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Today’s GOP Is Like the Democratic Party of the 1850s

November 12, 2017 at 9:00 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Huffington Post: “The Democratic Party of James Buchanan, from 1855-1860, appeared ― on the surface ― to be ascendant in the American politics of the day. They controlled the presidency, majorities in the Congress and the majority of state legislatures and governorships. Their great rival party, the Whigs, had collapsed into internal factions after their 1856 electoral loss and the new Republican Party was nascent. They were so powerful that they controlled both the entire south and significant parts of the North ― and there was, of course, no ‘west coast blue wall’ in the 1850s.”

“Nonetheless, the supposed dominance of the Democratic Party in the late 1850s papered over and masked critical internal divisions that would destroy the party in 1860 and leave it nearly irrelevant at the presidential level for almost 70 years.”

“Basically, those critical internal divisions were between the Southern Democrats, who were unified behind slavery and ‘southern values’ and the Northern Democrats, who were much warier of slavery and were much more unified around economic concerns. Their uneasy alliance collapsed entirely in 1860, when the party actually split on the ballot between the Northern and Southern Democrats, handing Lincoln the election. The south seceded, Lincoln won the Civil War and the party didn’t recover until FDR. Indeed, the collapse of the party was so catastrophic that the only times the Democrats won the presidential election between 1856 and 1932 were typo non-contiguous terms for the idiosyncratic Grover Cleveland, and when Teddy Roosevelt split the Republican vote off Taft in 1912 and threw the election to Woodrow Wilson.”

“History repeats itself in inexact cycles, and the Republican Party of today bears remarkable similarities to the Democratic Party of the 1850s.”

Filed Under: Political History

The GOP Has Become the Trump Party

November 12, 2017 at 8:05 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Dan Balz: “In the days after the Virginia election, SurveyMonkey, the online polling firm, asked people whether they thought the Republicans should become the party of Trump or fight against becoming the party of Trump. Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, almost 8 in 10 said the GOP should become the party of Trump. The rest of the electorate strongly disagrees.”

“The implications of that are clear, as Gillespie found during the Virginia race. For Republican candidates, crossing the president risks the ire of the Trump base and depressed turnout. Embracing him too fully risks energizing the opposition. Trump won’t be on the ballot until 2020. In the meantime, he has made the GOP his party, and those who share the label are left to deal with the consequences.”

Filed Under: Republicans

Colleague Says Moore Regularly Dated High School Girls

November 12, 2017 at 7:42 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A former colleague of GOP Senate candidate Roy Moore said that it was “common knowledge” that the Alabama Republican dated high school girls when he worked in the Etowah County District Attorney’s Office in the 1980s, The Hill reports.

Said Teresa Jones: “It was common knowledge that Roy Moore dated high school girls, everyone we knew thought it was weird. We wondered why someone his age would hang out at high school football games and the mall… but you really wouldn’t say anything to someone like that.”

Politico: Moore backers stand by their man.

Filed Under: 2017 Campaign Tagged With: AL-Sen, Roy Moore


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Trump Unloads on Critics After Disciplined Week

November 12, 2017 at 7:10 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“For the last week on the road, President Trump had been measured, disciplined and studiously scripted as he picked his way through the geopolitical minefields of Asia,” the New York Times reports.

“Then came the weekend.”

“In a stream of tweets on Sunday, the president said those who wanted to investigate his ties to Russia were ‘haters and fools,’ ridiculed ‘crooked’ Hillary Clinton’s ill-fated effort to reset relations with Russia and fired back at North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, for calling him old, saying that he could call Mr. Kim ‘short and fat’ — but had restrained himself.”

“That followed a freewheeling session with reporters on Air Force One on Saturday.”

Filed Under: White House

Trump Team Begins Drafting Middle East Peace Plan

November 12, 2017 at 7:09 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Trump and his advisers have begun developing their own concrete blueprint to end the decades-old conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, a plan intended to go beyond previous frameworks offered by the American government in pursuit of what the president calls ‘the ultimate deal,'” the New York Times reports.

“After 10 months of educating themselves on the complexities of the world’s most intractable dispute, White House officials said, Mr. Trump’s team of relative newcomers to Middle East peacemaking has moved into a new phase of its venture in hopes of transforming what it has learned into tangible steps to end a stalemate that has frustrated even presidents with more experience in the region.”

Filed Under: Foreign Affairs

How Last Week’s Elections Will Impact the Tax Bill

November 12, 2017 at 7:08 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Stan Collender: “Individual members are at least hinting — and many are openly saying — that the Republican Party is no longer as important as their personal reelection prospects. That means the bill’s enactment may not be as important to them as preventing locally politically noxious individual provisions — like the deductibility of state and local taxes  — from becoming law.”

“With support for the Republican party no longer a guaranteed political lever, the leadership has little choice but to try to appease senators and representatives by changing proposed tax provisions so the recalcitrant members have something they can take back to their constituents to demonstrate their personal value. But in a tax bill of this size that has budget restrictions that limit what may be done, almost every modification made for one representative or senator typically will cause political pain for another and, therefore, no net increase in support.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes

Trump Remaking the Judiciary at a Rapid Pace

November 12, 2017 at 7:01 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “Nearly a year later, that plan is coming to fruition. Mr. Trump has already appointed eight appellate judges, the most this early in a presidency since Richard M. Nixon, and on Thursday, the Senate Judiciary Committee voted along party lines to send a ninth appellate nominee — Mr. Trump’s deputy White House counsel, Gregory Katsas — to the floor.”

“Republicans are systematically filling appellate seats they held open during President Barack Obama’s final two years in office with a particularly conservative group of judges with life tenure. Democrats — who in late 2013 abolished the ability of 41 lawmakers to block such nominees with a filibuster, then quickly lost control of the Senate — have scant power to stop them.”

Filed Under: Judiciary, White House

Extra Bonus Quote of the Day

November 11, 2017 at 1:13 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Look, I’m sorry, but even before these reports surfaced, Roy Moore’s nomination was a bridge too far.”

— Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN), on Twitter.

Filed Under: 2017 Campaign Tagged With: AL-Sen

The Democratic Wave In Virginia Was Real

November 11, 2017 at 12:51 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

The RealClearPolitics polling average suggested Ralph Northam would win the Virginia governor’s race by three points. Instead he won by nine points.

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Filed Under: 2017 Campaign, Members Tagged With: VA-Gov

Bonus Quote of the Day

November 11, 2017 at 12:25 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Believe it or not, even when I’m in Washington or New York, I do not watch much television. I know they like to say that. People that don’t know me, they like to say I watch television — people with fake sources. You know, fake reporters, fake sources. But I don’t get to watch much television. Primarily because of documents. I’m reading documents. A lot. And different things. I actually read much more — I read you people much more than I watch television.”

— President Trump, quoted by Axios.

Filed Under: White House

Republicans Work to Block Moore’s Path

November 11, 2017 at 12:22 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Senate Republicans scrambled on Friday to find a way to block Roy Moore’s path to the Senate, exploring extraordinary measures to rid themselves of their own nominee in Alabama after accusations emerged that he had made sexual advances on four teenage girls when he was in his 30s,” the New York Times reports.

“Republican senators and their advisers, in a flurry of phone calls, emails and text messages, discussed fielding a write-in candidate, pushing Alabama’s governor to delay the Dec. 12 special election or even not seating Mr. Moore at all should he be elected. In an interview, Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the majority leader, declined to say whether he would agree to seat Mr. Moore should he win.”

For members: Republicans Lose Either Way In Alabama

Filed Under: 2017 Campaign Tagged With: AL-Sen

McConnell Admits Some May Get Tax Increases

November 11, 2017 at 11:56 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) acknowledged “that the Republican tax plan might result in a tax hike for some working Americans, saying he ‘misspoke’ days earlier when he said that ‘nobody in the middle class is going to get a tax increase’ under the Senate bill,” the New York Times reports.

Said McConnell: “I misspoke on that. You can’t guarantee that absolutely no one sees a tax increase.”

“The Senate bill unveiled on Thursday would raise taxes on millions of middle-class families, according to a preliminary New York Times analysis. The plan would also disproportionately benefit high earners and corporations. Still, middle-class earners would fare better under the Senate proposal than its counterpart in the House.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes

Republicans Have a Big Retirement Problem

November 11, 2017 at 9:20 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Four more House Republicans have announced in the last two weeks that they won’t run for re-election next year, bringing to 25 the total number of Republicans who are stepping aside.

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Filed Under: 2018 Campaign, Members

Trump’s Channels to Russia

November 11, 2017 at 8:59 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jonathan Chait: “There are several channels through which Donald Trump’s campaign apparently cooperated with Russian efforts to help him win the presidency. The first, and best known, is a Trump Tower meeting in June 2016 to pursue Russian promises of providing dirt on Hillary Clinton. A second is Roger Stone, a frequent Trump adviser who had clear advance notice of the publication of stolen emails. A third is Trump himself openly asking Russia to obtain Clinton’s State Department emails. The final channel is the efforts by Cambridge Analytica, the campaign’s data firm. This channel is less well known to the public, in part because reporting about it has been dominated by The Wall Street Journal, and its stories hidden behind a paywall. But Cambridge Analytica’s role has come into much clearer focus.”

“Two weeks ago, the Journal reported that Alexander Nix, the CEO of Cambridge Analytica, reached out to WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange to help him better organize the stolen Democratic emails his site was publishing. On Friday, the Journal found that this contact came as Cambridge Analytica was joining the Trump campaign.”

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign

Quote of the Day

November 11, 2017 at 8:44 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“This artificial Democratic hit job gets in the way and that’s a shame because people will die because of it. And it’s a pure hit job.”

— President Trump, quoted by Politico, suggesting people will die because of the investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election.

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign

Trump Says He Believes Putin Didn’t Interfere In Election

November 11, 2017 at 8:34 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Trump suggested “he’s done confronting Russian President Vladimir Putin over his country’s election meddling since it’s insulting to the Russian leader,” CNN reports.

“Trump said he took Putin at his word that Russia did not seek to interfere in the U.S. presidential election last year, despite a finding from US intelligence agencies that it did. The fraught relations between the two leaders was underscored anew when Putin’s spokesman said election meddling did not come up when they spoke, even though Trump said it did.”

Said Trump: “He said he didn’t meddle. He said he didn’t meddle. I asked him again. You can only ask so many times. Every time he sees me, he says, ‘I didn’t do that.’ And I believe, I really believe, that when he tells me that, he means it. I think he is very insulted by it.”

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign, Foreign Affairs Tagged With: Russia, Vladimir Putin

Murdoch Has Offered to Buy CNN

November 11, 2017 at 8:12 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rupert Murdoch telephoned AT&T Chief Executive Randall Stephenson twice in the last six months and offered to buy cable network CNN, Reuters reports.

CNN has become the focal point in antitrust approval of AT&T’s $85.4 billion deal to buy Time Warner Inc, hatched in October 2016.

Filed Under: Media Buzz

Brother Says Moore Being Persecuted Like Jesus

November 11, 2017 at 8:12 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Roy Moore’s brother compared the U.S. Senate candidate to Jesus Christ in an interview, saying that the Alabama Republican is being persecuted “like Jesus” in the wake of accusations of sexual misconduct with a 14-year-old girl, the Huffington Post reports.

Jerry Moore said that allegations about his brother’s history with teenagers when Roy Moore was in his 30s are “not true at all.”

He added: “These women are going to… have to answer to God for these false allegations.”

Filed Under: 2017 Campaign Tagged With: AL-Sen, Roy Moore

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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