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October 18, 2026

53 posts · Sunday

Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 193

The Magnificent Seven

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 193: The Magnificent Seven

Mark Kelly Stays on the Campaign Trail

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“As he weighs a presidential campaign, Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) is putting the finishing touches on one of the potential 2028 field’s best midterm scorecards: Kelly has backed 74 candidates and campaigned in 16 states, all while laying down $14.1 million for Democrats this cycle,” Politico reports.

“Now, his midterm mission will take him to stops across five states, including the early Democratic nominating states Nevada, New Mexico and New Hampshire. He’ll also hit Maine, where he’ll stump for Democratic Senate nominee Troy Jackson, and his home state, where tomorrow he’ll stump alongside 18 endorsed state legislative candidates.”

White House Still Wants to Paint Eisenhower Building

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“The Trump administration acknowledges its plan to paint the Eisenhower Executive Office Building white would damage the historical character of the 138-year-old landmark and its relation to two other nationally significant properties, according to a new federal assessment,” the Washington Post reports.

“But the White House still wants painting to move ahead.”

Obama Condemns Trump’s Ilhan Omar Crackdown

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“Former President Barack Obama issued a forceful denunciation of the Trump administration’s legal pursuit of Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar over suspicions she fraudulently obtained U.S. citizenship decades ago,” Axios reports.

“Obama — who faced false claims for years from Donald Trump that he wasn’t an American citizen — is selective about when he weighs in on political issues or the president. His decision to speak out reflects his view that the DOJ raid on Omar’s home last week was a betrayal of American values.”

Said Obama: “The fact that any president, or any administration, is willing to engage in such transparent efforts to intimidate someone should outrage all Americans, regardless of how they feel about Congresswoman Omar’s political views.”

Trump Presses Ahead to Remake D.C. Golf Course

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“President Trump said his overhaul of a public golf course in Washington, D.C. would begin in mid-November, pressing ahead amid a legal battle that recently escalated when the administration felled hundreds of trees around the site,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The East Potomac Golf Links will be closed to play beginning Nov. 15, the president said in a Truth Social post Sunday that included a sketch of a new course on the site. The course is expected to be closed for about 15 months.”

Bloomberg: Trump says DC golf course project moving forward despite lawsuit.

Republicans’ Identity Crisis in Texas

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“Republicans in America’s biggest red state don’t usually have to play defense. But less than three weeks before election day, they are panicking. Ken Paxton, the scandal-plagued Senate candidate, is trailing James Talarico in the polls,” The Economist reports.

“Since early September, national Republicans have poured about $200m into ads in a bid to save his campaign—and their Senate majority. Greg Abbott, Texas’s three-term governor, has won past elections by double digits, but this year is being forced to fend off a Democratic challenger, Gina Hinojosa, outspending her six-to-one over the summer.”

Said President Trump, earlier this month: “We’re worried about Texas.”

Los Angeles Times: In tight Texas Senate race, Trump’s immigration crackdown tests Republicans’ hold on voters.

Trump Endorses Netanyahu Ahead of Re-Election Bid

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“President Trump on Sunday endorsed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for reelection, saying on social media that he ‘has been a Great Warrior Prime Minister, and an even greater Partner for Peace in combatting the Islamic Republic of Iran,'” CBS News reports.

“This is a coveted boost for Netanyahu because of Mr. Trump’s popularity in Israel but one that the U.S. leader withheld for months as their strategies in the Middle East diverged.”

Bloomberg: Israeli Arabs mobilize to oust Netanyahu in tightly fought vote.

Kristi Noem Poses with New Hunting Dog

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“Former Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem is being ridiculed over an online photo she posted of herself and her new hunting dog — with social-media users urging her not to off him, too,” the New York Post reports.

CNN: Kristi Noem quietly moves to her third job in Trump administration.

Zacharia Scrubs Trump Desk Photos of Possible Park Map

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“Katie Zacharia, who was ousted as White House press secretary on Friday, posted two photos that appear to have been digitally modified to conceal an image on President Donald Trump’s Oval Office desk,” the Washington Post reports.

“Local advocacy groups said that the image appeared to be East Potomac Park, where Trump wants to make major changes to a federally owned golf course — an initiative that is the subject of a lawsuit.”

Iran Warns It Has a ‘New Operational Plan’

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“A senior Iranian security official warned Sunday that Tehran has prepared a new response plan for any renewed U.S.-Israeli attack, as maritime authorities reported several separate attacks on commercial vessels around the Arabian Peninsula,” CNBC reports.

NewsNation: Oil tanker explodes in Strait of Hormuz as Iran vows waterway remains closed.

Decades-Old GOP Winning Streaks Are Suddenly at Risk

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“Democrats are running surprisingly competitive races in traditionally Republican territory across the country this midterm election cycle, and it’s putting GOP winning streaks at risk that stretch as far back as the 1930s,” Axios reports.

“Democrats hope ending political droughts in states such as Kansas, Texas and South Carolina will help make inroads in what has long been off-limits territory.”

NewsNation: Democrats make push in rural areas as midterms near.

Trump Approval Sinks to a Dismal 34%

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A new NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll finds President Trump’s approval at 34%, while 66% disapprove — a new low in this poll

Trump Approval
Approve 34%
 
Disapprove 66%
 
NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll · adults · ±2.6%
Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrats 55%
 
Republicans 45%
 
NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll · registered voters · ±1.6%

Why Identifying Likely Voters Is So Hard

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NBC News: “Predicting which party will prevail in the midterms isn’t as simple as picking up the phone and asking people how they will vote. About half of eligible voters are expected to turn out on Nov. 3, which means that a significant number of the people we reach in our polls will not vote.”

“Each firm has its own method of determining who is likely to vote, but all likely voter polls rely on two ways to identify that population: letting the voters tell us what they will do, or predicting whether someone will vote based on who they are. Sometimes these two things line up to produce similar outcomes, but this year, they push in opposite directions.”

“Because firms have to decide how to mix these two factors, since neither works perfectly, the results of a likely voter poll are affected by the choices different survey firms make.”

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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