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37 posts · Saturday
Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 191
Blue Wave Update
“Voters are deeply dissatisfied with President Donald Trump and his Republican Party heading into the Nov. 3 midterm elections, according to an Associated Press-NORC poll, and Democrats have built a clear advantage on pressing issues such as the cost of living and healthcare over just a few months.”
“But the survey also points to a bigger problem for both parties: Few registered voters think either party is able to solve important problems or help Americans like them.”
Politico: “Major Democratic contributors and small-dollar givers are flooding Senate hopefuls with cash, but in some of the most politically crucial states they could lose winnable gubernatorial races because they’re being so dramatically outspent by Republican nominees and their allied groups.”
“In former and future presidential battlegrounds Florida, Texas, Ohio, Georgia, Wisconsin and Nevada, the gubernatorial advertising gap is yawning. For the remainder of the campaign, Republicans are on track to outspend Democrats on television about 6-to-1 in Florida, more than 3-to-1 in Texas, 2.5-to-1 in Georgia, more than 2-to-1 in Wisconsin, and only slightly more narrowly in Ohio and Nevada.”
“Sen. Ruben Gallego’s leadership PAC has been subpoenaed as part of a federal investigation into the Arizona Democrat’s use of campaign cash to fund a luxurious lifestyle,” Politico reports.
“The Justice Department issued a federal grand jury subpoena — the existence of which has not been previously reported — on Aug. 21 to Gallego’s Juntos PAC. It demands that the PAC produce information related to ‘activities on or about’ Sept. 9, 2025, as well as records and statements Gallego submitted to the Senate Ethics Committee related to its probe into allegations of misuse of campaign funds, which the panel dismissed in June.”
“The subpoena says it relates to an ‘ongoing criminal investigation’ and that the requested records will be turned over to a grand jury.”
“Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Ro Khanna are heading to California to rally Saturday in support of an initiative that would place a one-time, 5% tax on the wealth of billionaires in the state,” ABC News reports.
“Their efforts to barnstorm the state come as early voting begins, and millions of dollars have been spent to kill the initiative.”
“The measure would affect roughly 200 of California’s billionaires, with the money going to cover federal Medi-Cal cuts. Gov. Gavin Newsom has become its most prominent opponent, arguing that the tax could be dodged by billionaires who could leave the state for another.”
Los Angeles Times: “Rather than prioritizing visits to battleground districts, which will decide which party controls Congress, Trump is rallying in Republican strongholds such as Texas, Oklahoma and Alabama, betting that his presence will be enough to energize a base that may be thinking about sitting out the election because his name isn’t on the ballot.”
“As one of the Supreme Court’s most stalwart conservative and prolific justices, Clarence Thomas’ views on the biggest cases of the day — from guns to race to religion — are rarely in doubt,” CNN reports.
“Yet when it comes to perhaps the most significant climate change-related case to reach the high court in nearly two decades, environmentalists aren’t yet writing Thomas off, even though he has consistently sided against them.”
“That’s because Thomas has in recent years staked out positions that align with a Colorado city that is suing Exxon and a Canadian energy company Suncor for damages caused by climate change.”
“President Trump’s top cabinet members huddled for hours at Camp David on Friday to discuss next steps in the Iran war and the Saudi-Houthi conflict in Yemen,” Axios reports.
“The highly unusual meeting was not announced by the Trump administration. The last time a similar meeting took place was in June 2025, just days before Israel went to war against Iran.”
“President Trump late Friday night said the administration would send just under $100 to more than 20 million senior citizens to help pay for Medicare benefits,” Axios reports.
“A month before the midterm, the president is adding another roughly $2 billion to a recent spate of promised refunds, rebates and dividends for various Americans.”
Nate Silver gives Democrats a 93% chance to win the House and a 71% chance to win the Senate.
FiftyPlusOne gives Democrats a 99% chance to win the House and a 72% chance to win the Senate.
DDHQ gives Democrats a 75% chance to win the House and a 54% chance to win the Senate.
“Four weeks to Election Day, a growing number of House Republicans privately fear their chances of holding onto the majority are vanishing and have begun focusing on how to limit the size of a potential Democratic wave,” CNN reports.
“Inside the House GOP, Republicans have watched with alarm as President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have sunk in their own internal polling — including on traditionally red turf — over the last two weeks.”
“Now, the House GOP is entering triage mode. Republicans are discussing pulling money from once-competitive races they see as too difficult to win, including Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa, Rep. Tom Keane in New Jersey, and an open seat in Nebraska.”
A new New York Times/Siena poll in Kansas finds Adam Hamilton (D) and Roger Marshall (R) tied in the U.S. Senate race, 45% to 45%, with David Graham (L) at 5%.
A new New York Times/Siena poll in Texas finds James Talarico (D) leading Ken Paxton (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 51% to 45%.
The same poll in Texas finds Gina Hinojosa (D) leading Greg Abbott (R) in the governor’s race, 49% to 46%.
A new New York Times/Siena poll in Alaska finds Mary Peltola (D) leading Dan Sullivan (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 50% to 43%.
The same poll in Alaska finds Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) leading Bernadette Wilson (R) in the governor’s race, 52% to 48%.
A new New York Times/Siena poll in Ohio finds Sherrod Brown (D) leading Jon Husted (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 49% to 46%.
The same poll in Ohio finds Amy Acton (D) leading Vivek Ramaswamy (R) in the governor’s race, 49% to 45%.
A new New York Times/Siena poll in Iowa finds Ashley Hinson (R) leading Josh Turek (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 47%.
The same poll in Iowa finds Rob Sand (D) leading Zach Lahn (R) in the governor’s race, 52% to 41%.
Nate Cohn: “On paper, the Democrats’ path to winning the Senate in November is daunting. They need to flip at least two seats that President Trump won by 11 percentage points or more — no party has pulled off a similar feat since 2008.”
“But in polls over the last month, the party’s path to the Senate hasn’t seemed daunting at all. Since Labor Day, Democrats have been tied or ahead in nearly every nonpartisan poll of not just two but five states that voted for Mr. Trump by between 11 and 16 points: Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Kansas.”
“Senate Republicans are suddenly rushing to save a Senate seat in Kansas,” Politico reports.
”On Friday, the Senate Leadership Fund, Senate Republicans’ top super PAC, reserved over $8 million in ads starting this weekend to prop up GOP Sen. Roger Marshall, according to tracking firm AdImpact.”
“The spending in a state where Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in 94 years comes amid a deteriorating national political environment for the GOP. The impact of spiking diesel and fertilizer prices driven by the war with Iran, coupled with President Donald Trump’s trade wars, have been acutely felt in the heartland.”
“Chinese officials made unusual demands that the U.S. accommodate Xi Jinping’s need for rest during a summit with President Trump, offering a rare glimpse of the 73-year-old leader’s emerging physical limitations, said people familiar with the visit planning,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Chief among the requests was a private room inside the West Wing for Xi to take a break between events, with only his wife, Peng Liyuan, permitted to join him, the people said. No others from the Chinese delegation were allowed to use the ‘hold room,’ as it was called—not even Cai Qi, Xi’s chief of staff, they added.”
Taegan Goddard
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.
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