Political Wire

Archives for May 2017

What Democrats’ Losses in 2010 Can Tell Us About 2018

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Nate Cohn: “If the political consequences of President Trump’s health bill are anything like those of President Obama’s, the vote on Thursday could become a litmus test for moderate, Democratic-leaning voters who often vote Republican in statewide or congressional elections.”

“A study by the political scientists Brendan Nyhan, Eric McGhee, John Sides, Seth Masket and Steven Greene showed that the Democrats who voted against the A.C.A. outperformed those who voted for it by a net 10 to 15 points in 2010… Our estimates are lower, at around 5 to 10 points, in part because many of the Democratic A.C.A. opponents fared particularly well in the 2008 elections, but it’s a considerable effect either way.”

“This doesn’t necessarily mean that the Democrats would have done 5 to 10 points better in the 2010 midterm elections if they had never pursued the Affordable Care Act. It just means that the members who didn’t vote for it did better than those who did.”

GOP Senator Says Bill Must Pass the ‘Jimmy Kimmel Test’

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Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) said that a Senate plan to repeal and replace Obamacare should pass the “Jimmy Kimmel test,” after the comedian revealed his son was born with a heart defect, The Hill reports.

Said Cassidy: “I ask, does it pass the Jimmy Kimmel test? Will a child born with congenital heart disease be able to get everything she or he would need in the first year of life? I want it to pass the Jimmy Kimmel test.”

Brooks Mulls Senate Race In Alabama

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Rep. Mo Brooks (R-AL) said he is “seriously’’ considering challenging Sen. Luther Strange (R-AL) in an upcoming special election and has even conducted a poll to see where he stands, the Montgomery Advertiser reports.

Brooks said he’s had a six-person poll conducted that showed Roy Moore (R) in first with about 30%, Strange in second with about 20% and him in third with low double digits. He said three others trailed with single digits.

TV Station Adds Newscast to Run More Political Ads

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An Atlanta television station added a 7 p.m. newscast on its sister station for the sole purpose of running more political ads, the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.

“Two sources at 11Alive said the newscast is temporary and tied directly to accommodate a flood of political ads promoting (or taking down) either Jon Ossoff and Karen Handel vying for the hotly contest House seat left behind by Tom Price, now the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services. They said the newscast will end after the runoff is over June 20.”

How Republicans Can Make Their Health Care Bill a Law

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This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Republican leaders got their health care bill through the House using a simple strategy: Appease conservatives and dare moderates to vote against the bill.

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Unemployment Rate Falls to 10-Year Low

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“The pace of hiring picked up again in April and the unemployment rate fell to the lowest level in nearly a decade, providing reassurance the broader economy is poised for a strong spring after a lackluster start to the year,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The unemployment rate for April edged down to 4.4% from the prior month’s 4.5% reading. The unemployment rate hasn’t been this low since May 2007, and that matched the lowest rate of any point during the prior expansion.”

Cindy McCain Eyed for Senior State Department Role

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Cindy McCain, the wife of Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), is expected to be offered a prominent role in the Trump administration’s State Department, the AP reports.

“Although it wasn’t clear what position she would fill, one possibility under discussion is McCain serving as an ambassador-at-large in Washington, focusing on a specific issue such as human trafficking, according to the administration official and another individual familiar with the talks. McCain, a philanthropist and global humanitarian activist, has been a vocal advocate for victims of human trafficking for several years.”

Trump Wanted More ‘Slack Periods’

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New York Times: “The signature image of Mr. Trump’s first 100 days in office, people close to the president said, is that of Mr. Priebus standing just inside the open door of the Oval Office, agitated and rolling his eyes, as Mr. Trump beckons another seemingly random gaggle of aides, friends, family, visitors, reporters — even the White House decorator — in for an unstructured chat or, worst of all, policy discussions.”

“Over time, Mr. Trump bridled and demanded the unstructured time he had so valued as an executive at Trump Tower. Mr. Priebus, who initially outsourced the details of Oval Office scheduling and paper flow to a deputy, has now taken over those tasks himself. He has reduced the pace of public events and, like a Montessori teacher, modulates structured work time with the slack periods Mr. Trump craves.”

Democrats Gain Ground In 2018 House Races

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The Cook Political Report today will shift its 2018 forecast for 20 House districts — all in favor of Democrats.

“Not only did dozens of Republicans in marginal districts just hitch their names to an unpopular piece of legislation, Democrats just received their best candidate recruitment tool yet.”

“Democrats aren’t so much recruiting candidates as they are overwhelmed by a deluge of eager newcomers, including doctors and veterans in traditionally red seats who have no political record for the GOP to attack — almost a mirror image of 2010.”

Key statistic: Of the 23 Republican lawmakers from districts won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, 14 voted for the GOP health care bill.

Freedom Caucus Crafting Tax Reform Plan

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“The House Freedom Caucus wants a seat at the tax reform table, and members are crafting a bill so they don’t show up empty handed,” Politico reports.

“The caucus, which roiled the Republican effort to repeal and replace Obamacare, would be parachuting in to what promises to be another pitched battle over the Republicans’ next marquee issue. Though it doesn’t have an official line yet on tax reform, members appear to be more aligned with the Trump administration than House Republican leaders on how deep tax cuts should be, if they need to be offset and whether to include a controversial import tax.”

‘I Think They Are Staring Death in the Face’

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“No one knows better than House Democrats how a contentious health care vote can exact a steep political price — losing control of the House in the first midterm election of an untested new president’s tenure for example,” the New York Times reports.

“As they hooted derisively at their Republican colleagues on Thursday after a narrow, party-line approval of legislation to roll back the Obama-era health care law, Democrats glimpsed the mirror image of their own politically disastrous health care experience. They also saw a prime opportunity to avenge their ugly 2010 loss and possibly recapture the House majority.”

Said Rep. Gerald Connolly (D-VA): “I think they are staring death in the face. They asked their vulnerable members to take an enormous gamble and risk on an act of faith that I guarantee will not pay off.”

Lewandowski Suddenly Quits Lobbying Firm

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“Donald Trump’s first campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, on Thursday resigned from his lobbying firm amid scrutiny of its efforts to capitalize on his relationship with the president,” Politico reports.

Bloomberg: “Lewandowski said Thursday that his partner, Barry Bennett, and others among the firm’s eight operatives have used his name without his authorization and sought business with foreign clients that he doesn’t want.”

Fox News Dug Up Dirt on Women

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“Federal investigators looking into sexual harassment settlements and alleged intimidation tactics at Fox News are eyeing mayoral hopeful Bo Dietl’s work for the network,” the New York Daily News reports.

“The former private investigator admitted Thursday to the Wall Street Journal that he was hired by Fox News to investigate several women who made sexual harassment allegations against the company and its former chairman Roger Ailes.”

Priebus Sees a Much-Needed Reprieve

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New York Times: “The Republican health care overhaul might never become law, but it has already changed the life of one American: Reince Priebus, who knew it was his best and perhaps last hope of becoming an empowered White House chief of staff.”

“It is unlikely that Mr. Priebus — roundly regarded as a steady party leader but one of the least powerful White House chiefs of staff ever — would have been fired had the second repeal-and-replace plan not passed the House on Thursday. But he viewed it as a personal make-or-break moment, and interviews with two dozen West Wing aides and Republican officials confirmed that another big loss on health care would probably have been an unrecoverable blow to an already weakened Mr. Priebus.”

About Political Wire

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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