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Democrats Lay Groundwork to Probe Trump’s Diesel Deal

October 26, 2026 · 9:17 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Top Democrats poised for powerful roles next year are demanding that major banks and ports preserve any records they have tied to potential imports or other deals involving Russian diesel,” Axios reports.

“Probing President Trump’s agreement with Moscow will be a priority if Democrats regain control of either or both chambers of Congress.”

Foreign Affairs, White House

Extra Bonus Quote of the Day

October 26, 2026 · 8:47 am ET · Leave a Comment

“They will use lies, and they will use fear, and they will use division, and their name, or your faith, to somehow suggest that you are dangerous and less than trustworthy and less patriotic and less American than they are. We have seen this movie before. I starred in it.”

— Former President Barack Obama, quoted by Michigan Advance.

Culture Wars, Religion

Trump Makes Himself the Closing Argument

October 26, 2026 · 8:30 am ET · Leave a Comment

Talking PointsDonald Trump is making himself the center of attention in the final days of the midterm campaign.

But he doesn’t seem to be helping Republicans.

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Headline of the Day

October 26, 2026 · 8:22 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Lula is re-elected Brazil’s president in knife-edge vote.”

— Financial Times, October 26, 2026.

Paul Krugman notes Lula won by 3 percentage points, twice Donald Trump’s margin in 2024.
Taegan

Foreign Elections

J.D. Vance May Already Be On the Ballot

October 26, 2026 · 8:18 am ET · Leave a Comment

Ed Kilgore: “President Donald Trump has famously and repeatedly asked his followers to ‘pretend I’m on the ballot’ this year in an effort to boost base turnout, especially in the red states where Republicans are struggling to mitigate midterm losses. He knows, of course, that his name will never actually be on a ballot again. But some other Republican’s name will head up the GOP ticket in 2028, and that election cycle will begin on November 4 no matter what happens on November 3. Up until now, the betting favorite for the GOP nomination has been Trump’s protege, Vice President J.D. Vance.”

“But the brouhaha in Vance’s home state of Ohio over Vivek Ramaswamy’s nasty ad using Amy Acton’s disreputable mom to smear her makes you wonder: Is J.D. Vance on the ballot this year — and could failure keep him off the ballot two years from now?”

2026 Campaign, 2028 Campaign

The Parents Opting Out of Trump’s Free $1,000

October 26, 2026 · 8:03 am ET · Leave a Comment

The Atlantic: “It is rare for people to turn down free money from the government. But that’s what happens when a polarizing president attaches his name to a taxpayer-supported program originally pitched as a vehicle to help America’s children achieve financial security.”

“An investment idea once championed by Democrats as a pathway to stability for millions of minors is now at risk of becoming yet another casualty of the country’s partisan divide. Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle say the program has promise. But its greatest obstacle to achieving widespread acceptance may be its name.”

Budget & Taxes, White House

How Republicans Made Safe Seats Competitive

October 26, 2026 · 7:39 am ET · Leave a Comment

Talking PointsRepublicans thought they had found a way to protect their House majority from the usual midterm backlash: redraw congressional maps to give themselves a built-in advantage.

At President Trump’s urging, Republican-controlled states began aggressively redrawing district lines last year, hoping to create enough new GOP seats to offset potential losses elsewhere.

Read the rest of this column

Talking Points is my analysis of the political landscape, written only for Political Wire members.

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Bonus Quote of the Day

October 26, 2026 · 7:00 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Brian Fitzpatrick is Brian Fitzpatrick. I’m not Donald Trump. I’m not anybody else. And that’s the way voters should approach this. I’m not happy with Trump. I’m not happy with his tone. I don’t think he’s done a sufficient job. I think leaders are supposed to unite our country, unify people. He has not done that.”

— Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA), quoted by CNBC, trying to distance himself from President Trump.

Fitzpatrick has still voted with Trump and his party nearly 70% and 77% of the time, respectively.
Taegan

2026 Campaign, House of Representatives

Kamala Harris Assesses Her Next Move

October 26, 2026 · 6:56 am ET · Leave a Comment

MS NOW: “According to conversations with people who’ve known or worked for Harris, several admitted that they are genuinely unsure whether she will ultimately launch another presidential bid in 2028. One person close to Harris said she’s taking the pulse of the electorate, as she travels the country, to determine whether she fits the vision that voters want.”

“Harris is widely known for being cautious about decision-making, the people said, gathering as much information as possible before making a judgement call. A former 2024 campaign staffer described Harris’ moves since leaving the White House as ‘confusing,’ offering little insight into whether she’ll make another play for the Oval Office or not.”

2028 Campaign

Trump-Tied Companies Prepare for Republican Losses

October 26, 2026 · 6:54 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Companies with ties to President Donald Trump and his family are staffing up with lawyers and lobbyists, as Democrats threaten sweeping probes if they flip either chamber of Congress in the midterm elections,” Bloomberg reports.

“With polls and prediction markets favoring a change in power, firms with connections to the Trumps — from cryptocurrency businesses, to venture capital and prediction markets — are already preparing for the possibility of congressional inquiries.”

2026 Campaign

Flávio Bolsonaro Refuses to Concede to Lula

October 26, 2026 · 6:19 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Brazilian voters on Sunday handed the leftist president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a fourth term in office and a surprise victory over Flávio Bolsonaro, his right-wing challenger, in a striking rebuke to a conservative surge sweeping Latin America,” the New York Times reports.

“Mr. Bolsonaro refused to accept the outcome and said it was the result of foul play, increasing the risk of unrest over the election result.”

“The rejection by voters of Mr. Bolsonaro, the son of a former president jailed for attempting a coup four years ago, is also a loss for President Trump, who had embraced the Bolsonaro family and the region’s rising right.”

Bloomberg: Bolsonaro calls for annulment of election after loss to Lula.

Foreign Elections

The Epstein Election

October 26, 2026 · 6:12 am ET · Leave a Comment

Politico: “Tens of millions of dollars in Democratic ads are targeting the scandal — a move that could prove decisive in tipping the Senate for Democrats.”

“The Chuck Schumer-aligned Senate Majority PAC has spent more than $20 million on Jeffrey Epstein-related ads in Senate races across Alaska, Maine, Iowa, Ohio, Kansas and Georgia, according to a spokesperson for the group. Between House and Senate races, Democrats have spent some $36 million on Epstein-related ads, according to an AdImpact analysis.”

“That’s because the Epstein imbroglio has filtered so deeply into the American voter psyche that it’s an easy shorthand for Democrats to talk about corruption — now a top issue on voters’ minds with 88% extremely or very concerned, according to a recent Fox News poll. That’s more than inflation and high prices, which clocked in at 85%.”

2026 Campaign, Political Advertising

Bernie Sanders Could Soon Get a Senate Bully Pulpit

October 26, 2026 · 6:02 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Bernie Sanders is already the most prominent voice on the American left. Now he’s on the brink of getting a powerful perch to do something about it,” Politico reports.

“Sanders is poised to lead Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions if Democrats flip the chamber next week — a chance to push the party further left and shape the next presidential contest in which he’s signaled he’s unlikely to be a candidate.”

2026 Campaign, Senate

Josh Turek Is Running a Radically Centrist Campaign

October 26, 2026 · 6:01 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Democratic Senate candidate Josh Turek is running ads calling for border security. He’s touting his votes with Republicans in the statehouse,” Semafor reports.

“Turek is criticizing his party for obstructing farm and data center legislation and says he has ‘no interest’ in talking about impeachment. He even embraces a term that Democrats rarely use these days.”

Said Turek: “Politically, the term moderate can be pejorative. And I say that I’m proudly a moderate. Socially, culturally, you could define me as moderate.”

2026 Campaign

Democrats See Trump ‘Rescue Mission’ in Mississippi

October 26, 2026 · 6:00 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Some Democrats are trying to temper soaring expectations in the battle for the Senate — but they also can’t help but savor President Donald Trump’s campaign stop in deep-red Mississippi on Monday,” Semafor reports.

2026 Campaign

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