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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 194

What Just Happened?

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 194: What Just Happened?

Hyde-Smith Wins Mississippi Run Off

November 27, 2018 · 7:45 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS) is projected to defeat challenger Mike Espy (D) in Mississippi’s U.S. Senate run off.

Use the comments to track the results as they come in.

2018 Campaign MS-Sen

Espy Would Need Unprecedented Swing to Win

November 27, 2018 · 4:30 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Geoffrey Skelley: “We don’t often see a runoff in a general election, but if Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith were to lose Mississippi’s Senate runoff on Tuesday, after the two Republican candidates combined to win a sizable majority of the initial vote, that would be even more unusual.”

“In the first round, Republicans Hyde-Smith and Chris McDaniel combined for a bit less than 58 percent of the vote, while Democrat Mike Espy and one other candidate from his party together won a little more than 42 percent. For Espy to win, the runoff vote has to swing more than 15 points more Democratic than the initial vote margin.”

“But if we look at the five Senate elections since 1990 where an initial round of voting was held on the national Election Day and two candidates advanced to a runoff, no challenger has ever come close to outperforming the previous round of voting by the kind of margin Espy would need to win.”

2018 Campaign MS-Sen

Despite Concession, McMurray Promises to Stay Active

November 27, 2018 · 10:45 am ET · Leave a Comment

Nate McMurray (D) conceded his race against Rep. Chris Collins (R-NY) but promised he wasn’t going away, suggesting that his opponent’s indictment might create an opening, the Buffalo News reports.

Said McMurray: “So we’re going to do things like hold town halls. And whether Mr. Collins wants to do that, or not, we don’t care. He can show up to our town halls, if he wants. Beyond that, Mr. Collins’ future in Washington remains murky. He says that he will finish his term but, as we know, he’s not the best at keeping promises.”

He added: “When the time is right, I will run for office again.”

2018 Campaign NY-27

Obama Robocalls Mississippi

November 27, 2018 · 10:12 am ET · Leave a Comment

President Obama recorded a robocall that ran in Mississippi last night, though he did not mention U.S. Senate candidate Mike Espy (D) by name.

Said Obama: “My name may not be on the ballot, but our future is, and that’s why I believe this is one of the most important elections in our lifetime. Make a plan to vote tomorrow. I’m counting on you to be in line to vote before polls close.”

2018 Campaign MS-Sen

Cox Grabs Lead In Last Undecided House Race

November 26, 2018 · 8:28 pm ET · Leave a Comment

TJ Cox (D) slipped past incumbent Rep. David Valadao (R-CA) to take the lead in the country’s sole remaining undecided congressional race, positioning Democrats to pick up their seventh House seat in California and 40th nationwide, the Los Angeles Times reports.

2018 Campaign CA-21

Nooses Found at Mississippi State Capitol

November 26, 2018 · 1:48 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Two nooses were found hanging at the Mississippi State Capitol Monday morning around 7:15 a.m., WLBT reports.

NBC News: “Hate signs also were found, although it unclear what they said or if the signs referenced the racially charged runoff Senate election taking place Tuesday between Democrat Mike Espy, who is black, and Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith.”

2018 Campaign MS-Sen

Love Says Trump’s Comments Were ‘Hurtful’

November 26, 2018 · 12:59 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Rep. Mia Love (R-UT) said that President Trump’s mocking of her election loss was “hurtful,” adding that he has “no real relationships, just transactions,” CNN reports.

Said Love: “The President’s behavior towards me made me wonder: What did he have to gain by saying such a thing about a fellow Republican. It was not really about asking him to do more, was it? Or was it something else? Well Mr. President, we’ll have to chat about that.”

2018 Campaign Mia Love, UT-4

Trump Tries to Rescue Mississippi’s Senate Seat

November 26, 2018 · 10:11 am ET · Leave a Comment

James Hohmann: “If tomorrow’s special election in Mississippi is a referendum on President Trump, Republicans will win. That’s why he will hold not one but two rallies tonight for appointed GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith.”

“Elections have become more nationalized and more polarized in the Trump era. Both trends work to the GOP’s advantage in this final federal election of 2018. Trump carried Mississippi by 18 points in 2016. For context, he won both Indiana and Missouri by 19 points. These are two of the four states where Republican challengers knocked off Democratic incumbents in the midterms.”

“There has been frustratingly little reliable public polling in this contest. Both sides agree that Hyde-Smith is ahead but that her lead has narrowed in recent weeks.”

2018 Campaign MS-Sen

Ex-Lawmaker Says Lack of Oversight Cost Republicans

November 26, 2018 · 9:14 am ET · Leave a Comment

Former Rep. David Dreier (R-CA) told NBC Los Angeles that Republicans lost the House because of the party’s lack of aggressively checking the White House.

Said Dreier: “Oversight, which is a Constitutionally directed responsibility, is so critically important. And my Republican colleagues did not, I believe, do an adequate enough job.”

He added: “Ours is a nation of institutions. We need to remember that, and Congress needs to exercise that authority.”

2018 Campaign, House of Representatives

Member feature

Trump Didn’t Learn from His Midterm Defeat

November 26, 2018 · 9:01 am ET · Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Although President Trump and Republicans got trounced in the midterm elections, it’s important for Democrats to remember that suffering midterm losses doesn’t necessarily hurt Trump’s re-election chances in 2020. After all, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama went on to easily win second terms after humbling midterm defeats.

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2018 Campaign, Immigration, Members

Democrats Won Nearly 60 Million Votes In the Midterms

November 26, 2018 · 8:54 am ET · Leave a Comment

First Read: “According to the Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman, the Dem popular vote advantage is now a full 8 points, 53.1% to 45.1%.”

“Indeed, Dems are getting close to 60 million votes. In 2008, John McCain got 60 million votes; Mitt Romney got 61 million in 2012; and Trump got 63 million in 2016. It’s stunning that Dems got as many House votes as the GOP presidential nominees in 2008/2012/2016.”

2018 Campaign

Political Gravity Caught Up with Trump In 2018

November 26, 2018 · 8:43 am ET · Leave a Comment

First Read: “A few hours into Election Night 2018, it felt like it was happening again — Donald Trump and the GOP were about to defy political gravity… But by 11:00 pm ET that night — and especially in three weeks since the midterm elections, as races have been called and more votes have come in — it was clear that political gravity caught up to Trump. And that might have been one of the more consequential outcomes of the 2018 midterms:

  • that being a president with a 45 percent job rating (or lower) will hurt your party, like it did to Bill Clinton in 1994, George W. Bush in 2006 and Barack Obama in 2010;
  • that focusing only on your base can’t save your party from losing up to 40 House seats and control of Congress, even when the unemployment rate stands at 3.7 percent;
  • and that the most favorable Senate map in generations couldn’t net the GOP more than two net pickups.

“To be sure, Trump and Republicans turned out their voters, ensuring that the GOP didn’t lose more House seats and control of the U.S. Senate… But that the laws of political gravity applied to Trump in 2018 – and we also saw this play out in Virginia’s gubernatorial race in 2017, in Alabama’s Senate contest in December 2017 and the special PA-18 race in 2018 – provide an important lesson for 2020: Political fundamentals still matter.”

2018 Campaign

Hyde-Smith Has GOP Holding Their Breath

November 25, 2018 · 8:39 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Republicans think Cindy Hyde-Smith will ultimately pull out a win in Mississippi’s special Senate election on Tuesday. But they say the race has tightened — and after what happened in Alabama last year, they’re on edge,” Politico reports.

“A swirl of controversy surrounding the Republican senator — stirred up by her comment about attending a “public hanging” — has given Democrat Mike Espy momentum in the home stretch, officials from both parties say. Hyde-Smith has never trailed in polling, and Democrats acknowledge she’s likely to win, but they argue that her flubs have given Espy a very narrow opening if everything breaks his way.”

2018 Campaign MS-Sen

Trump Calls Hyde-Smith an ‘Outstanding Person’

November 25, 2018 · 8:58 am ET · Leave a Comment

President Trump tweeted his support for Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS) a day before he heads to the state to rally support for the embattled senator in her runoff election.

Said Trump: “She is an outstanding person who is strong on the Border, Crime, Military, our great Vets, Healthcare & the 2nd A. Needed in D.C.”

The Hill: Hundreds planning to protest Trump’s visit to Mississippi.

2018 Campaign MS-Sen

Hyde-Smith Praised Confederate Soldier

November 24, 2018 · 9:14 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS) “once promoted a measure that praised a Confederate soldier’s effort to ‘defend his homeland’ and pushed a revisionist view of the Civil War,” CNN reports.

“Hyde-Smith, a Republican, faces Mike Espy, a Democratic former congressman and agriculture secretary, in Tuesday’s runoff in Mississippi — the final Senate race to be decided in 2018. The measure… is the latest in a series of issues that have surfaced during her campaign, many of which have evoked Mississippi’s dark history of racism and slavery.”

2018 Campaign MS-Sen

Hyde-Smith Attended Segregation Academy

November 24, 2018 · 2:36 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Cindy Hyde-Smith’s embattled bid for another two years in the Senate hit another race-related hurdle this weekend, as a report in a Mississippi newspaper revealed the Republican incumbent graduated high school at a segregation academy,” Politico reports.

“A photograph from the 1975 edition of the Lawrence County Academy yearbook, published Friday by the Jackson Free Press, appears to show Hyde-Smith among a group of cheerleaders — including a mascot holding a Confederate flag who appears to be wearing a costume imitating a Confederate general’s uniform. A sophomore girl in the picture is identified in the caption as Cindy Hyde.”

2018 Campaign MS-Sen

What’s Good for Trump Isn’t Good for the GOP

November 24, 2018 · 12:06 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Dan Balz: “When President Trump won the White House in 2016, he did it by hijacking the Republican Party. Now, after what happened in the midterm elections, it’s clearer than ever that the president’s fortunes and his party’s future are at odds.

“If the enthusiasm for Trump in rural and small-town America constituted the story after 2016, the revolt against him in the suburbs, led by female voters, has become the story of the 2018 elections. The more you analyze the House results, the more the GOP’s suburban problem stands out.”

2018 Campaign

A Younger, More Diverse Congress

November 24, 2018 · 7:49 am ET · Leave a Comment

Politico: “We looked at the newest additions to the House and Senate — 100 non-incumbent winners — and found their average age is 49. That makes this incoming class the youngest in the past three cycles. It is also the most diverse cohort to date.”

2018 Campaign

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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