October 21, 2026

“One of the biggest political shifts in the last presidential election is now swinging back against Donald Trump and the GOP — and it could cost them in some of the country’s most critical races,” Bloomberg reports.

“Latino voters have recoiled against the president this year after giving him surprising levels of support two years ago, pollsters in both parties say. The backlash is a major reason a Texas Senate seat is now in play and could sway other close Senate races. It’s also threatening GOP-leaning House seats.”

A new Marist poll in Michigan finds Abdul El-Sayed (D) leading Mike Rogers (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 50% to 48%.

The same poll in Michigan finds Jocelyn Benson (D) leading John James (R) in the governor’s race, 51% to 45%.

“If we don’t win, there’s no money. If we do win, you’re getting it.”

— President Trump, quoted by the Raleigh News & Observer, making promises of cash payouts of supporters in North Carolina.

A new Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll finds Democrats leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, 54% to 42%.

A new University of North Florida poll in Florida finds Byron Donalds (R) leading David Jolly (D) in the governor’s race, 49% to 47%.

The same poll in Florida finds Ashley Moody (R) leading Angie Nixon (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 49% to 45%.

A new The Atlanta Journal-Constitution/University of Georgia poll in Georgia finds Jon Ossoff (D) leading Mike Collins (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 40%.

A new CNN/SSRS poll finds Democrats leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, 49% to 39%.

“For the second time in two months, President Donald Trump is heading to South Carolina to try to save a Senate seat Republicans considered safe until recently,” MS NOW reports.

“The reliably red bastion hasn’t elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1998. But Republican Sen. Darline Graham is locked in an unexpectedly close race with Democrat Annie Andrews, and the GOP is pouring money and manpower into South Carolina in the campaign’s final stretch.”

“They have their work cut out.”

The Bulwark: Darline Graham’s seat isn’t safe. These voters explain why.

A new New York Times/Siena University poll finds Democrats leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot by 11 percentage points, 52% to 41%.

Nate Cohn: “Eleven is a big number. No party has won the national vote by such a large margin since the Democrats did so in 2008. While the outcome of the midterms will ultimately be decided seat by seat, anything like the results of the poll would probably yield a large Democratic House majority and give the party every opportunity to flip the red states they need to win the Senate, including in states where Democrats simply haven’t been competitive in recent years.”