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Trump Still In Denial Over Election Results

December 12, 2018 · 9:51 am ET · Leave a Comment

First Read: “To us, there’s a more fundamental takeaway to yesterday’s Thunderdome in the Oval Office: It appears Trump still hasn’t accepted his defeat from the midterms and what that means for his agenda beginning next year.”

“It was the same kind of ‘thumping’ that George W. Bush recognized back in 2006, and similar to the ‘shellacking’ Barack Obama admitted receiving in 2010. But Trump has yet to concede what really happened in the midterms and how that means divided government in 2019-2020.”

“And that divided government takes away leverage he might have in any shutdown fight. As Schumer explained to reporters after the meeting, if there’s a shutdown, House Democrats next year can pass a clean continuing resolution to fund the government — and dare Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to oppose it.”

James Hohmann: “It’s remarkably easy for people to get under Trump’s skin. Chuck and Nancy, as Trump refers to the Democratic leaders, needled him on the economy and the election. And his response illustrated why this was the first meeting between the three leaders in more than a year. Indeed, the president has rarely put himself in positions of being directly challenged over the past two years.”

2018 Campaign, White House

The Trump Coalition Is Cracking

December 11, 2018 · 4:20 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Ron Brownstein: “Cracks have emerged in Donald Trump’s hold on his core constituency of white working class voters, new data from the 2018 election reveal.”

“Though Republican candidates almost everywhere registered large margins among white voters without a college degree, Democrats ran much more competitively among the roughly half of that group who are not evangelical Christians.”

“Democrats, the analysis found, ran particularly well this year among white working-class women who are not evangelicals, a group that also displayed substantial disenchantment in the exit poll with Trump’s performance. Those women could be a key constituency for Democrats in 2020 in pivotal Rust Belt states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where relatively fewer blue-collar whites are also evangelical Christians.”

2018 Campaign, White House

North Carolina Republicans Call for New Election

December 11, 2018 · 3:46 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The North Carolina Republican Party said Tuesday that a new election should be held in North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District if a new allegation regarding the leak of early-voting results before Election Day is proven,” Politico reports.

The Charlotte Observer reported that early voting totals from Bladen County may have been leaked. A witness who signed that vote tabulation wrote in a sworn affidavit that the totals were “viewed by officials at the one-stop site who were not judges.”

2018 Campaign NC-9

Bonus Quote of the Day

December 11, 2018 · 1:39 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“I know that I’m not done to elected office. There’s something in me that still says I have a role to play going forward as a policy maker.”

— Failed Florida gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum (D), in an interview with McClatchy.

2018 Campaign FL-Gov

Top Warren Operative Talking to O’Rourke

December 11, 2018 · 9:39 am ET · Leave a Comment

Washington Post: “Mindy Myers, who was one of the primary architects of Warren’s political rise and has remained one of her close advisers, had been expected to play a senior role in the senator’s campaign. But she has been in talks with several rival campaigns and is planning to meet soon with Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX), who is considering a presidential run.”

“Myers ran Warren’s 2012 U.S. Senate campaign and then served as her senate chief of staff, giving her a deep understanding of Warren’s strengths and weaknesses.”

First Read: “So yeah, Beto is starting to look very real for 2020. And maybe more than that, whether he runs or not appears to have frozen the Dem field. Think about that: His decision might be the biggest shoe to drop in the 2020 Democratic race.”

2018 Campaign Beto O'Rourke

Campaign Violations Haunt Newly-Elected Lawmaker

December 10, 2018 · 7:56 am ET · Leave a Comment

Rep.-elect Ross Spano (R-FL) “is struggling to hire office staff as he relies on a controversial adviser: one of the friends at the center of a campaign finance scandal that is rocking the Florida Republican,” Politico reports.

“Spano, an attorney and outgoing state legislator with past financial troubles, recently admitted in a letter to the Federal Election Commission that he might have committed a campaign finance ‘violation’ in failing for two months to disclose $180,000 he accepted from two friends.”

“But if the FEC deems the ‘loans’ to be campaign contributions, they would exceed legal donation limits of $2,700 per cycle, per contributor. And experts say it could constitute a criminal violation by Spano and, potentially, the two people who gave his campaign the money — Cary Carreno and Karen Hunt.”

2018 Campaign, Campaign Finance

Harris Says He Would Support a New Election

December 7, 2018 · 3:11 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Mark Harris, the Republican candidate in North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District election, issued a video Friday saying he would ‘wholeheartedly support’ a new election if evidence emerges that criminal activity swayed the outcome of the Nov. 6 race, the Washington Post reports.

Meanwhile, Reuters reports Harris paid more than $525,000 to a political consulting firm at the center of a probe of possible absentee ballot fraud in the race.

2018 Campaign NC-9

O’Rourke Raised More than $80 Million

December 7, 2018 · 7:08 am ET · Leave a Comment

Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) ended up raising an astonishing $80.1 million in his failed bid to unseat Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), the Dallas Morning News reports.

“The final tally, released late Thursday, is sure to intensify speculation that O’Rourke could mount a campaign in 2020 against President Trump.”

“Much of the attention on O’Rourke has focused on a frenetic campaign style that helped him come within three points of toppling Cruz — the best a Democrat has done statewide in Texas in years — and a social-media-friendly charisma that captivated liberals all over the U.S.”

2018 Campaign TX-Sen

Democrat Withdraws Concession In North Carolina

December 6, 2018 · 6:05 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Dan McCready (D) withdrew his concession in a North Carolina congressional race that has been roiled by accusations of fraud, the Washington Post reports.

McCready also called on rival Mark Harris (R) “to tell the American people exactly what he knew and when he knew it.”

2018 Campaign NC-9

GOP Officials Had Early Warnings of Fraud

December 6, 2018 · 2:33 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Republican officials had early warnings of voting irregularities in North Carolina congressional race that are now the subject of probes,” the Washington Post reports.

In the days immediately after the GOP primary, aides to Rep. Robert Pittenger (R-NC), who lost the race, told the state party’s executive director that they believed fraud had occurred. GOP officials did little to scrutinize the results, instead turning their attention to the general-election campaign.

2018 Campaign NC-9

Incumbency Is Much Less Valuable Now

December 6, 2018 · 9:33 am ET · Leave a Comment

Nathaniel Rakich: “For decades, running as an incumbent was undoubtedly a huge advantage in electoral politics. As recently as 20 years ago, holding office added an average of 8 percentage points to a candidate’s margin.”

“But in this century, experts say, the incumbency advantage has significantly diminished. Now the verdict is in for the 2018 election: According to our method of calculating it… the electoral benefit of already being a member of Congress this year was down to less than 3 points.”

2018 Campaign

Democratic Popular Vote Lead Keeps Growing

December 5, 2018 · 2:00 pm ET · Leave a Comment

The Cook Political Report shows that the Democratic lead in the U.S. House popular vote for the 2018 midterms is now up to 8.5%.

Steve Benen: “For comparison purposes, note that in 2010 – which was widely seen as a GOP ‘wave’ cycle – Republicans won the U.S. House popular vote by 6.6%. In 1994, which was seen as a Republican ‘revolution,’ the GOP won the U.S. House popular vote by 7.1%.”

2018 Campaign

Newspaper Calls for New Election In North Carolina

December 5, 2018 · 12:12 pm ET · Leave a Comment

The Charlotte Observer calls for a new election in North Carolina’s 9th congressional district:

“There may be no way, however, to know how widespread the fraud was, or whether it involved enough ballots to potentially change the outcome of the election — a 905-vote victory for Republican Mark Harris over Democrat Dan McCready. But we do know enough. Unless new evidence somehow clears the clouds hanging over this election, the Board of Elections should toss out the 9th District results.”

2018 Campaign NC-9

The 2018 Midterms Get Worse for Republicans

December 4, 2018 · 7:28 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Cook Political Report: “Just when it looked like the 2018 House outcome couldn’t get any worse for Republicans than a 40-seat loss, a deepening absentee ballot fraud scam has cast into doubt an open North Carolina seat previously called for the GOP. The scandal is now a full-blown national news story and it’s possible the state board of elections, which has refused to certify the race, could order a new election altogether.”

“It’s quite likely this race will persist in legal limbo well beyond when the new House is seated in the first week of January.”

2018 Campaign NC-9

Hoyer Says House Will Consider Not Seating Harris

December 4, 2018 · 12:00 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Incoming House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) told reporters that there is a “substantial question” about the election in the 9th Congressional District, where Mark Harris (R) held a slim lead over Dan McCready (D), the Washington Post reports.

“State investigators are examining the work of a local operative in a growing fraud investigation that has delayed certification of Harris’s narrow win. Hoyer said unless the questions are resolved, the House should hold off on letting Harris take the oath of office on Jan. 3 when new members are sworn in.”

2018 Campaign, House of Representatives NC-9

Voting Access Is Focus of Today’s Georgia Runoff

December 4, 2018 · 9:06 am ET · Leave a Comment

“As a battle over the fairness of Georgia’s recent election for governor moves from the political arena to the courtroom, two men are locked in a runoff race, with far less fanfare, to oversee the future of the state’s election apparatus,” the AP reports.

“Republican state Rep. Brad Raffensperger faces former Democratic congressman John Barrow in a Dec. 4 runoff for Georgia secretary of state after neither garnered the more than 50% of votes required to win outright on Nov. 6.”

2018 Campaign, Election Administration Georgia

Alienation of Young Voters Threatens GOP

December 4, 2018 · 8:37 am ET · Leave a Comment

Ron Browstein: “The sharp turn against the Republican Party by young people in the 2018 election may be only the overture to an even greater political risk for the GOP in 2020.”

“Both historical voting patterns and underlying demographic trends suggest that the biggest difference in the electorate between this election and the next one is that relatively younger voters will cast a greater share of the votes in the presidential year — perhaps a much larger share. Even with much higher than usual turnout among young voters this year, voters 45 and below are likely to increase their proportion of the total vote from just under three-in-ten this year to something closer to four-in-ten by 2020, historical trends suggest.”

2018 Campaign

Similarities Discovered Between Absentee Ballots

December 3, 2018 · 7:02 pm ET · Leave a Comment

WSOC-TV found what “appears to be a targeted effort to illegally pick up ballots” in North Carolina’s 9th congressional district, “in which even the person picking them up had no idea whether those ballots were even delivered to the elections board.”

Consistently, the station “found the same people signing as witnesses for the people voting, which is very rare.”

2018 Campaign, Election Administration NC-9

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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