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October 6, 2026

93 posts · Tuesday

Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 191

Blue Wave Update

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 191: Blue Wave Update

Why Brazil’s Markets Rallied

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“Global investors did not expect Flávio Bolsonaro to convincingly top the first round of Brazil’s presidential election, but now their expectations are running high that Latin America’s largest economy could soon be transformed,” Axios reports.

“Should the right-wing candidate win the run-off on Oct. 25, nearly all of South America would become aligned with the Trump administration on trade, national security and other issues.”

Washington Post: Trump kept silent in Brazil’s election. It might have helped his ally.

The Curse of the Incumbent

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David Graham: “When Donald Trump completed his own presidential comeback in the 2024 U.S. election, one common explanation was that a fundamental change had occurred in American politics, realigning demographics, parties, and policy for the long run.”

“A competing narrative, especially popular among comparative scholars, focused on a wave of anti-incumbent results in elections around the world. In this view, the results were more a rejection of Joe Biden’s administration and his vice president, Kamala Harris, than they were an embrace of Trump—and part of a broad trend of dissatisfaction among voters in many countries.”

“The specific motivations of the global anti-incumbent wave have never been entirely obvious. They include a post-COVID hangover but also deeper running dissatisfaction with democratic systems of government. Whatever the reasons, the trend is an important shift.”

Trump’s Populism Thrives Globally

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“President Donald Trump might be in a political hole, but his brand of conservative populist nationalism is flourishing across the globe,” Stephen Collinson reports.

“Rising star Flávio Bolsonaro’s shock win in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election Sunday bolstered Trump’s project of remaking the Western Hemisphere in his political image.”

“Populist right-wingers are also on the march in Europe, fueled by the same failures of foreign leaders to tackle the cost of living and deliver promised change that are haunting U.S. Republicans as the midterm elections draw near.”

The Guardian: U.S., Israeli and European far-right figures to gather for conference in Israel.

Obama Returns as Closer-in-Chief

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“Former President Barack Obama is set to reprise his nearly decadelong, post-presidential career as the Democratic Party’s closer-in-chief — not just on the campaign trail, but on the airwaves, too,” Politico reports.

“Last week, Obama cut ads for 24 Senate and gubernatorial campaigns… Expect them on your screens soon.”

“The 44th president is not only his party’s most enduringly popular figure, but also the most popular living president, boasting 57% favorability.”

An Autumn of Discontent Grips France

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“Striking public workers. Barricaded high schools. Blocked ports. Budget paralysis. Spiraling bond rates. Fears of a far-right takeover,” the New York Times reports.

“France suddenly finds itself engulfed by crisis — not a single spasm of unrest, but a cascade of disruption that is roiling city streets, trading floors and public offices across the country. France’s ‘rentrée,’ or ‘return,’ as the French call the back-to-school and back-to-work season, has been anything but orderly.”

“While the causes of the chaos may appear disparate, they can be traced to a common root: France’s two-decade-long struggle to fund its state, now exacerbated by high borrowing costs, surging fuel prices and political uncertainty, with jockeying underway to replace President Emmanuel Macron next spring.”

American Populism Is Coming for Corporate America

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“There’s a political horseshoe forming,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Voters from the left and the right are finding a common, populist ground targeting American corporations. And this anger is going beyond just Big Tech.”

“There is a growing embrace of a bigger government role that could crack down on credit-card companies, healthcare companies, housing and child care.”

Democratic 2028 Contenders Set to Discuss Party’s Future

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“A group of potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidates is heading to Denver days after the midterms to discuss the party’s future, in one of the party’s first major gatherings following the election,” CNN reports.

“Attendees will include former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and former U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel, as well as Sens. Ruben Gallego of Arizona, Chris Murphy of Connecticut, Raphael Warnock of Georgia and Elissa Slotkin of Michigan… The group of speakers also includes Govs. Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey and Abigail Spanberger of Virginia, plus several additional members of Congress.”

Big Majority Skeptical of Taxpayer-Funded Election Ads

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“An overwhelming majority of Americans said that it ​is inappropriate to use taxpayer funds for TV ads featuring the president around an election, in a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted as ‌spots with President Donald Trump air ahead of November’s midterms.”

“The six-day poll, which concluded on Monday, found that 86% of Americans — and four out of five Republicans — think it is inappropriate to use taxpayer money to pay for election-related TV ads featuring the president or his cabinet.”

Ohio Early Voting Begins with Congress On the Line

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“Early voting begins on Tuesday in Ohio, where the winners of November’s midterm elections will help determine whether ​Republicans or Democrats control the U.S. Congress for the next two years, given the state has one Senate seat and ‌two House seats seen as ‘Toss Ups’ by Cook Political Report,” Reuters reports.

Trump Rewrites Midterm Language

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“President Trump has long nicknamed his opponents, and now, as November approaches, he’s even trying to dictate the vocabulary around key issues,” Axios reports.

“Trump’s latest effort to reshape political language follows his longtime political strategy: Define the terms of the debate, and you gain power over the debate itself.”

“But as polling on those issues continues to haunt the president’s party, Trump’s new vocabulary may not be enough to change voters’ minds.”

Trump Says Iran Could ‘Take Out’ Los Angeles, San Diego

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“President Donald Trump suggested that Iran could ‘take out’ Los Angeles and San Diego during a political rally in Nebraska on Monday, drawing condemnation from California leaders, including Gov. Gavin Newsom, who called the remarks ‘deranged and dangerous,'” ABC News reports.

New York Times: Fury in California after Trump suggests Iran could “take out” L.A. or San Diego.

Susan Collins Stakes Future On Quiet Trump Pushback

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Semafor: “In other battleground Senate races this fall, voters must choose between a combative Democrat and a Trump-friendly Republican. Maine’s battle pits that type of Democrat, former statehouse leader Troy Jackson, against a rarer breed in Collins: She’s the only incumbent Senate Republican who criticizes Trump in public while using her personal connections to reverse some of his actions.”

“It’s not clear whether Collins’ backchanneling will be enough to satisfy anti-Trump voters in Maine — or at least enough of them to put her over the top yet again. But her strategy will become a national political story on Tuesday night, when Jackson and Collins kick off a series of Senate debates.”

Deep-Red Kansas Is Suddenly a Senate Battleground

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“In a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1932, Republican Sen. Roger Marshall suddenly finds himself in a competitive race with weeks to go until the 2026 midterm elections,” CNBC reports.

“Stubborn inflation, blowback from White House trade policies, and a formidable Democratic challenger in megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton have combined to turn ruby-red Kansas into an unexpected Senate battleground.”

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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