November 7, 2018

Walter Shapiro: “The new Democratic House majority — and the almost certain return of Nancy Pelosi as speaker — represents a triumph over gerrymandering. Not too long ago political orthodoxy decreed that the Republicans would control the House until after the 2020 Census because the district lines were so artfully drawn by the GOP after the Democratic wipeout in the 2010 elections.”

“Instead, the 2018 House elections were a belated vindication of Hillary Clinton’s failed 2016 strategy of pitching herself to college-educated suburban Republican women. These women were Clinton’s target audience when she maladroitly described half of Trump supporters as ‘a basket of deplorables’ because of their ‘racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic’ views.”

“As Trump in the White House fulfills every dire prophecy about his vitriolic fear mongering, affluent suburbs are increasingly becoming part of the permanent Democratic coalition.”

Washington Post: “As Europeans woke up to the results of the 2018 midterm elections on Wednesday, their primary question — what next for a president who is so deeply unpopular here? — remained largely unanswered.”

“But just like in the United States, European news networks still dedicated hours-long specials to the key vote. And while viewers here tried to make sense of the results, they repeatedly stumbled over two numbers: the total votes for Democratic and Republican Senate candidates. More than 44 million Americans voted for Democratic Senate candidates vs. about 33 million for Republican contenders.”

“As the animated TV graphics clearly showed, though, it was Republicans who ended the night in control of the Senate — not the Democrats.”

Aaron Blake: “But the Senate popular vote is a bogus stat for a whole host of reasons… The biggest problem with it is that not every state is up for reelection, leading to a skewed picture… The second reason is California. It has a unique system in which the top two candidates advance to the general election, regardless of party. This year, that was two Democrats. That means all 6 million votes counted (with many more to come) go to the Democrats.”

First Read: “Indeed, much like Virginia’s gubernatorial contest from last year, Democrats won big in highly educated urban/suburban areas up and down the ballot. The problem for them is that not all states are Virginia, where those urban/suburban areas mathematically crush the rest of the state.”

“Yes, Dems flipped the governor’s mansion in Kansas. And they pulled off a surprising congressional win in Oklahoma.”

“But as we wrote yesterday, we are living in extremely volatile and divided times. And what we are seeing is a further realignment of our politics — with urban/suburban going Democratic, and with rural and red areas going more Republican.”

There are still many high profile races which are not yet called, per Axios:

• In Georgia’s gubernatorial race, Stacey Abrams (D) has vowed not to concede against her opponent Brian Kemp (R) until “every vote gets counted.” Kemp currently holds 50.5% of the vote, but the race could face a runoff if neither candidate ultimately ends up over 50%.
• In Arizona’s Senate race, Martha McSally (R) is up on Kyrsten Sinema (D) 49.3% to 48.5% with about 99.3% reporting. The Arizona Republic notes “an official victor may not be known for days — and maybe longer, if the final tally were to trigger a recount or legal challenge.”
• In Florida’s Senate race, Rick Scott (R) is up on Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 50.2% to 49.8% with 100% reporting. Scott has declared victory, but the race is statistically too close to call and an automatic recount will take place if the margin of victory remains less than 0.5%.
• In Montana’s Senate race, Sen. Jon Tester is down 48.2% to 48.9% against challenger Matt Rosendale (R) with about 82% reporting and the race still too close to call.

Use the comments to discuss other races that are still too close to call.

“The midterms produced a divided Congress that’s emblematic of a split America, drifting further apart and pointing to poisonous years ahead,” Axios reports.

“The net result: Two parties with two wildly different bases and philosophies are pulling farther and farther apart — and are certain to double down on divisiveness heading into 2020.”

“The Democratic strategy of targeting women, minorities and the young was vindicated with the new House majority. We saw record liberal turnout in many suburbs.”

“The Republican strategy of targeting men, whites and rural voters was vindicated with the larger Senate majority. We saw record conservative turnout in rural Trump country.”

“President Trump plans to quickly focus on his reelection campaign following Tuesday’s midterm elections, believing his brand of divisive and confrontational politics will mobilize his supporters and carry him to a second term,” the Washington Post reports.

“Fresh off an 11-rally, six-day campaign swing through key conservative states, Trump has begun talking about holding Make America Great Again rallies early next year, two of the president’s advisers said. He continues to judge his success by crowd sizes — which were large throughout his recent campaign blitz — and applause. Even as he was on the trail for other Republicans, Trump often focused on himself, touting his accomplishments and taking shots at potential Democratic presidential challengers.”

New York Times: “Republicans gained some of their most important ground on Tuesday by electing several new senators who are opposed to abortion rights, a development that will help the party advance one of its bedrock issues.”

“By picking up Democratic-held Senate seats in Indiana, North Dakota and Missouri — and possibly elsewhere — the Republican majority will be decidedly further to the right on the issue. And no longer will the votes of two senators who support abortion rights — Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska — be as pivotal when it comes to confirming judges and passing legislation.”

The Hill: “Republican gains in the Senate make the process of confirming conservative justices significantly easier.”