Political Wire

The Political Incentives Have Shifted on Guns

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Punchbowl News: “In the long struggle over guns and gun control, there’s finally a window open for a compromise – albeit a small window with room for only a narrow accord.”

“Democrats are working within the confines of a razor-thin majority in Washington, dropping their calls for big policy changes in favor of small progress. And some Republicans have accepted that opposing any and all changes to gun laws is both politically and substantively unacceptable.”

“It has led to an almost head-snapping sense in the Capitol that President Joe Biden may actually get a package of gun-control laws to sign in the next several months, ahead of the midterm elections.”

Earlier for members: Why Gun Reform May Pass This Time

How San Francisco Became a Failed City

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Nellie Bowles: “I do need you to love San Francisco a little bit, like I do a lot, in order to hear the story of how my city fell apart—and how it just might be starting to pull itself back together.”

“Because yesterday, San Francisco voters decided to turn their district attorney, Chesa Boudin, out of office. They did it because he didn’t seem to care that he was making the citizens of our city miserable in service of an ideology that made sense everywhere but in reality. It’s not just about Boudin, though. There is a sense that, on everything from housing to schools, San Francisco has lost the plot—that progressive leaders here have been LARPing left-wing values instead of working to create a livable city. And many San Franciscans have had enough.”

A Possible Smoking Gun for Trump’s January 6 Crime

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Earlier this year, a federal judge concluded in a ruling in the probe of the January 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol that Donald Trump probably broke the law with his plot that day to overturn the election.

As U.S. District Judge David Carter wrote in March:

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Kinzinger Takes Credit for Taking Down Madison Cawthorn

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“Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-NC) and his allies, looking back at the polarizing conservative’s primary loss to GOP nominee Chuck Edwards last month, are pointing fingers at Rep. Adam Kinzinger’s (R-IL) PAC. And the retiring Kinzinger is more than happy to take credit for Cawthorn’s demise,” Politico reports.

Said Kinziner: “It’s a huge badge of honor, especially because before I announced I wasn’t running again, Madison did some tweet where he said he personally was going to take down my political career. So… I will say as a side note, it is pretty ironic.”

Biden and Bolsonarro Agree to Awkward First Meeting

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“Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and his U.S. counterpart Joe Biden have never seen eye-to-eye, but they have agreed to an awkward, hastily arranged meeting in Los Angeles on Thursday for their own different motives,” Reuters reports.

“Biden reached out to Bolsonaro, a far-right populist, in a last-ditch attempt to save a hemispheric summit, while Bolsonaro will use a meeting with the world’s most powerful man to boost his image as he heads into a tough re-election campaign.”

Democrats Fear Merrick Garland May Have Missed Moment

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“Top Democratic leaders in Washington and across the country fear that Donald Trump might be running for president again by the time Attorney General Merrick Garland decides whether to prosecute him and others in his orbit for the January 6 insurrection — and that any action by the Biden Justice Department could be cast by Republicans as little more than a political vendetta,” CNN reports.

“Two dozen leading Democrats in Washington and across the country tell CNN that Garland may have missed his moment to bring criminal charges against top Trump administration officials before it would get caught up in the 2024 presidential campaign jockeying set to begin later this year, after the midterm elections.”

Another Election Denier Will Be on November Ballot

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Washington Post: “Last night, Audrey Trujillo (R) became the latest 2020 election denier to win her party’s nomination to oversee a state’s elections.”

“The New Mexico Republican is part of a wave of candidates beholden to conspiracy theories about election hacking and fraud who are seeking to lead elections in more than a dozen states — including in many states that were decisive in President Biden’s victory.”

How to Tell the Squad and the MAGA Caucus Apart

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A high-ranking GOP staffer talks to Thomas Edsall:

“They are different in that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and the ‘squad’ seem to me to be more ‘idealist.’ They actually do want to legislate/accomplish the very far left social ideas they propose. They are willing to cause Pelosi headaches, but they have shown they are not going to go so far as to jeopardize the government (operations) and safety net that so many families depend on from a working government.”

On the other hand: “I hate to use a loaded word here but I can’t think of another one, the ‘MAGA Caucus’ members operate more like bullies — legislative bullies. If they have the opportunity they will gladly hold bills/government funding hostage for the sake of populism and social media. They would take pride in ‘shooting the hostage’ as that would be very popular with their tribal base and their social media.”

House GOP Books $52 Million In Ads for the Fall

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“House Republicans’ campaign arm is laying down its first round of fall TV ad reservations, a $52.3 million investment that sketches out a path back to the majority in 2023,” Politico reports.

“The bulk of the buy, which is spread across more than two dozen media markets, is targeting Democratic-held seats — a signal that a favorable political environment has created a plethora of pickup opportunities for the GOP.”

Trump Hits Another Snag In Republican Primaries

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Politico: “Two weeks after Donald Trump was humiliated in Georgia’s primaries, a lower-profile collection of Republicans on Tuesday were putting a finer point on the limitations of Trump’s influence over the GOP.”

“It’s still enormous, of course. But five of the 35 House Republicans who voted to create a bipartisan commission to investigate the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol appeared on ballots on Tuesday. And all of them appear to have survived to fight another day.”

Mixed Reaction to Forgiving Student Debt

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A new Politico/Morning Consult poll reveals a mixed reaction to reports that President Biden is preparing to forgive $10,000 in student loan debt for Americans who make less than $150,000 a year (or for married couples making less than $300,000):

  • 29% of voters felt that the income threshold ($150,000 for individuals, $300,000 for couples) was the “right one” to be forgiven.
  • 13% felt that threshold was too high.
  • 9% felt that threshold was too low.
  • 35% feel that $10,000 in student loan debt should not be forgiven for people at any income level.

New Booster Shot Works Better Against Omicron

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“Moderna released results on Wednesday on an updated coronavirus vaccine targeting the Omicron variant, calling it ‘our lead candidate’ to serve as a booster shot in the fall,” the New York Times reports.

“The firm’s researchers tested a booster dose combining the original vaccine with one targeted specifically against Omicron, the variant that became dominant last winter. They found that the combination produced 1.75 times as much neutralizing antibodies against Omicron as the existing Moderna vaccine did alone.”

About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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