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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192

November Surprises

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 192: November Surprises

U.S. Troops and Diplomats Evacuating Middle East Posts

October 21, 2026 · 5:46 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The U.S. military has quietly been scaling back its troop presence at bases across the Middle East in recent days, and the State Department is ordering a further reduction in staff at multiple diplomatic posts in the region,” NBC News reports.

“The reduction of American forces and diplomatic personnel is similar to drawdowns at bases and embassies that the Pentagon and State Department initiated around the start of the war with Iran in February, the sources said. They said the moves are in response to ongoing threats in the region, including from Iran.”

Mediaite: Trump to order families home from Gulf embassies amid war worries.

Foreign Affairs, National Security

Trump Asks Justices to Allow Border Wall Construction

October 21, 2026 · 5:42 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The Trump administration on Wednesday asked the Supreme Court to allow it to move forward with construction of a border wall along hundreds of miles in the Big Bend region of southwest Texas,” the New York Times reports.

“A federal judge in Texas had blocked construction of the barriers, which had drawn local objections. In an emergency application to the justices, Solicitor General D. John Sauer urged the justices to intervene and allow the project to proceed.”

Immigration, Judiciary, White House

The White House Blame Game Starts Early

October 21, 2026 · 5:16 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Trump White House aides have started to cast about for a scapegoat to offer the president in the event of bad midterm election losses, as Republicans stare down brutal predictions in key House and Senate races, sources familiar with the matter say,” Wired reports.

“Republican political operatives say privately that the real blame lies with Trump for starting the Iran war in an election year, causing higher prices across the board and prompting a nationwide voter backlash, the sources say.”

Said one Republican operative: “Clearly it’s the president’s fault.”

“But Trump aides also know, for obvious reasons, they cannot say publicly or tell the president behind closed doors that his own policy decisions are at fault as they contemplate losing not just the House majority, but possibly the Senate.”

2026 Campaign, White House

The Strategist

October 21, 2026 · 5:11 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Just published: The Strategist: How to Think About War and Politics by Eliot A. Cohen.

The definitive guide to the use of military means to achieve political ends.

New · Out October 20, 2026The Strategist
How to Think About War and Politics
by Eliot A. Cohen · Princeton University Press
Buy on Amazon
Hardcover·Kindle

Political Books

Democrats Prepare for Trump to Claim Foreign Meddling

October 21, 2026 · 5:07 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The top Democrats on the House and Senate intelligence committees say they are operating under the presumption that President Trump and his allies will allege fraud related to this year’s midterms in order to justify election interference,” NPR reports.

Said Rep. Jim Himes (D-CT): “We start with the premise that the president is going to do that. It would be irresponsible not to, speaking as somebody who was in the chamber on January 6, 2021. We’re making the assumption that the president is not going to accept the results of what looks to be a very challenging election for him and his party.”

2026 Campaign, Election Administration

Senate Republicans Fear Mississippi Is in Play

October 21, 2026 · 4:42 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Senate Republicans are weighing three last-ditch spending moves that would have been unimaginable six months ago: a cash infusion for Mississippi and even more money for South Carolina and Kansas,” Axios reports.

“It’s been 94 years since Kansas elected a Democratic senator, 44 years for Mississippi and 28 for South Carolina. But panic is spreading through the Republican Party.”

Said one national Republican operative: “The wall has broken. The enemy is inside the fort. We are now fighting hand to hand.”

2026 Campaign, Senate

Mike Rounds Appears Safe in South Dakota Senate Race

October 21, 2026 · 4:39 pm ET · Leave a Comment

A new Quantus Insights poll in South Dakota finds Mike Rounds (R) leading Brian Bengs (I) in the U.S. Senate race, 57% to 36%.

South Dakota Senate Race
Mike Rounds (R) 57%
 
Brian Bengs (I) 36%
 
Quantus Insights poll · likely voters · ±4.1%

2026 Campaign

Another Bonus Quote of the Day

October 21, 2026 · 4:21 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“A lot of times, political ads that are negative, they work. But to work, they have to have credibility behind them. This ad is so outrageously offensive it is backfiring on Vivek because you’re making Amy Acton the victim, and Vivek is looking like the villain because Amy Acton is a victim here.”

— Republican strategist Jeanette Hoffman, quoted by NewsNation, on Vivek Ramaswamy’s “horrific” ad using Amy Acton’s estranged mother to attack her.

For members: Ramaswamy’s Self-Inflicted October Surprise

2026 Campaign, Political Advertising

MAGA Inc. Airs Another Ad Created with Taxpayer Dollars

October 21, 2026 · 4:19 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The Democratic National Committee flagged to a federal judge this week that a super PAC linked to President Donald Trump paid to air a second ad produced by White House staff using taxpayer dollars — the latest development in the organization’s legal quest to stop the ads from airing,” the Washington Sun reports.

Campaign Finance, White House

Peggy Flanagan Proves Phi Beta Kappa Membership

October 21, 2026 · 4:00 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Minnesota U.S. Senate nominee Peggy Flanagan (D) “provided evidence Wednesday of her membership in an academic honor society, undermining a national publication’s report that she inflated her credentials,” Minnesota Public Radio reports.

“The jarring turn followed a story in the Wall Street Journal earlier in the day that said Flanagan did not qualify to be a member of Phi Beta Kappa when she graduated from college. The society contacted Flanagan’s campaign to provide proof of her membership since 2002, the year she graduated from the University of Minnesota.”

2026 Campaign

Another Bonus Quote of the Day

October 21, 2026 · 3:32 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“There is no person who hates the idea of people enriching themselves fraudulently over access to the government than Donald J Trump.”

— Vice President Vance, speaking to reporters.

Corruption

Trump PAC Pours Money Into Once-Safe House Seats

October 21, 2026 · 3:30 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“President Donald Trump has made good on his claim of putting more than $300 million of his political war chest into the 2026 midterm election,” CNBC reports.

“New campaign finance filings released Tuesday night show millions flowing into House districts that were barely competitive two years ago, underscoring how far the GOP’s problems have spread in the final weeks of the campaign.”

2026 Campaign, Campaign Finance

FCC Chair Warns Networks Over Airing ‘Fake Polls’

October 21, 2026 · 3:23 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The chairman of the Federal Communications Commission said on Wednesday that U.S. broadcast networks could violate their regulatory obligations by airing ‘entirely fake polls and suppression polls,'” Reuters reports.

FCC ​Chair Brendan Carr said that ahead of the midterm elections “there had been ‌a significant surge in such polls ‘designed to do nothing more than interfere with the regular functioning of the electoral process and alter the normal patterns of voter turnout and enthusiasm.'”

2026 Campaign, Media Buzz, Polling

House Democrats Get a $25 Million Credit Line

October 21, 2026 · 3:16 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“House Democrats’ campaign arm signed off on a $25 million line of credit — among the largest it’s ever opened — early last week as the party stretches itself to take advantage of an increasingly favorable electoral environment,” the Washington Sun reports.

2026 Campaign, Campaign Finance

How Russia Won

October 21, 2026 · 3:00 pm ET · Leave a Comment

How Russia Won: Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and the Fight for America by David Corn.

“The little-understood yet crucial story of how Vladimir Putin has waged a secret campaign to subvert and weaken the United States—and how Trump, his MAGA movement, the Republican Party, and right-wing media have served as useful idiots.”

How Russia Won
Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and the Fight for America
by David Corn · Harper · 2026
Buy on Amazon
Hardcover·Kindle

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