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Democrats Already Playing Blame Game In California

May 31, 2018 at 8:59 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Washington Post: “Confused and frustrated, a growing number of Democrats are blaming their own party as they seek to avert a drubbing in Tuesday’s congressional primaries here that would leave their candidates shut out of the November ballot in some races — and with a narrower path to win control of the House of Representatives.”

“Candidates are scrambling to set themselves apart, Democratic groups are urging unity to gain control of the House — and many voters are wondering how to contend with the despair they would feel if Democrats were locked out in this liberal state.”

Filed Under: 2018 Campaign Tagged With: California

Independents Now Outnumber Republicans In California

May 30, 2018 at 7:12 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Independents have surpassed Republicans to become the second-largest voting bloc in California, according to a firm that analyzes county voter registration information for campaigns,” the Sacramento Bee reports.

“Political Data Inc. on Tuesday released its latest count showing that voters registered with no party preference now outnumber Republicans by about 73,000 in California. The company regularly collects raw voter files from county registrars to maintain an updated database of the state’s 19 million voters.”

Playbook: “California Republicans have been sliding into obscurity for some time. But this seems particularly ominous in the long term for House Republicans, who have 14 seats in California.”

Filed Under: Republicans Tagged With: California

Both Parties Gaming California’s Top Two Primaries

May 29, 2018 at 12:08 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

First Read: “On the GOP side, President Trump has endorsed Republican John Cox for governor, trying to unite California Republicans around a single candidate, which could help drive turnout in the House and downballot races… In addition, House Republicans have opened an office in Southern California to spur GOP turnout in the three key House districts.”

“On the Democratic side, the DCCC has been airing TV ads both in favor of their preferred candidates in these crowded primaries (see here and here) and against Republican candidates (see here and here). And while House Democrats want two Democrats at the top of the ticket for governor – to drive Dem turnout and depress the GOP’s – gubernatorial frontrunner Gavin Newsom prefers a Republican opponent, since someone like fellow Democrat Antonio Villaraigosa represents a greater general-election threat than either of the two leading GOP candidates (Cox and Travis Allen).”

“What’s fascinating about all of these races is that they’re essentially margin-of-error contests to make the Top 2, where candidates in positions No. 2, No. 3 and even No. 4 are separated by just a handful of points in the public and private polling. All of which makes the June 5 primaries – and the strategies going into them – quite a game.”

Vox: California’s “top two” primary chaos, explained.

Filed Under: 2018 Campaign Tagged With: California


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How California Could Bust Up the Two Party System

May 13, 2018 at 11:15 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: ‘At the start of this year, barely a quarter of registered voters in California said they were Republicans, down from more than a third in 1997. At the same time, the number of voters in the state who say they have no party preference has more than doubled, to about 25 percent. This strongly suggests that most people who have left the Republican Party have not become Democrats and would be open to a center-right political party.”

“If a new California-based party can win votes and legislative seats, it could send a signal to politicians around the country that moderation can be a bankable political strategy, helping to break the vise grip of tribal politics that has turned so much of national politics into a blood sport and made it impossible for Congress to pass substantive bipartisan legislation.”

“If a third party has a chance anywhere in the United States, it’s in California. The state allows the two candidates who get the most votes in a so-called open primary, regardless of party affiliation, to advance to the general election.”

Filed Under: Third Parties Tagged With: California

Democrats Consider Attacking Their Own In California

March 19, 2018 at 1:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sacramento Bee: “Facing the risk that the party could get shut out of the general election race for one or more competitive Republican-held seats, liberal groups formed to attack Republicans now say they are at least considering spending money to support particular Democratic candidates in the primaries. National Democratic officials say all options are on the table in the lead-up to June — including launching negative attacks on members of their own party, a tactic that stirred controversy in the Texas primary.”

Filed Under: 2018 Campaign, Democrats Tagged With: California

California Moves Presidential Primary to March 2020

September 27, 2017 at 5:32 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Backing an effort for California to claim a bigger share of the attention from presidential candidates, Gov. Jerry Brown has signed a bill moving the state’s primary elections to early March,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

“Brown’s decision, announced without fanfare on Wednesday, means the state will hold its presidential primary on March 3, 2020. It’s a reversal from a decision he and Democratic lawmakers made in 2011 to push the state’s primary elections back until June, after years of trying — and failing — to entice major candidates to bring their campaigns to California instead of smaller, more rural states.”

Filed Under: 2020 Campaign Tagged With: California

Calexit Backers Can Begin Collecting Signatures

January 27, 2017 at 5:14 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Backers of a proposed constitutional amendment seeking California’s secession from the U.S. can begin collecting voter signatures to qualify for the 2018 ballot,” according to the Sacramento Bee.

“The so-called Calexit movement emerged within days of the upset presidential victory of Republican Donald Trump, who lost California by nearly 4.3 million votes. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that nearly one in three Californians support the state leaving the U.S.”

Filed Under: State House Tagged With: California

Trump Is Cratering In California

October 27, 2016 at 6:55 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new PPIC poll in California shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by a stunning 26 points,  54% to 28%.

The San Jose Mercury News reports Trump “is careening toward a historically poor showing in California, a prospect that has left several GOP congressmen fearful for their seats and Democrats hopeful they can regain a supermajority in the Legislature.”

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: California

Clinton Headed for Landslide In California

July 7, 2016 at 7:41 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Field poll in California shows Hillary Clinton has expanded her already large lead over Donald Trump in California to 30 points, 58% to 28%.

“The poll, unsurprising in this heavily Democratic state, comes as Trump continues to assert that he can compete with Clinton in the general election in California.”

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: California

California May Show the GOP’s Future

June 8, 2016 at 11:12 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 42 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

California, the home of both Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon, couldn’t have changed more in the last 20 years.

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Filed Under: 2016 Campaign, Members, Race Tagged With: California, Donald Trump

Clinton Just Ahead in California

June 5, 2016 at 10:55 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 90 Comments

A new CBS News poll in California shows Hillary Clinton up two points on Bernie Sanders, 49% to 47%.

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: California

California Primary Remains Very Tight

June 3, 2016 at 7:20 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 125 Comments

A USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll in California shows Bernie Sanders just ahead of Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary, 44% to 43%.

However, among just likely voters, Clinton leads 49% to 39%.

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: California

Trump Thinks He Can Win California

June 2, 2016 at 2:10 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 84 Comments

Donald Trump “is the only candidate left in the Republican primary, yet his campaign schedule is adhering fairly closely to the primary calendar, with him spending the second part of last week and the rest of this week holding rallies across California, which votes on Tuesday,” the New York Times reports.

Said Trump: “Sacramento, we’re going to do something. Because I’m going to make a real run in California, all right? We’re going to work California hard.”

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: California

Another Poll Shows California Close

June 2, 2016 at 8:16 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 57 Comments

A new Field Poll in California shows Hillary Clinton edging Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary, 45% to 43%, with 12% undecided.

In the last survey in April, Clinton led Sanders by 6 points — 47% to 41%.

Alan Abramowitz: Model points to close California result between Clinton and Sanders

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: California

Clinton Barely Ahead In California

June 1, 2016 at 8:49 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 100 Comments

A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll in California finds Hillary Clinton just two points ahead of Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary, 49% to 47%.

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: California

Why Clinton Needs to Win California

May 31, 2016 at 8:50 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 127 Comments

First Read: “Yes, Hillary Clinton is just 72 delegates away from crossing the 2,383 magic number needed for a majority of delegates to win the Democratic convention. Yes, she’s likely to hit that milestone before polls even close in California (due to the New Jersey primary and its 126 pledged delegates). And, yes, even if she loses in California by 10 points, her lead over Bernie Sanders in pledged delegates would still be twice the size of Obama’s lead over Clinton in 2008.”

“But here’s the reason why Clinton needs to beat Sanders in California next week: She doesn’t want to give him any legitimate rationale to remain in the race beyond June 7 or June 14 (the final primary in DC). Why? Because… the moment Sanders exits the race, her poll numbers against Trump will increase… Maybe that’s why Clinton has canceled an event in New Jersey this week to spend more time in California.”

A new Hoover Institution poll shows Clinton leading Sanders by 13 points, 51% to 38%.

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: California, Hillary Clinton

Clinton Adds More Events In California

May 30, 2016 at 7:38 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 141 Comments

“Hillary Clinton has upended her campaign schedule, adding more stops in California, in an effort to prevent an embarrassing loss there to Bernie Sanders, her rival for the Democratic presidential nomination,” the Washington Post reports.

“Clinton originally planned to campaign for two days this week in New Jersey, but at the last minute canceled an event on Thursday and will instead return to California for a five-day swing. The schedule change comes as Sanders has barnstormed California, not leaving the state in more than a week. Meanwhile, a recent poll found the race closing significantly. Clinton’s lead over Sanders had narrowed to just two points.”

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: California

Clinton Way Ahead of Sanders In California

May 23, 2016 at 5:07 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 141 Comments

A new SurveyUSA poll in California finds Hillary Clinton way ahead of Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary, 57% to 39%.

The results of the poll showed that Sanders continues to lead among the youngest voters, while Clinton leads by 12 points among voters age 35 to 49.

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: California

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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