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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192

November Surprises

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 192: November Surprises

MAGA Inc. Airs Another Ad Created with Taxpayer Dollars

October 21, 2026 · 4:19 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The Democratic National Committee flagged to a federal judge this week that a super PAC linked to President Donald Trump paid to air a second ad produced by White House staff using taxpayer dollars — the latest development in the organization’s legal quest to stop the ads from airing,” the Washington Sun reports.

Campaign Finance, White House

Peggy Flanagan Proves Phi Beta Kappa Membership

October 21, 2026 · 4:00 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Minnesota U.S. Senate nominee Peggy Flanagan (D) “provided evidence Wednesday of her membership in an academic honor society, undermining a national publication’s report that she inflated her credentials,” Minnesota Public Radio reports.

“The jarring turn followed a story in the Wall Street Journal earlier in the day that said Flanagan did not qualify to be a member of Phi Beta Kappa when she graduated from college. The society contacted Flanagan’s campaign to provide proof of her membership since 2002, the year she graduated from the University of Minnesota.”

2026 Campaign

Another Bonus Quote of the Day

October 21, 2026 · 3:32 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“There is no person who hates the idea of people enriching themselves fraudulently over access to the government than Donald J Trump.”

— Vice President Vance, speaking to reporters.

Corruption

Trump PAC Pours Money Into Once-Safe House Seats

October 21, 2026 · 3:30 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“President Donald Trump has made good on his claim of putting more than $300 million of his political war chest into the 2026 midterm election,” CNBC reports.

“New campaign finance filings released Tuesday night show millions flowing into House districts that were barely competitive two years ago, underscoring how far the GOP’s problems have spread in the final weeks of the campaign.”

2026 Campaign, Campaign Finance

FCC Chair Warns Networks Over Airing ‘Fake Polls’

October 21, 2026 · 3:23 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The chairman of the Federal Communications Commission said on Wednesday that U.S. broadcast networks could violate their regulatory obligations by airing ‘entirely fake polls and suppression polls,'” Reuters reports.

FCC ​Chair Brendan Carr said that ahead of the midterm elections “there had been ‌a significant surge in such polls ‘designed to do nothing more than interfere with the regular functioning of the electoral process and alter the normal patterns of voter turnout and enthusiasm.'”

2026 Campaign, Media Buzz, Polling

House Democrats Get a $25 Million Credit Line

October 21, 2026 · 3:16 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“House Democrats’ campaign arm signed off on a $25 million line of credit — among the largest it’s ever opened — early last week as the party stretches itself to take advantage of an increasingly favorable electoral environment,” the Washington Sun reports.

2026 Campaign, Campaign Finance

How Russia Won

October 21, 2026 · 3:00 pm ET · Leave a Comment

How Russia Won: Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and the Fight for America by David Corn.

“The little-understood yet crucial story of how Vladimir Putin has waged a secret campaign to subvert and weaken the United States—and how Trump, his MAGA movement, the Republican Party, and right-wing media have served as useful idiots.”

How Russia Won
Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and the Fight for America
by David Corn · Harper · 2026
Buy on Amazon
Hardcover·Kindle

Political Books

In Trump’s Diplomacy, Insults Are a One-Way Street

October 21, 2026 · 2:45 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The rules of the road when it comes to President Trump’s relations with foreign leaders are clear: He may trash you. But woe unto you if you whack back,” the New York Times reports.

“No one knows that better than President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, who has been through this particular diplomatic wringer more than once. But he got a pointed reminder during a closed-door meeting in Oslo this week with Mr. Trump’s negotiators.”

“Steve Witkoff, the president’s special envoy, and Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law, reproached Mr. Zelensky on Tuesday for his sharp comments responding to Mr. Trump’s sharp comments about him, telling the Ukrainian leader that the way he had conducted himself had infuriated the president.”

Bloomberg: Zelensky’s feud with Trump endangers his plan to defend Ukraine.

Foreign Affairs, White House

JD Vance Defends Vivek Ramaswamy’s Ad

October 21, 2026 · 2:10 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Vice President JD Vance dismissed criticism over a controversial ad from Ohio GOP gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy’s campaign on Wednesday, slamming Republicans for appearing to care more about playing nice than winning elections,” Politico reports.

Said Vance: “I have to admit that I’m a little bit disgusted when I see Republicans across the country who are whining more about that advertisement than they are about what the congressional Democrats and other Democrats want to do to the United States of America.”

He added: “Politics is a tough business. And my message to my fellow elected Republicans is if you actually believe in the things you say you believe in, stop whining about an advertisement and go win the race in 13 days.”

For members: Ramaswamy’s Self-Inflicted October Surprise

2026 Campaign

Democrats Lead in Key Red State Senate Races

October 21, 2026 · 1:59 pm ET · Leave a Comment

A new The Cook Political Report/New River Strategies and GS Strategy Group poll in Iowa finds Josh Turek (D) leading Ashley Hinson (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 44%.

Iowa Senate Race
Josh Turek (D) 46%
 
Ashley Hinson (R) 44%
 
The Cook Political Report/New River Strategies and GS Strategy Group poll

The same poll in Ohio finds Sherrod Brown (D) leading Jon Husted (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 49% to 43%.

Ohio Senate Race
Sherrod Brown (D) 49%
 
Jon Husted (R) 43%
 
The Cook Political Report/New River Strategies and GS Strategy Group poll

The same poll in Texas finds James Talarico (D) leading Ken Paxton (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 49% to 44%.

Texas Senate Race
James Talarico (D) 49%
 
Ken Paxton (R) 44%
 
The Cook Political Report/New River Strategies and GS Strategy Group poll

2026 Campaign

Dems Lead for Iowa and Ohio Governor, Close in Texas

October 21, 2026 · 1:55 pm ET · Leave a Comment

A new The Cook Political Report/New River Strategies and GS Strategy Group poll in Iowa finds Rob Sand (D) leading Zach Lahn (R) in the governor’s race, 54% to 43%.

Iowa Governor’s Race
Rob Sand (D) 54%
 
Zach Lahn (R) 43%
 
The Cook Political Report/New River Strategies and GS Strategy Group poll

The same poll in Ohio finds Amy Acton (D) leading Vivek Ramaswamy (R) in the governor’s race, 49% to 44%.

Ohio Governor’s Race
Amy Acton (D) 49%
 
Vivek Ramaswamy (R) 44%
 
The Cook Political Report/New River Strategies and GS Strategy Group poll

The same poll in Texas finds Greg Abbott (R) leading Gina Hinojosa (D) in the governor’s race, 48% to 46%.

Texas Governor’s Race
Greg Abbott (R) 48%
 
Gina Hinojosa (D) 46%
 
The Cook Political Report/New River Strategies and GS Strategy Group poll

2026 Campaign

Kathy Hochul Tops 50% in New York

October 21, 2026 · 1:51 pm ET · Leave a Comment

A new Quinnipiac University poll in New York finds Kathy Hochul (D) leading Bruce Blakeman (R) in the governor’s race, 55% to 41%.

New York Governor’s Race
Kathy Hochul (D) 55%
 
Bruce Blakeman (R) 41%
 
Quinnipiac University poll · likely voters

2026 Campaign

Jeffrey Epstein Attorney, Accountant Sued by New Mexico

October 21, 2026 · 1:50 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“New Mexico’s attorney general on Wednesday filed a federal lawsuit accusing Jeffrey Epstein’s long-time personal lawyer and accountant of facilitating Epstein’s sex trafficking operation,” CNBC reports.

“The civil suit alleges that the attorney, Darren Indyke, and the accountant, Richard Kahn, helped finance and conceal Epstein’s sex trafficking, which included the abuse of girls and young women at his Zorro Ranch in Santa Fe County, New Mexico.”

Crime and Punishment

Wes Moore Switches Ads to Promote Redistricting

October 21, 2026 · 1:48 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Maryland Gov. Wes Moore (D) is converting reelection ads in the D.C. media market into messages selling voters on a redistricting amendment that’s currently unpopular,” the Washington Post reports.

2026 Campaign, Redistricting

Deep-Red Republicans Are Suddenly Going Negative

October 21, 2026 · 1:30 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Punchbowl News: “With less than two weeks to go until the midterms, we’re seeing some GOP lawmakers in deep red territory make aggressive campaign moves.”

“Plenty of House Republicans are going negative on their Democratic opponents. It’s an interesting play, since many of those Democrats aren’t running ads of their own and have low name ID. That so many Republicans are doing it suggests they’re worried the ‘R’ next to their name could cost them with angry voters.”

2026 Campaign, House of Representatives

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