Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 193
The Magnificent Seven
A new VoteHub/Verasight poll in Texas finds Greg Abbott (R) leading Gina Hinojosa (D) in the governor’s race, 48% to 46%.
The same poll in Texas finds James Talarico (D) leading Ken Paxton (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 45%.
Mediaite: “President Donald Trump called on Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) to resign from Congress on Thursday night, claiming she used a ‘fake name’ when getting elected.”
Ed Kilgore: “The term carpetbagger was originally applied to Northerners who moved South after the Civil War to launch political careers under the protection of military Reconstruction; it referred to the hastily procured bags manufactured from carpet scraps the transplants allegedly used. More recently, the term has been applied to politicians who conveniently relocate themselves into the vicinity of political opportunities…”
“So in itself, the decision by conservative ex-lobbyist and businessman Zach Lahn to move from Kansas to Iowa in 2024 and then run for governor — winning the 2026 GOP primary in a big upset — isn’t so remarkable. Indeed, Lahn was born and grew up in Iowa, where his family had lived for generations, and owned property there.”
“What has made his case interesting — and for supporters of his Democratic opponent, Rob Sand, hilarious — is his difficulty making a clean break with it. He seems very involved in Kansas matters.”
“Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth used a slur to proudly announce to an auditorium of Marines in September that he was ridding the military of all transgender troops,” the New York Times reports.
“But just steps from the auditorium where Mr. Hegseth spoke, at Marine Corps Base Quantico, boards assigned to carry out those orders were doing the opposite. Instead of firing trans Marines, the boards were voting to keep them.”
“The same was happening in the Navy: Boards given strict rules instructing them to force out sailors were rebelling and voting to let them stay.”
“The races for some of Georgia’s top elected offices are a dead heat, setting up a last-minute scramble that will have big implications for how state government operates come January,” the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
“A new Atlanta Journal-Constitution survey of likely Georgia voters shows the races for lieutenant governor, attorney general and secretary of state are deadlocked just a week and a half before the Nov. 3 election.”
“President Trump’s election advisers Chris LaCivita and James Blair have donated their six-figure consulting fees from a controversial side-hustle in Bosnia and Herzegovina to Trump’s presidential library,” the New York Post reports.
“Trump was ‘gloating’ and ‘very braggadocious’ in private conversations this week upon learning the development, a source said — indicating that his initial hard feelings toward LaCivita and Blair over their Eastern European gig had eased.”
“President Donald Trump told reporters that he had ‘heard something about’ the Department of Justice investigating allegations that Corey Lewandowski profited off his past role as an adviser at the Department of Homeland Security, after media reports of an investigation surfaced Thursday,” the Associated Press reports.
“The president notably didn’t defend Lewandowski, who was his first campaign manager in 2016.”
Said Trump: “I don’t know exactly what it is. All I know is, I want my people to be honest. And if they’re not going to be honest, they have to be prosecuted. I’ll have my DOJ go and do whatever they have to do.”
“Iowa Republican Senate candidate Rep. Ashley Hinson on Thursday strongly condemned Republican Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy for his controversial campaign ad featuring the estranged mother of Democratic opponent Amy Acton,” ABC News reports.
“Hours before he was to appear at a rally with Hinson on Thursday, President Donald Trump defended the ad.”
“The Starlink system used by Ukraine’s military was suffering from low speeds limits early on Friday, despite President Trump saying that SpaceX Chief Executive Elon Musk had restored the service,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Ukrainian drone units and government officials said connections with Starshield, a military-grade service using Starlink’s infrastructure, continued to fail in most of the country when drones flew faster than 161 kilometers an hour, equivalent to around 100 miles an hour.”
Bloomberg: Trump called Musk to lift Ukraine Starlink limits.
“A small group of Rep. Brandon Gill’s fellow House Freedom Caucus members are privately questioning whether he still belongs in the hardline group, Axios has learned,” Axios reports.
“The 32-year-old Texas freshman’s rapid rise through House Republican ranks has transformed him into one of the party’s most prominent young stars — and earned him a growing list of critics.
Said one House Freedom Caucus member: “He’s not really in the Freedom Caucus. He’s just using it for conservative bonafides.”
“President Donald Trump is asking voters to ‘pretend’ he is on the ballot. That might backfire,” Politico reports.
“New results from The Politico Poll show that Democratic midterm voters are more motivated to oppose the president than Republican voters are to support him. Many Republican voters also aren’t looking for blind loyalty to Trump in the midterms: Half say they’d rather their local candidate aim to win, even if it means speaking out against the president.”
Cook Political Report: “Republicans’ path to keeping control of the House has all but evaporated. The outstanding question is how large Democrats’ majority will be in 2027; in the best-case scenario, their party could enter the new Congress with more seats than they had after successfully flipping control of the House in 2006 and 2018.”
“As a result of new polling and ad spending, we’re moving another 19 races in Democrats’ direction. Six districts — four of which are held by Republican incumbents — are moving from the Toss Up column to Lean Democrat. Two more open seats are moving from Lean Republican to Toss Up.”
“Following this latest round of ratings changes, Democrats now are favored outright in the 218 seats they need to win control of the House. In other words, 220 seats are rated either Solid, Likely or Lean Democrat. Republicans, meanwhile, are favored in 198 seats, rated Solid, Likely, or Lean Republican. That leaves 17 races rated as pure Toss Ups.”
“Now, we view the likeliest outcome as Democrats flipping between 12 and 22 seats. Democrats currently hold 215.”
“Rep. Jack Bergman (R-MI) rented a stately home in Washington, D.C., owned for years by one of his top campaign donors who sold the house to the Michigan congressman’s daughter in a favorable seller-financed deal this year,” the Detroit News reports.
“He’s going to become your senator. And it’s crazy.”
— President Trump, quoted by NBC News, conceding that Roy Cooper (D) will win the North Carolina U.S. Senate race.
“Over the past year, President Trump and his allies have offered a series of explanations for why the nation needs a 250-foot-tall triumphal arch: It will mark 250 years of American independence. It will befit Washington’s place among Western capitals. It will honor the nation’s veterans. It will serve the military, the president added last month, as a platform for snipers,” the New York Times reports.
“But as the mega project planned for Memorial Circle heads to a final vote by the National Capital Planning Commission Nov. 5, the Trump administration has circled around one argument crucial to the project’s legal defense: The arch will at long last bring to life, officials say, a proposal that has languished on hallowed land for a century.”