely to be before fall. It’ll take up the Senate calendar through the summer, then the conference committee and another floor fight in the House.”
A Massive Fiscal Cliff Is Coming
Politico: “Over the next several months, Republicans will have to figure out how to cut deals with Democrats to avoid a default on the national debt and avert a government shutdown, among several other must-pass items.”
“Though Congress avoided a government closure this month — a major bipartisan legislative accomplishment for an institution otherwise devoid of any this year — a quintet of critical deadlines in the early fall will force either a furious round of deal-making or brinkmanship that could have dire effects on the economy. It will be a major test of Trump and the all-GOP Congress’ ability to govern, who are bound to be blamed for any problems given their dominant political position.”
“As if avoiding a government shutdown and debt default weren’t enough, Congress will have to tackle three important programs set to expire at the end of September: Federal Aviation Administration law, federal flood insurance and a children’s health insurance initiative.”
Russian Probes Could Stretch Into 2018 Midterms
“The congressional investigations into President Trump’s ties to Russia are off to such a sluggish start that they could stretch into next year’s midterm election season. That’s a silver lining for Democrats who have grumbled that investigators aren’t moving fast enough — but who would be delighted to see the issue in the headlines as voters head to the polls,” Politico reports.
“Interviews with more than a dozen lawmakers involved in the House and Senate Intelligence Committee investigations show there is no consensus on how long they should take. The interviews also show just how politicized these investigations have already become, which threatens to undermine Congress’ chance at determining what did or didn’t happen in the 2016 campaign.”
Obama Urges ‘Political Courage’ to Save Obamacare
Barack Obama called on members of Congress to exercise the “political courage” to not repeal Obamacare, Politico reports.
Said Obama: “It is my fervent hope, and the fervent hope of millions, that regardless of party, such courage is still possible. That today’s members of Congress are willing to look at the facts and speak the truth, even when it bucks party dogmas. I hope that current members of Congress recognize it takes little courage to aid those who are already powerful, already comfortable, already influential—but it takes great courage to champion the vulnerable and the sick and the infirm.”
Trump Demands an End to Flynn Leaks
“On the eve of Sally Yates’ testimony before the Senate on her warnings about Mike Flynn, the President wants any of his staff who’ve been feeding negative lines about Flynn to the media to stop immediately,” Axios reports.
“White House officials have been eager to throw the former national security advisor under the bus, but a source familiar with the President’s thinking says he still thinks highly of Flynn and has never authorized any of his staff to undermine the general.”
Trump Kicks Off Plan to Remake the Courts
“Having filled a Supreme Court vacancy, President Trump is turning his attention to the more than 120 openings on the lower federal courts. On Monday, he will announce a slate of 10 nominees to those courts, a senior White House official said, the first in what could be near monthly waves of nominations,” the New York Times reports.
The GOP Goal Is to Take Away an Entitlement
New York Times: “As they take their victory lap for passing a bill that would repeal and replace much of the Affordable Care Act, President Trump and congressional Republicans have been largely silent about one of the most remarkable aspects of what their legislation would do: take a step toward dismantling a vast government entitlement program, something that has never been accomplished in the modern era.”
“Fighting the expansion of the so-called welfare state is a fundamental premise of the American conservative movement. But as tens of millions of Americans have come to rely on coverage under the 2010 health law, Republicans have learned the political risks of being seen as taking a hatchet to the program, however imperfect it may be.”
Macron Will Be France’s Next President
“Emmanuel Macron, a youthful former investment banker with little political experience, was well ahead in France’s presidential election on Sunday, suggesting that his call for a new centrist approach to politics would handily defeat the staunch nationalism of his far-right opponent, Marine Le Pen, according to projections based on preliminary results,” the New York Times reports.
Exit polls showed Macron winning by as much as 30 percentage points over Le Pen.
Politico: “The stronger-than-expected victory of Macron is a stunning achievement for this novice to electoral politics, at 39 the youngest president in the history of France’s Fifth Republic. And it is the third consecutive setback for European populist parties who preached a mix of Trump-like nationalism and protectionism to voters fed up with conventional politics.”
Kushner’s Sister Offered Visas to Chinese Investors
“Jared Kushner’s sister offered wealthy investors in China a chance to score American visas if they invest in one of the family’s properties — a deal that watchdogs saw as blatant bribery,” the New York Daily News reports.
“Nicole Kushner Meyer took the stage at a Ritz-Carlton hotel in Beijing on Saturday with a pitch to a room with about 100 investors: They could get green cards if they poured money into One Journal Square, a $150 million luxury Jersey City development from her family.”
Every GOP Lawmaker Declined Invite to Explain Vote
“MSNBC host Joy Reid said Saturday that her show invited the 217 House Republicans who voted in favor of the GOP’s bill to repeal and replace ObamaCare to come on her program, saying none accepted the offer,” The Hill reports.
Said Reid: “I offered each of them the lead spot on this show this morning, to the one-on-one with me, to explain why they voted for the bill. And not a single one agreed … all those names.”
Quist Trails By 6 Points In Montana
A new Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D) poll in Montana finds Greg Gianforte (R) leads Rob Quist (D) by six points in the congressional special election, 49% to 43%.
Price Insists No One Would Lose Coverage
Health and Human Services secretary Tom Price told CNN that the $880 billion in Medicaid cuts over 10 years in the House-passed health care bill would “absolutely not” cause anyone to lose health coverage.
Said Price: “We believe strongly that the Medicaid population will be cared for in a better way.”
The House Health Care Disaster Is Really About Taxes
Peter Suderman: “I have been a critic of Obamacare since it became law, but the Republican alternative is worse in nearly every way… It’s unclear what health policy problem this bill would solve. Even for an opponent of Obamacare, it is difficult to understand why House Republicans chose this path to revamping the nation’s health care system.”
“It’s difficult to understand, that is, if you think they were passing a health care bill. It makes more sense when you realize that isn’t what they were doing at all. They were passing a tax cut — one intended to pave the way for more tax cuts.”
“The flaws of the bill, then, can be understood as a symptom of the flaws of the Republican Party, which has for decades maintained a myopic focus on tax cuts at the expense of nearly all else. Too often, it is a party of people who seem to confuse governing with cutting taxes.”
Eric Trump Claimed Funding Came from Russia
Author James Dodson described to WBUR a conversation he had with Eric Trump in 2014 while playing golf:
“So when I got in the cart with Eric,” Dodson says, “as we were setting off, I said, ‘Eric, who’s funding? I know no banks — because of the recession, the Great Recession — have touched a golf course. You know, no one’s funding any kind of golf construction. It’s dead in the water the last four or five years.’ And this is what he said. He said, ‘Well, we don’t rely on American banks. We have all the funding we need out of Russia.’ I said, ‘Really?’ And he said, ‘Oh, yeah. We’ve got some guys that really, really love golf, and they’re really invested in our programs. We just go there all the time.’ Now that was three years ago, so it was pretty interesting.”
French Voters Head to the Polls
“After months of improbable twists in its campaign to pick a president, France hurtled toward a choice Sunday with voters opting between a far-right firebrand who wants to deconstruct modern Europe and a centrist political neophyte who has promised to revive it,” the Washington Post reports.
“Pre-election surveys showed centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron enjoying a wide lead over populist challenger Marine Le Pen. But following a campaign studded with surprises, France was braced at least for the possibility of one more.”
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