Cook Political Report: “With an increasingly sour national environment for Republicans, the Senate battlefield is shifting in Democrats’ favor. But due to the difficulty of the map, winning back a majority still remains a tall order. The GOP remain the narrowing favorites to retain the upper chamber. However, that outlook could change in the coming months.”

“We are shifting four ratings, all in Democrats’ favor. Two seats move out of the Toss Up column to Lean Democrat — the open Republican seat in North Carolina, which represents a net pickup for Democrats, and Sen. Jon Ossoff’s seat in Georgia, where a messy GOP primary still reigns as the incumbent continues to stockpile cash.”

“Ohio, where even recent GOP polling has shown former Sen. Sherrod Brown in a statistical tie with appointed GOP Sen. Jon Husted, shifts from Lean Republican into the Toss Up column.”

“One seat moves from Solid Republican to the periphery of the battleground map into the Likely Republican column: Nebraska, where independent Dan Osborn is back again, this time challenging wealthy Sen. Pete Ricketts.”

“Lev Parnas, a Ukrainian American businessman who served a 20-month sentence for campaign contributions to Republican politicians, including Donald Trump, that secretly came from a Russian oligarch, has announced a bid to unseat María Elvira Salazar, a Cuban American Republican who is in her third term as representative for Florida’s 27th congressional district,” The Guardian reports.

Renee Hardman (D) won a special election for state Senate in Iowa on Tuesday, preventing Republicans from regaining a supermajority in the chamber, Decision Desk HQ projects.

Georgia Democrats continued to gather momentum ahead of next year’s midterm elections, flipping a solidly Republican state House seat in a special election on Tuesday, the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.

The Downballot: “That’s 25 pickups for Democrats nationwide this year—and zero for Republicans.”

“Overall, in more than 60 special elections nationwide, Democrats are outperforming the 2024 presidential results by an average of more than 13 points.”

Eileen Higgins (D) defeated Trump-backed opponent Emilio González (R) in Tuesday night’s runoff for Miami mayor, the Miami Herald reports.

Although the race is technically non-partisan, Higgins is the first Democrat to become mayor of Miami since 1997.

Dan Pfeiffer: “Before tonight, Republicans were already pretty worried about holding onto their razor-thin majority. After a narrow win in a special election in Tennessee, they should be terrified…”

“One year ago, Trump won this district by 22 points. Yet he was entirely absent from the GOP campaign. Republicans never used him in ads. He didn’t campaign for Van Epps. His role was limited to some tweets and then a phone call to Speaker Mike Johnson while Johnson was at a rally. Johnson put the president on speakerphone, but both he and the audience seemed, at best, ambivalent about Trump’s involvement.”

“There’s no question Van Epps’s strategists were banging their heads against the wall, since their entire strategy had been to pretend Trump didn’t exist. But, of course, Trump can never resist making it about himself.”

“James Solomon, a 41-year-old city councilmember elected with the support of anti-machine progressives, will be the next mayor of New Jersey’s second largest city,” Politico reports.

“Solomon won Tuesday’s runoff to lead Jersey City, besting disgraced former Gov. Jim McGreevey. Both men are Democrats but from different parts of the party.”

Matt Van Epps (R) is projected to defeat Aftyn Behn (D) in a special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, according to Decision Desk HQ.

All polls are now closed in Tennessee’s 7th congressional district special election race.

Leave your reactions in the comments as results come in.

Time: “To be sure, Democrats are aware they’re still talking about Tennessee. Privately, they’re passing around internal polling that shows them between 7 and 10 points down—losing but maybe possibly within striking distance of a potential upset if lightning strikes.”

“Republicans are looking to hang on to a ruby-red congressional district Tuesday in a surprisingly competitive special election that has become a high-profile test of voters’ attitudes about President Donald Trump’s agenda and Democrats’ response less than a year before the midterm elections,” the Washington Post reports.

“The contest in Tennessee’s 7th District, which Trump won by more than 20 percentage points in 2024, has put the GOP on edge, while raising Democratic hopes about a massive upset or overperformance weeks after a strong showing in off-year elections across several states. Strategists in both parties say they see a competitive race that tilts toward the Republican candidate as each side has flooded the district with money, ads and prominent surrogates not typically seen in such a partisan stronghold.”

For members: An Early Test of a Midterm Wave

“Jersey City voters will head to the polls Tuesday for a runoff to decide whether Jim McGreevey, who resigned from the New Jersey governorship in scandal more than 20 years ago, will complete a political comeback and become their next mayor,” CNN reports.

“McGreevey stepped down less than halfway into his first term, admitting to an extramarital affair and disclosing that he was gay, amid accusations that he abused his official power to pursue a romantic relationship with an aide.”

New York Times: “Speaker Mike Johnson, who flew in from Washington early Monday, called President Trump and put his phone on speaker…”

“The phone call, coupled with the convergence of political heavyweights, underscored just how much Republicans appear rattled by the Tuesday election for what would normally be a safe conservative seat in Tennessee’s Seventh Congressional District.”

“It is the final special election of 2025 and, as Mr. Johnson told reporters, ‘we think what will happen here will be a bellwether for the midterms next year.'”

For members: An Early Test of a Midterm Wave