November 7, 2018

NBC News: “Democrats were hoping Tuesday’s results would help them chart a course for the 2020 presidential race by clearly demonstrating that either mobilization (boosting turnout among liberals, minorities and other base Democratic voters) or persuasion (tacking to the center to try to win undecided voters) is the winning strategy in Trump’s America.”

“But instead of a clear signal, they got noise, with conflicting data that is sure to be cherry-picked by both wings of the party to argue the superiority of their side.”

Matt Grossman: “I do not see any clear patterns on messaging. Whether candidates talked more about health care, taxes or immigration does not seem predictive of outcomes. Each issue was likely effective mainly at convincing each party’s leaners to support their party’s candidates.”

“Democrats wrested control of governorships from Republicans in seven states on Tuesday including Wisconsin, where they ousted Scott Walker after eight tumultuous years as the state’s chief executive, and Kansas, a surprise victory in a longtime Republican stronghold,” the New York Times reports.

“But Republicans fended off strong Democratic challenges to hold on to the governorships of Florida, Ohio and Iowa, maintaining their control of three states likely to be crucial in the 2020 presidential elections.”

“The victories expanded the number of states with Democratic chief executives — an important consideration as legislatures begin the process of drawing congressional district lines. In addition to Kansas and Wisconsin, Democrats also picked up governor’s seats in Nevada, Illinois, Michigan, New Mexico and Maine.”

“Democrats have won back control of the House of Representatives, slicing through Republican-held suburbs where President Trump has proven toxic to undo a Republican majority once thought to be impervious until the next round of redistricting,” Politico reports.

“From Florida to Texas to Illinois, Republican incumbents who survived reelection in 2016 even as Trump lost their districts fell decisively to Democratic challengers who linked them to the president and attacked their votes on health care and taxes last year, delivering a check-and-balance message to the president.”

“The results sprang from a fundamental realignment of the Republican Party, which has withdrawn from its old suburban bastions under Trump and established new strength in rural areas.”

New York Times: “The divergent outcomes in the House and Senate — a Democratic takeover in one chamber, and Republican gains in the other — exposed an ever-deepening gulf separating rural communities from America’s cities and suburbs.”

“Female candidates for Congress made history on Tuesday night, with more than 100 women sweeping into office on the strength of a Democratic House takeover powered in large part by college-educated female voters,” Politico reports.

“The women winning House seats also marked several milestones for diverse representation beyond the gender divide, including the first Native American women in Congress and the first Muslim women in Congress. Their victories mark an undeniable leap forward toward representation on Capitol Hill that more closely resembles the divide among the U.S. population, although women still have a long way to go before reaching parity in both the House and Senate.”

NBC News: “No one could say voters were caught off guard this time. Turnout soared in comparison to prior midterms. And once again, many of the trends that helped elect Trump, even as he lost the popular vote, held true.”

“Just like in 2016, rural voters in 2018 turned out in droves to elect Senate candidates in states Trump won, like Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota and even purple Florida.

“But, in another echo of 2016, Trump did catastrophic damage to Republicans in the suburbs, long a traditional source of strength for the GOP. From Fairfax, Virginia, to Dallas, Texas, these angry voters made it clear early that Democrats would capture the House, even with a map whose gerrymandered lines strongly favored Republicans.”

San Diego Union-Tribune: “Rep Duncan Hunter (R-CA), facing re-election amid a federal prosecution for alleged stealing of $250,000 in campaign funds, was easily fighting off a re-election challenge on Tuesday from a Democrat with Mexican and Palestinian roots who struggled to connect with voters in strongly Republican parts of East County and North County.”

Buffalo News: “Rep. Chris Collins (R-NY), a Clarence Republican indicted on felony insider trading charges, narrowly won his bid for a fourth term Tuesday after one of the most unusual congressional campaigns in recent Western New York history.”

“At nearly 1 a.m., it got more unusual: Nathan McMurray, after earlier conceding defeat, called for a recount.”