Washington Post: “Yet in all three races, Democrats have made a tactical decision not to turn the contests into a referendum on Trump’s alleged scandals and instead are focusing on policy decisions by the president and congressional Republicans.”

“Democratic strategists privately say that this might be the recurring theme through the November 2018 midterm elections. Democrats say that they have learned a lesson from the 2016 elections, in which House Democratic candidates relentlessly focused their campaigns on trying to tie Republican incumbents to the personal scandals of Trump or some of his more outlandish policy statements.”

“That strategy failed in almost spectacular fashion.”

New York Times: “The contrast between what Democrats in Washington are consumed by and what their candidates are running on illustrates an emerging challenge for the party as the president becomes ever more engulfed in controversy: For all the misfortunes facing their foe in the White House, Democrats have yet to devise a coherent message on the policies that President Trump used to draw working-class voters to his campaign.”

“House Republicans facing tough reelection bids are running for cover from Donald Trump — an early sign that they believe the president’s deepening scandals could cost them their seats and even put the House in play,” Politico reports.

“More than 10 centrist Republicans over the past 48 hours have criticized Trump for reportedly sharing classified information with Russian officials or allegedly trying to quash an FBI investigation.”

A new Public Policy Polling survey shows Democrats now have a 49% to 38% lead overall on the generic congressional ballot.

“Even more notable though is that among voters who say they’re ‘very excited’ to turn out in the 2018 election, the Democratic lead balloons to 27 points at 61% to 34%. The outcome of lower turnout midterm elections often hinges on which side is more engaged, and Democrats have the clear advantage at this point on that front — 63% of their voters say they’re ‘very excited’ about voting in next year’s election, compared to only 52% of Republicans who say the same.”

Also of note: Only 25% of voters support the GOP health care bill, while 52% are opposed.

First Read: “Trump’s 39% job rating is a screaming alarm bell for the Republican Party when you think about the midterms, which are still more than 500 days away. To put Trump’s 39% into perspective, George W. Bush didn’t reach that level in the NBC/WSJ poll until October 2005, so after the Social Security debacle, after the Iraq war turned south, and after Hurricane Katrina. And the GOP lost the House and Senate the following year. And Barack Obama NEVER reached 39% in our poll — his lowest approval rating was 40% in September 2014, right before Democrats lost the Senate (after losing the House in 2010).”

Jonathan Swan: “I’m beginning to hear senior Republicans fret about Democrats recruiting unusually high quality House candidates for the 2018 midterms. They worry that with Trump in turmoil, accomplished progressives view next year as a their best chance in ages to win a congressional seat.”

“A DCCC source tells me the Democratic committee has already had serious conversations with more than 300 potential candidates in about 75 districts.”

“With the White House in meltdown mode, top Republican Party officials and operatives gathered at a posh oceanside resort here and contemplated a 2018 midterm election that will test them in unimaginable ways,” Politico reports.

“The private talks over the three-day meeting pulled back the curtain on a Republican Party leadership grappling with a profoundly unstable White House. While some attendees shrugged off the firestorm surrounding the firing of FBI Director James Comey and put a positive spin on the latest Trump controversy, others conceded they were struggling to adapt to a a political moment without precedent.”

“Democratic activist groups have a new plan for their party to take back control of Congress: Raise money for yet-to-be determined Democratic nominees,” the HuffPost reports.

“At least three Democratic-allied groups ― including ActBlue, the biggest online fundraiser for Democratic candidates ― are raking in money from donors who don’t care who they’re supporting, as long as it’s a Democrat in a certain district.”

“Immediately after House Republicans passed a bill to repeal Obamacare… the three groups combined to raise more than $2 million in less than 24 hours for dozens of Democratic nominees whose identities will be determined at a later date.”

“Senate Republicans landed a top-tier candidate in West Virginia but have struggled to recruit well-known GOP challengers in several states where President Trump romped and Democratic incumbents warily face re-election,” the AP reports.

“In Wisconsin, Michigan and other states, Republicans have passed on challenging Democrats. Trump’s abysmal approval ratings loom large as does the typically rough going for the president’s party in midterm elections. Democratic senators in states Trump carried last year have capitalized on their party’s resistance to the president to post robust early fundraising.”

Charlie Cook: “Since In­aug­ur­a­tion Day, Pres­id­ent Trump has had the low­est job-ap­prov­al rat­ings of any newly elec­ted pres­id­ent since the first ‘sci­en­tific­ally based’ poll by George Gal­lup in 1936. More than any­thing else, midterm elec­tions are ref­er­enda on the in­cum­bent pres­id­ent. Ob­vi­ously no one knows what is go­ing to hap­pen in next year’s midterm elec­tions, but ana­lysts who have watched con­gres­sion­al elec­tions for a long time are see­ing signs that 2018 could be a wave elec­tion that flips con­trol of the House to Demo­crats.”

“The late Demo­crat­ic Speak­er Tip O’Neill was fam­ous for hav­ing said, ‘all polit­ics is loc­al.’ I would add an im­port­ant caveat: ‘All polit­ics is loc­al, ex­cept when it’s not.’ Roughly once a dec­ade we see a tid­al wave elec­tion, al­most al­ways at midterm, in which an in­vis­ible hand seems to boost can­did­ates of one party and drag down can­did­ates of the oth­er. Can­did­ates who nor­mally win big end up win­ning by smal­ler mar­gins. Law­makers who usu­ally have com­pet­it­ive races of­ten get sucked away by the un­der­tow. Dis­tricts that should be safe are no longer safe. Strong cam­paigns lose to weak cam­paigns, un­der­fun­ded cam­paigns topple well-fun­ded cam­paigns.”