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November Surprises

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 192: November Surprises

The GOP’s Harvest of Discontent

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“Farmers angry over high diesel prices and spiking fertilizer costs who voted thrice for Donald Trump are questioning their allegiance not only to him — but the GOP,” Politico reports.

Said GOP strategist Ron Bonjean: “Farmers are patient people by nature, but patience isn’t an economic policy.”

“Even if Republicans eke out victories in close Senate contests in Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas, the races portend trouble for VP JD Vance — or whoever lands the party’s 2028 nomination — if the administration doesn’t start winning them back. (Iowa has the same six electoral votes as Nevada.).”

Some Trump Voters No Longer Admit to Voting for Him

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G. Elliot Morris: “Last month, I showed that error in how Americans report who they voted for in the 2024 election could be causing polls to underestimate support for the Democrats in the U.S. House generic ballot.”

“What’s going on here is that many pollsters now weight their samples so that the share of respondents who say they voted for Trump in 2024 matches the share of all voters who actually did.”

“However, if some Trump voters who have soured on him stop saying they voted for him, the people still claiming a Trump vote are a more loyal group than Trump’s real 2024 coalition. Weighting them back up to Trump’s actual share of the 2024 vote would artificially inflate the size of the super-MAGA group of voters in the electorate.”

AOC Heads to Maine

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“Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (D-NY) is heading to Portland, Maine, to stump for Democrat Troy Jackson at a student town hall in the final sprint of the state’s closely watched Senate race,” Politico reports.

“AOC’s the latest progressive to campaign for Jackson, following Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT) in recent weeks.”

Ohio Governor’s Race Now Leans Democratic

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Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Democrats are now at least narrowly favored in our ratings in enough states to win an elusive majority of state governorships.”

“The most notable rating change comes in the open Ohio governorship, which has been in the national spotlight because of an explosive—and desperate—attack ad by Vivek Ramaswamy (R) against Amy Acton (D).”

“In other changes, Democratic odds improve in Michigan, while a pair of open, red state seats move onto the periphery of the playing field.”

Ohio Governor’s Race Is Going Off the Rails

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“Ohio is the seventh most populous state in the country, and its annual GDP is close to $1 trillion. It has 27 Fortune 500 companies, some of the country’s best universities (pipe down, Michigan), the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame, the Pro Football Hall of Fame, and two NFL teams, two MLB teams, an NBA team and an NHL team,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The issue currently dominating the governor’s race there is…none of those things.”

“It’s about horrific allegations regarding Democratic candidate Amy Acton’s childhood and an ad put out by GOP candidate Vivek Ramaswamy. The ad features comments from Acton’s estranged mother. The controversial ad has been elevated by Donald Trump Jr. and—on Wednesday—Vice President JD Vance, who called it ‘the biggest controversy.'”

Politico Corrects Report After White House Threat

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When faced with a threat from the White House to retract a story or suffer “unspecified consequences,” Politico issued a correction:

“An earlier version of this report, including its headline, mischaracterized the role White House chief of staff Susie Wiles played in then-press secretary Katie Zacharia’s interview with Sean Hannity on Fox News. Politico’s follow-up reporting indicates she did not play a direct role in setting up the interview.”

It’s Time to Take Starlink Away From Elon Musk

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Paul Krugman: “No private individual should, or indeed even have the capability to, make national security policy. Slowing down Starlink was, in effect, a U.S. intervention in a foreign conflict. It helped Russia, our long-time adversary, and hobbled Ukraine, during a very critical time in this war. It also helped Russia at a time when Putin is increasingly emboldened to menace Europe through acts of sabotage, intimidation and support of the extreme right such as the AfD in Germany.”

James Talarico Narrowly Leads in Texas

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A new Nexstar Media/Emerson College Polling poll finds James Talarico (D) leading Ken Paxton (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 46%, with Ted Brown (L) at 1%.

Senate Race
James Talarico (D) 48%
 
Ken Paxton (R) 46%
 
Nexstar Media/Emerson College Polling poll · likely voters · ±3%
Governor’s Race
Greg Abbott (R) 49%
 
Gina Hinojosa (D) 45%
 
Nexstar Media/Emerson College Polling poll · likely voters · ±3%

Both Parties Are Welcoming Trump in Iowa

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“President Donald Trump will touch down on Thursday in Iowa, the site of perhaps the tightest Senate race in the country. Strangely enough, both candidates are welcoming him,” Semafor reports.

“Only one, Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, will be at his rally on Thursday, but Democrats are banking that Trump’s presence helps them due to his unpopularity.”

Said Democratic candidate Josh Turek: “It’s good… He needs to see what the policies, like the tariffs and the war in Iran, cuts to healthcare, have done to a state like Iowa.”

MS NOW: Trump rallies in Iowa where farmers have been hit hard by tariffs and rising fuel prices.

Young Voters Swing Back to Democrats

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“In the last presidential election, Democrats’ support among young voters was their lowest in two decades. Two years later, polls show that 18-to-29-year-old voters are returning to the party in large numbers,” the New York Times reports.

“Nationwide, young voters now favor the Democratic candidate for Congress in their district by 44 percentage points, compared with a 10-point margin two years ago.”

Republicans Have Big Post-Election Plans

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“Republican leaders are barreling towards a lame-duck period when they plan to fund the government, address the debt ceiling and push through a must-pass defense authorization bill — all while tempering the expectations of members who have their sights set on a reconciliation package many believe won’t materialize,” the Washington Sun reports.

“The party in power is staring down a lengthy must-do list and an even lengthier wish list, especially if they lose one or both chambers come Nov. 3. While the midterm results will determine the top priorities, members are already fretting about the looming issue of fitting 10 pounds into a 5-pound sack.”

Said one senior Senate Republican aide: “I think our appetite’s definitely going to be bigger than what our stomach can hold on this one.”

Democrats Eye Trump’s Equity Stake Playbook

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“As President Donald Trump continues buying government stakes in private companies, the rest of Washington is starting to appreciate the power of his new tool,” Semafor reports.

“The Trump administration has so far announced 43 equity stakes in firms producing everything from minerals to semiconductors, 36 of which were negotiated without explicit legal authority — and more are yet to come. The administration may be negotiating even more stakes under the radar, since SEC filings for unrelated deals mention the possibility of warrants.”

“Unwinding the administration’s investments would prove legally and politically difficult — but Democrats likely won’t want to, at least not right away. They’re already weighing how to use equity stakes for their own ends, signaling that Trump’s government intervention in the private sector may be the start of a permanent trend.”

Trump’s Tariffs Loom Over Maine Senate Race

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CNBC: “Few states have been as vulnerable in the U.S.-Canada trade war as Maine, which sends more than 40% of its exports to the U.S.’s northern neighbor. Those challenges are also piling on top of cost-of-living issues that were already spiraling, especially relating to things like home heating oil, on which Maine depends more than any other state.”

“As a result, tariffs specifically — and affordability concerns more broadly — are center stage in this year’s ‘toss up’ Senate race between GOP incumbent Sen. Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson, a former president of the Maine Senate.”