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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 193

The Magnificent Seven

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 193: The Magnificent Seven

Latino Voter Shifts Alarm Republicans

November 6, 2025 · 6:00 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Republicans have spent a year cheering President Donald Trump’s gains among Latino voters in November 2024. Now, Democrats’ big wins among Latino voters this week have some Republicans sounding the alarm,” NBC News reports.

“Democrats’ double-digit victories in governor’s races in New Jersey and Virginia, as well as wins in other elections in New York City and California, were driven in part by high levels of support among Latino voters.”

2025 Campaign

So What Did They Learn?

November 6, 2025 · 7:00 am ET · Leave a Comment

Playbook: “For all the initial noise about poor candidates, Republicans clearly understand the fundamental problem they face: that the oldest cliche in modern U.S. politics — it’s the economy, stupid — still holds true. Cost-of-living issues were the central reason Trump won in 2024, and the central reason Republicans lost badly this week.”

“Unsurprisingly, then, Republicans are now urging Trump to focus more on household issues over the coming months, and less on the global dealmaking (and war-making, and peacemaking) which have been a surprisingly central feature of his second term.”

2025 Campaign

Pollsters Didn’t See the Blue Wave Coming

November 5, 2025 · 8:57 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Once the votes were tallied, Republican candidates weren’t the only ones who fell short in Tuesday’s elections. The pollsters had a bad night, too,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“As a group, firms that publicly release their polls failed to detect the wave that gave a landslide win to Democrats in New Jersey, where their candidate for governor won by 13 points.”

2025 Campaign, Polling

The Anti-MAGA Majority Reemerges

November 5, 2025 · 4:00 pm ET · Leave a Comment

David Graham: “Off-year elections are never quite the crystal ball for midterms that political junkies want, but one thing that last night’s results seem to convey clearly is that many voters are unhappy with President Donald Trump.”

“Elections for New York City mayor, governors of New Jersey and Virginia, and gerrymandering in California had their own local dynamics, but voters in these heavily nationalized contests were united in their rejection of Trump and his priorities. The results give some reason to doubt Trump’s claim that his 2024 victory was ‘a historic realignment’ of American politics.”

2025 Campaign

Republican Lose Supermajority in Mississippi

November 5, 2025 · 2:51 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Johnny DuPree, a Democrat who served as the mayor of Hattiesburg, Mississippi, for 16 years, has won a Republican-held Mississippi Senate seat, helping break the Republican Party’s supermajority for the first time in 13 years,” the Mississippi Free Press reports.

2025 Campaign

What’s Bothering Republicans Today

November 5, 2025 · 2:45 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Inside the White House, there are two main takeaways from last night’s miserable performance for the Republican Party,” Politico reports.

“The first one – that fielding quality candidates matters – is the one GOP officials are eagerly messaging.”

“But the second, perhaps more existential issue, is that President Donald Trump isn’t focused enough on the issues that matter most to the voters the party needs.”

2025 Campaign

Member feature

Do Candidates Matter?

November 5, 2025 · 2:27 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Political scientists have long argued that candidates themselves may not matter as much as political junkies think — and in a polarized era, that’s even more true.

Last night’s election results seem to prove the point.

Read the rest of this column

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2025 Campaign, Members, Talking Points

Minneapolis Mayor Fends Off Democratic Socialist

November 5, 2025 · 1:52 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Minneapolis Democratic Mayor Jacob Frey defeated democratic socialist Omar Fateh and 13 other challengers Wednesday during the final round of counting in the city’s ranked-choice voting election,” the AP reports.

“Frey, who secured a third term, led Fateh by about 10 percentage points after Tuesday night’s first round of counting but didn’t cross the 50%-plus-one-vote threshold he needed to win outright.”

2025 Campaign

Cuomo Never Congratulated Mamdani

November 5, 2025 · 12:06 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Zohran Mamdani told NY1 he didn’t get a congratulatory call from either Andrew Cuomo or Eric Adams last night.

He did get a congratulatory call from Curtis Sliwa.

2025 Campaign

Another Bonus Quote of the Day

November 5, 2025 · 12:00 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“If anyone can show a nation betrayed by Donald Trump how to defeat him, it is the city that gave rise to him. So Donald Trump, since I know you’re watching, I have four words for you: Turn the volume up.”

— New York City mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani (D), in his victory speech.

2025 Campaign

Extra Bonus Quote of the Day

November 5, 2025 · 11:00 am ET · Leave a Comment

“The midterms start tonight and the warning signs are flashing.”

— Steve Bannon, on his podcast.

2025 Campaign, 2026 Campaign

Bannon Warns Republicans Not to Gloat About Mamdani

November 5, 2025 · 10:32 am ET · Leave a Comment

“More than a few Republicans are celebrating Zohran Mamdani’s victory, seeing the 34-year-old democratic socialist as a political gift and an albatross for the Democratic Party. Steve Bannon is not among them,” Politico reports.

“The former White House chief strategist has long preached the idea that populism is the engine of modern politics. And he sees Mamdani’s election as mayor of New York City as proof of its staying power — and a sign of the growing anti-establishment force on the left that Republicans would be foolish to ignore.”

Said Bannon: “Tonight should be a wake up call to the populist nationalist movement under President Trump. These are very serious people, and they need to be addressed seriously.”

2025 Campaign

Bonus Quote of the Day

November 5, 2025 · 10:00 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Enough with the premature obituaries. The Democratic Party is back.”

— House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, on X.

2025 Campaign, Democrats

Centrist Democrats Sound the Alarm

November 5, 2025 · 9:55 am ET · Leave a Comment

A new memo from the center-left Third Way argues that despite “excellent” and “broadly applicable” campaign tactics, Zohran Mamdani’s “policies and message, which are radical and politically toxic outside the deep blue confines of New York City, do not translate.”

It adds: “We therefore urge Democrats at all levels to resist the pressure to align with Mamdani’s politics and agenda.”

2025 Campaign, Democrats

Tired of So Much Winning?

November 5, 2025 · 9:22 am ET · Leave a Comment

Playbook: “These were the first major elections since Donald Trump returned to the White House, and there’s no other way of spinning the voters’ response: Democrats out-performed expectations in every significant race across America…”

“The margins of victory were immense. Spanberger won by more than 15 percentage points — far outpacing any recent Democratic win in Virginia, including Ralph Northam’s blowout 2017 victory at the equivalent point of Trump’s first term. In a New Jersey gubernatorial contest billed as a close-run, Sherrill’s double-digit win almost matched her former roommate’s in Virginia. Sherrill flipped at least five Trump-supporting counties back to the Democrats last night.”

2025 Campaign

Trump Rails Against Election Results

November 5, 2025 · 9:01 am ET · Leave a Comment

“President Donald Trump railed against the results of several elections before they were officially called for the Democrats on Tuesday, previewing a slew of losses for the president’s party in the first major elections since he started his second term,” the Washington Post reports.

“In social media posts Tuesday, Trump claimed without evidence that there was widespread fraud surrounding California’s Proposition 50 ballot measure, a Democratic-led effort to change the state’s congressional map in response to Republican-led redistricting in Texas. He also insulted Jewish voters who supported Zohran Mamdani in New York City, and alleged that energy costs and crime would spike if Democratic gubernatorial candidates won in New Jersey and Virginia…”

“The four elections that Trump targeted on social media broke handily for the Democrats, the first major political blow to the president since he reclaimed the Oval Office last year.”

2025 Campaign

Trump’s New Coalition Was Short-Lived

November 5, 2025 · 9:00 am ET · Leave a Comment

Washington Post: “One encouraging sign for Democrats: They appeared to fare far better with voters of color than they did in last year’s presidential election, when Trump won close to half of Latino voters and roughly doubled his support among Black voters to 15 percent.”

2025 Campaign

A Good Night for Gavin Newsom

November 5, 2025 · 8:46 am ET · Leave a Comment

Wall Street Journal: “California’s Proposition 50 appears passed after Newsom and other top Democrats convinced voters that temporarily redrawing congressional maps was the best way to counter Trump. No Democrat has clashed more with the president during Trump’s second term than Newsom, who is considering a run for president in 2028. This victory gives him some momentum as he attempts to claim the party’s leadership mantle.”

“The new maps will likely eliminate five GOP-held congressional seats, a direct response to Texas redrawing its maps in an effort to gain five Republican seats of their own. Other GOP states have followed suit and some Democratic leaders have said they will too.”

2025 Campaign, Redistricting

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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