President Trump launched an attack against the conservative House Freedom Caucus in the 2018 midterm elections if they continue to go against party leaders.
Said Trump: “The Freedom Caucus will hurt the entire Republican agenda if they don’t get on the team, and fast. We must fight them, and Democrats, in 2018!”
Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) told National Journal that he would consider retiring if Mitt Romney ran to replace him.
Said Hatch: “I’ve expressed interest to him. I can see why he might not want to do it, but I can also see why if he did it, it would be a great thing for America.”
Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX), “a Democrat and ex-punk rocker who pulled a stunning upset to win his House seat six years ago, plans to declare his candidacy on Friday for the Senate seat held by Ted Cruz,” the Houston Chronicle reports.
Josh Kraushaar: “Democrats now have a realistic shot at retaking the House in 2018. Each of the past three midterm elections have swung wildly against the party in power—reflective of the longstanding dissatisfaction of voters towards political leadership, no matter who’s in charge. Trump’s job approval rating is hovering around 40 percent, a toxic level for the dozens of Republicans running for reelection in swing districts. Republicans would be foolish to assume that President Obama’s coalition of millennials and nonwhite voters—many of whom stayed home in past midterm elections—remains disengaged given their aversion to Trump.”
“Politically speaking, the health care bill couldn’t have been more damaging for Republicans. In a disciplined Congress, safe-seat Republicans would be more willing to take risky votes so those in competitive seats could maintain some independence from the party. But this time, hard-line conservatives in the Freedom Caucus declared their unstinting opposition early on, forcing some vulnerable Republicans to go on record in support of the unpopular legislation—which didn’t even come to a vote. Adding insult to injury, Trump bragged on Twitter that the health care exchanges would collapse as a result of his inaction—the worst possible message to send to anyone who viewed Trump as a can-do executive.”
“The end result is the worst of all worlds: a party that can’t get things done, a president with declining job-approval numbers, swing-district members flushed out, and the base disillusioned.”
Stuart Rothenberg says “the last two months have only confirmed my earlier assessment that the House will see a real fight for control next year.”
“There’s a storm that’s going to hit Republicans in 2018. The only question is if it is going to be Category 2 or Category 5.”
— Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-TX), quoted by the New York Times.
NRCC Chair Steve Stivers (R-OH) is mapping the House GOP’s 2018 midterm election battle, the Washington Examiner reports.
Explained Stivers: “I’ve devised a pretty simple strategy for the folks here for the 2018 election. It’s, and this is a technical term, raise a shit ton of money. No. 2, use that money to expand the playing field on the Democrats.”
Connecticut state Sen. Ted Kennedy Jr. (D) is said by multiple sources to be strongly leaning toward a run for Connecticut governor in 2018, the Connecticut Post reports.
“A person close to Kennedy put the chances at ’90 percent’ that the health care lawyer and son of the late ‘liberal lion’ Edward M. Kennedy jumps into the race, capitalizing on his name recognition and a potential vacuum if fellow Democrat Dannel P. Malloy opts not to seek a third term as governor.”
Stuart Rothenberg: “If Hillary Clinton had won the 2016 presidential election, the GOP would now be headed to a dramatic 6-8 seat Senate gain next year, maybe even more, if history is any guide.”
“But with Donald Trump in the White House, Republican prospects are much less certain.”
“That doesn’t mean the GOP can’t or won’t have a successful 2018 cycle in the Senate. Given the Senate seats up, the president’s party could still win half a dozen seats or more. But there is no doubt that Trump’s victory in 2016 changed the national political environment in a way that makes next year’s midterms much more challenging for his party.”
“I honestly think many of you will lose your seats in 2018 if you don’t get this done.”
— President Trump, quoted by Politico, talking to House Republicans about the GOP plan to repeal and replace Obamacare.
“Elizabeth Warren’s creative media-dodging habits are a running joke among her home-state press corps. Whenever the senator makes a public appearance, Massachusetts reporters know to keep one eye fixed on the exit doors. But that might be changing,” Politico reports.
“In just the last week alone, the notoriously press-averse progressive icon held three open-to-media events back home, followed by lengthy huddles with reporters on a wide range of issues ranging from her Senate votes to Donald Trump’s wiretapping accusations to the 2020 race.”
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Democrats have a path to winning a House majority next year, but that possibility is highly dependent on variables over which they have effectively no control. That’s the takeaway from our initial ratings of 2018’s House races, a list that is heavy on Republicans who start this cycle only mildly endangered.”
“Historically, the president’s party loses ground in a midterm: That’s what happened in 36 of the 39 midterms since the Civil War. American political history is dotted with elections where the president’s party suffered big losses because of a bad economy (1930, 1938, 1958, and 2010 are all examples), unpopular wars (1950, 1966, and 2006), scandal (1974), or other factors.”
“If a wave is developing, we may be able to track it through President Trump’s approval rating (particularly if it falls into the 30s) and/or the House generic ballot. Watch to see if the latter metric, which measures national opinions on how voters intend to vote in their local House race, starts to show a significant Democratic lead approaching double digits in polling averages. Those are the kinds of numbers it’s probably going to take for Democrats to crack the GOP’s House majority, which is protected both by the power of incumbency and by favorable district lines in many key states.”
Politico: “McQuade was among more than 40 U.S. attorneys appointed by former President Barack Obama and let go by the president last week, an act that suddenly flooded the political marketplace with experienced federal prosecutors of the sort both parties love to tap to run for high office.”
“It’s a move that could come back to haunt the GOP. New York is buzzing with rumors about what’s next for Preet Bharara, the highest-profile of the former U.S. attorneys, who has been tipped for elected office in the past. Kenneth Polite, the former U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Louisiana, resigned Friday and immediately reinvigorated talk of a run for state attorney general, mayor of New Orleans, or Orleans Parish sheriff.”
Los Angeles Times: “A month after Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA) won reelection in the closest congressional race in the country, the congressman got a warning that his next contest could be even tougher. An internal poll by Issa’s campaign showed a nearly 10-percentage point drop in his favorability ratings between mid-October and early December — and that one likely reason the lawmaker’s image took a hit was because of his support for President Trump.”
Speaker Paul Ryan “expressed confidence that House Republicans’ Obamacare replacement could pass the Senate but also acknowledged the potential reality of the GOP’s failure to advance the legislation to the president’s desk: a 2018 bloodbath,” Politico reports.
Said Ryan: “I do believe that if we don’t keep our word to the people who sent us here, yeah.”
Former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) “won’t be back,” the Los Angeles Times reports.
“He said Sunday that he is not interested in running for the U.S. Senate, after rumors bubbled last week that he was considering a campaign for the seat currently held by Sen. Dianne Feinstein.”
Said Schwarzenegger: “I’m deeply flattered by all of the people who have approached me about running for Senate, but my mission right now is to bring sanity to Washington through redistricting reform like we passed here in California.”
Politico: “With the GOP in charge of Washington — and charging ahead with their own remake of the health care system — the Democratic Party is convinced that the politics of the ever-potent issue is shifting dramatically in their favor.”
“House Democrats are angling to make the GOP’s plans to reverse Obamacare’s Medicaid expansion and slash insurance subsidies the defining issue of the 2018 midterms. Some party officials privately say Democrats could ride a backlash over Obamacare repeal all the way to control of the lower chamber — and, in the Senate, stem what are expected to be heavy losses thanks to a Republican-leaning map.”
Former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) may be mulling a political comeback, Politico reports.
“The prospect of Schwarzenegger’s return to elected politics in a 2018 U.S. Senate run — possibly as an independent — is generating increasing buzz in state Republican circles, fueled by the former governor’s seeming ability to get under the skin of President Donald Trump on social media.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.