The Cook Political Report has moved Texas from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up” in its Electoral College forecast.
Their updated forecast now matched the consensus forecast map.
“The Trump administration has recently removed the chief scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the nation’s premier scientific agency, installed new political staff who have questioned accepted facts about climate change and imposed stricter controls on communications at the agency,” the New York Times reports.
“The moves threaten to stifle a major source of objective United States government information about climate change that underpins federal rules on greenhouse gas emissions and offer an indication of the direction the agency will take if President Trump wins re-election.”
First Read: “Trump’s campaign has $10.1 million booked on television and radio ads between Wednesday and Election Day, compared to Biden’s $50 million.”
“The president can still count on a big assist from the RNC, which is spending another $12.6 million in key swing states like Florida, as well as from outside groups set to spend tens of millions more.”
“But when all aligned outside groups are combined with the campaign’s future spending, Democrats are set to outspend Republicans $109.8 million to $40.7 million on the presidential ad airwaves in the closing days. That’s nearly a 3-to-1 advantage, and it tells you everything you need to know how the political winds are blowing in these final days.”
Trump campaign spokesman Hogan Gidley was interviewed on CNN by Alisyn Camerota:
CAMEROTA: Hospitals in Wisconsin are near capacity. Does that give you any pause about going there and holding a big rally?
GIDLEY: No, it doesn’t… the vice president has the best doctors in the world around him.
Jonathan Bernstein: “With under a week to go, he’s still down about 9 percentage points nationally, and there’s little sign of any real movement in either direction. Early last week, I speculated that there was still enough time for significant changes to the race. That’s much less true now. With the debates over, it’s hard to imagine anything that would spark a shift of more than a percentage point or two. And not only is Trump is being badly outspent in the final days by former Vice President Joe Biden, the current spike in the coronavirus, an issue that plays very badly for the incumbent, is unlikely to help him as the few remaining undecided voters make up their minds.”
Nate Silver: “We’re sort of getting to the point where the only way Trump can win is with a major polling error, bigger than in 2016 (or if the election is stolen somehow).”
Washington Post: “In the aftermath of the White House outbreak that put the president in the hospital, his administration could have aggressively used contact tracing and genetic analysis to identify how the virus got into the White House and how far it had spread.”
“Instead, one month later, the Trump administration consistently failed to effectively deploy either technique in response to the superspreader event, leaving not just the president and his staff at risk, but the hundreds of people who were potentially exposed.”
From ABC News/Washington Post:
From Colby College:
From Data for Progress:
From Public Policy Polling:
From Glengariff Group:
From Public Policy Polling:
From OH Predictive Insights:
“The relationship between Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-NY) has hit a new low after the bitter fight over newly sworn in Justice Amy Coney Barrett,” The Hill reports.
“The deterioration of their relationship in recent months, a tense election year when control of the Senate in 2021 is at stake, raises questions about their ability to work together in the future and whether Democrats will change the chamber’s rules once in power to circumvent McConnell entirely.”
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News study has found no evidence, so far, of the kind of late surge toward President Trump among undecided voters that helped produce his unexpected wins in 2016.
When pollsters asked themselves how so many missed signs that Trump would win the 2016 election, one factor they identified was a late swing toward him in the last days of the campaign.
Politico: “The Wall Street Journal and Fox News have both reported finding no evidence that Joe Biden benefited from the Hunter Biden business dealings that have drawn scrutiny. More explicitly pro-Trump media outlets — OAN, Breitbart, Newsmax — have mostly shied away from publishing fresher, more salacious allegations. And conservative talking heads — pundits, politicians and loud MAGA Twitter personalities alike — have been more focused on the meta narrative around the laptop, arguing that mainstream media, social media companies and the deep state are conspiring to prevent President Trump’s reelection by suppressing the story.”
Vanity Fair runs an excellent profile of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY).
Said Ocasio-Cortez: “It’s not an accident that, every cycle, the boogeyman of the Democrats is a woman. A couple of cycles ago, it was Pelosi. Then it was Hillary, and now it’s me.”
“Republicans, win or lose next week, face a big — and growing — math problem,” Axios reports.
“They’re relying almost exclusively on a shrinking demographic (white men), living in shrinking areas (small, rural towns), creating a reliance on people with shrinking incomes (white workers without college degrees) to survive.”
“You can’t win elections without diversity, bigger population centers and sufficient money.”
Politico: “At least a dozen California Democrats are seriously in the mix, and their supporters, donors and staffers are jostling behind the scenes to make their case. In this deep-blue state, where no Republican has won statewide in 14 years, a Senate seat could be the closest it gets to a lifetime appointment.”
“When a Senate seat goes vacant in California, the governor can appoint a replacement without calling a special election, and Newsom’s pick would serve the remaining two years on Harris’ term before facing the voters with the huge advantage of incumbency. The governor does have the ability to name a caretaker and call a special election, but sources do not expect him to go that route.”
Politico: “As attempted comebacks go, it’s an audacious gambit. Rick Gates, the former Trump aide who pleaded guilty to conspiracy charges in the Robert Mueller probe — and then helped put other Trump associates in jail — hasn’t just launched a book tour aimed at clearing his name. He’s also started a new strategic consulting firm for companies looking to navigate the federal government.”
“By the time President Trump finished speaking to thousands of supporters at Omaha’s Eppley Airfield on Tuesday night and jetted away on Air Force One, the temperature had plunged to nearly freezing,” the Washington Post reports.
“But as long lines of MAGA-clad attendees queued up for buses to take them to distant parking lots, it quickly became clear that something was wrong.”
“The buses, the huge crowd soon learned, couldn’t navigate the jammed airport roads. For hours, attendees — including many elderly Trump supporters — stood in the withering cold, as police scrambled to help the most at-risk get to warmth.”
The Hill: “The White House science office listed ‘ending the COVID-19 pandemic’ as the top accomplishment of President Trump’s first term, even as the U.S. has set records for new daily infections and numerous hospitals across the country are stretched to their breaking points.”
Nate Cohn: “This was a pretty weird day of polling. We’re just a week from the election, and there were only two live-interview telephone surveys. And this eerie quiet has been going on for a couple of days now.”
“There’s a good explanation, though: the short period between the final debate and Election Day. That created a squeeze for pollsters because it wouldn’t necessarily leave enough time to do a poll both immediately after the debate and immediately before the election. Not surprisingly, most pollsters are choosing closer to the election.”
“That’s a trade I’m willing to make. If there had been a big news story or if something wild had happened at the debate, we might all be dying right now to find out what happened and we’d wish there were more polling this moment. As it is, I’m content to be patient and get a really clear look as close to Election Day as possible.”
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
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