Doug Sosnik: “The best indicator of the current state of the midterms is where the parties spend their time and money in the closing days of the campaign. In a Politico analysis of data from AdImpact, nearly two-thirds of advertising spending in the House is in districts held by Republican incumbents, with more than $110 million dollars spent in seats that Trump won by double digits in 2024.”
Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 188
Nothing to See Here
Trial Balloon · Ep. 188: Nothing to See Here
Xi Says He’ll Meet with Trump Twice More This Year
“Chinese President Xi Jinping wrapped up his state visit to Washington on Friday by announcing that he expects to meet President Donald Trump two more times before the end of the year, doubling the number of face-to-face discussions between the leaders of the world’s two largest economies in 2026,” the Associated Press reports.
“The promise of more meetings to come capped off a three-day state visit that has been criticized by some in the U.S. for being heavy on pomp and light on substance, though Trump said they discussed the war in Iran.”
Bloomberg: Trump claims productive meeting with Xi but offers no details.
The Best Place to Catch a Lawmaker
Washington Sun: “Duly elected members of Congress are constitutionally required to be human, and all humans are biologically required to pee. On voting days, a member who chooses to do so in the nearest suitable facility puts themselves in the path of the horde of people who desperately want information from them.”
“Aside from the Republican cloakroom — which provides lawmakers with cheap hot dogs and grilled cheeses — the members-only bathrooms off the House floor, adjacent to the lavish Speaker’s Lobby, are some of the only places near the floor where lawmakers are out of view from the Hill’s many nosy reporters.”
Pentagon Quietly Adds Dozens to Tally of Troops Wounded
“The Pentagon’s public tally of troops wounded during the Iran war was quietly increased by 37 this week without explanation from the Defense Department,” the Washington Post reports.
The 2026 Election Could Be the GOP’s Worst This Century
Aaron Blake: “The Republican Party’s two worst midterm elections in the 21st Century were in 2006 and 2018. In the former, an unpopular Middle Eastern war cost George W. Bush dearly. In 2018, voters balked at the upending of historic norms and chaotic style of a new president named Donald Trump.”
“The 2026 midterm election is now looking like it could be even worse for the GOP – by several metrics.”
NBC News: The economy helped Trump win in 2024. It could cost Republicans in 2026.
When More Money Stops Mattering
Join now to continue reading.
Members get exclusive analysis, bonus features and no advertising. Learn more.
The Republicans Are Bolting From Trump
“A few tentative displays of independence among Republicans have expanded in recent days into a stampede, as candidates furiously distance themselves from President Trump ahead of the midterm elections,” The Atlantic reports.
Said one Texas-based political consultant: “This is shaping up to be a nightmare political environment for every Republican, everywhere—period, full stop.”
“Noting that gas prices across the country are on average $4.50 a gallon, the consultant described the atmosphere as ‘a fucking disaster for anyone in a competitive race.'”
Pentagon Can Label Anthropic a National Security Risk
“The Trump administration can blacklist AI firm Anthropic from Pentagon contracts, a federal appeals court ruled Friday in a decision that expands executive branch power to designate U.S. businesses as national security risks,” Politico reports.
Reuters: U.S. appeals court declines to block Pentagon’s blacklisting of Anthropic.
Ossoff Holds Comfortable Lead in Georgia
A new InsiderAdvantage poll finds Jon Ossoff (D) leading Mike Collins (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 50% to 42%.
Senate Race
Jon Ossoff (D) 50%
Mike Collins (R) 42%
New Jersey Lt. Governor Will Resign
New Jersey Lt. Gov. Dale Caldwell (D) “will resign after a damning internal investigation substantiated allegations that he sexually harassed a female staffer and repeatedly violated state ethics rules, the New Jersey Globe has confirmed,” New Jersey Globe reports.
“Caldwell’s decision comes one day after Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D) called for his resignation and gave him until Friday to step down. His departure averts an unprecedented constitutional confrontation over how to remove a sitting lieutenant governor, an independently elected official whom the governor cannot simply fire.”
Saudis Have Not Ruled Out Developing Nuclear Weapons
“Classified documents provided to Congress include an assessment by the U.S. intelligence community that Saudi Arabia has not ruled out the option of developing a nuclear weapons program,” the Washington Post reports.
“The sobering intelligence outlook has compounded concerns from some U.S. lawmakers about President Donald Trump‘s agreement to assist Saudi Arabia with establishing a civilian nuclear program, which they fear could enable the development of a nuclear weapon and spark an arms race in the volatile Middle East.”
Trial Balloon Listener Survey
Join now to continue reading.
Members get exclusive analysis, bonus features and no advertising. Learn more.
Another Bonus Quote of the Day
“Since the epicenter of ‘power’ is not Washington, D.C. but Heaven, every morning I listen to a few chapters of the Bible on audiobook, and pray for God’s wisdom and strength in whatever situations may arise.”
— White House aide Natalie Harp, in an interview with the Washingtonian, on what she does on her own time.
Congressional Approval at Just 17%
A new Unite America/RealClear Opinion Research poll finds U.S. Congress’ approval at 17%, while 59% disapprove.
Congress Approval
Approve 17%
Disapprove 59%
The same poll finds Donald Trump’s approval at 34%, while 54% disapprove.
Trump Approval
Approve 34%
Disapprove 54%
Three Big Questions as GOP Nears Moment of Truth
“With midterms 39 days away and the outlook for President Trump’s party looking increasingly bleak, top Republicans say they’re focused on three big questions for the final stretch,” Axios reports.
- “Are their attack ads working? Republicans expect a wave of private polling in early October to reveal whether their massive financial advantage is cutting into Democrats’ leads.”
- “Who gets cut loose? Republicans concede they’ll have to make painful spending decisions by early October.”
- “What does Trump do? The president and his political team remain one of the midterms’ biggest question marks. Trump’s team said early this year that he’d campaign weekly for GOP candidates. That didn’t happen.”
New Poll Shows Democrats in Key States Feel Unified
“In the two battleground states with the most bitter and complicated Senate primaries, Maine and Michigan, Democrats emerged feeling stronger and more unified,” according to new polls from The New York Times and Siena University.
“More than 60 percent of Democrats or independents who said they lean toward the Democratic Party in each state said they thought the primary process strengthened the party through vigorous debate. Only about one-quarter said they thought the process exposed divisions and made Democrats weaker.”
“Beyond the primary battles, the polls hinted at signs of unity emerging around the party’s direction and ideology among Democratic voters nationally and in the battleground states.”
Republicans in Congress Try a Pre-Election Pivot
“With less than 40 days until the midterm elections, Republicans in Congress are distancing themselves from President Trump and scrambling to show they are working to address the high cost of living, concerned that their failure to do either so far may cost them their majorities in November,” the New York Times reports.
“Mr. Trump’s approval ratings are sagging as Americans face higher energy costs and general economic uncertainty because of the war in Iran, giving Democrats a clear advantage in national polls. But the Senate has spent some of its final days in session ahead of the election defeating a bid to halt the war and working on a sweeping new regulatory framework for collegiate sports.”
ICE Wasted Millions On Detention Without a Plan
“ICE has received more than $75 billion to expand operations since President Trump returned to office — and wasted millions on scaled-back and mismanaged projects, a new GAO report found,” Axios reports.
“In rushing to execute Trump’s mass deportation agenda, the agency failed to properly develop a strategic plan.”
