“To be honest with you, the numbers — when we did that convention, it dropped our numbers. Everybody’s numbers dropped.”
— Ken Paxton (R), quoted by the New York Post, on the impact of the Republican midterm convention.
Brown Leads Husted in Ohio Senate Race
A new USA Today/Suffolk University poll in Ohio finds Sherrod Brown (D) leading Jon Husted (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 44%, with Bill Redpath (L) at 2% and Greg Levy (I) at 1%.
Ohio Senate Race
Sherrod Brown (D) 47%
Jon Husted (R) 44%
Candidates Reject AIPAC Money as Toxic
“It was once an article of faith that alignment with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee brought political blessings. No longer,” Bloomberg reports.
“Across the country, ties between U.S. political candidates from both parties and AIPAC are fraying. The war in Gaza has transformed the organization into a lightning rod and litmus test, while perceptions that the group’s political operations are increasingly partisan soured its relationship with Democrats in particular.”
White House Manages Expectations for Iran Breakthrough
“As the U.S. and Iran continue to speak via mediators in a bid to end the war, the White House is tempering any expectations that a breakthrough might be near,” Semafor reports.
“Some U.S. officials have long conceded that there’s no clear — or clean — way out of the conflict, and that reality has emerged as a major issue for Republicans ahead of the midterms as voters focus on prices.”
The GOP House Seats That Are Nearly Gone
“There’s no question that the House map is very dynamic. It’s also tilting heavily in Democrats’ favor,” Punchbowl News reports.
“No one would’ve predicted, for example, that Republicans and Democrats would pour millions of dollars into a deep-red northern Kentucky seat; a South Florida Republican would rail against President Donald Trump over his hardline immigration policies; and the GOP’s unprecedented mid-decade redistricting war wouldn’t really help them save their razor-thin majority.”
”Things are really bad for Republicans right now. And, yes, we know, individual races can shift on a dime.”
”But there are a number of GOP lawmakers across the country that both parties privately agree are in deep, deep trouble.”
Democrats Hold Solid Leads in Michigan
A new Marist Poll poll in Michigan finds Abdul El-Sayed (D) leading Mike Rogers (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 51% to 44%.
Michigan Senate Race
Abdul El-Sayed (D) 51%
Mike Rogers (R) 44%
The same poll in Michigan finds Jocelyn Benson (D) leading John James (R) in the governor’s race, 53% to 41%.
Michigan Governor’s Race
Jocelyn Benson (D) 53%
John James (R) 41%
Quote of the Day
“They’re cooked. I think Donald Trump is going to tweet five more times that he loves data centers. And that is the official position of their party. This is panic.”
— Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT), quoted by Semafor.
How Hakeem Jeffries Is Courting the Left
“Democrats appear closer than ever to winning the House majority, and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ is already working to corral — and connect with — a growing chorus of progressive dissenters,” the Washington Sun reports.
“At least six progressives who won their House primaries and will likely get elected in November have not committed to supporting Jeffries for speaker should Democrats win a majority. Even just a handful of holdouts could be enough to stand in between Jeffries and the gavel, or, as quite a few Republican speakers have learned, make life as the chamber’s leader very difficult.”
Some Candidates Are Scrubbing Their Websites
“Political candidates often scrub certain topics from their websites after they win a primary election. Usually, they dial back more contentious positions they took during the primary and instead focus on issues with broader appeal. It’s a tradition as old as political websites themselves,” the Washington Post reports.
“But this year, a lot of attention has been paid to how Republicans have quietly been removing mentions of President Donald Trump and his movement from their campaign websites, given the president’s slumping approval rating.”
Peggy Flanagan Barely Ahead in Minnesota Senate Race
A new InsiderAdvantage poll in Minnesota finds Peggy Flanagan (D) leading Michele Tafoya (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 45%, with Rebecca Whiting (L) at 2% and Marisa Simonetti (I) at 1%.
Minnesota Senate Race
Peggy Flanagan (D) 46%
Michele Tafoya (R) 45%
Another Bonus Quote of the Day
“Fuck her. That’s all I can say. And that statement has nothing to do with blind loyalty to Dems. It has everything to do with her being a narcissistic drama queen who has used her platform — such as it is — only to advance herself. Karma will suck.”
— Former Rep. Susan Wild (D-PA), quoted by Fox News, on former Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) not endorsing James Talarico (D) in the U.S. Senate race.
Fox News Agrees to Host Texas Senate Debate
“Fox News agreed Tuesday to host a debate between Senate candidates Ken Paxton (R) and James Talarico (D) of Texas following the Democrat’s challenge to face his opponent on what he characterized as friendly turf,” the Washington Post reports.
“Paxton has not yet agreed to the debate, and his campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.”
Jack Smith Hearing Flops for Republicans
Politico: “Armed with subpoena power in Congress and a friendly Justice Department on their side, Republican lawmakers have spent two years promising to expose former special counsel Jack Smith as the leader of an anti-Trump witch hunt that morphed into a full-blown attempt to take down the Republican establishment.”
“Smith’s appearance Tuesday before the Senate Judiciary Committee — his third time testifying under oath on Capitol Hill, the second time in public — was supposed to be a watershed moment for the GOP intent on extracting a smoking gun ahead of the midterm elections. Instead, the hearing was most memorable for the fusillade of insults hurled by the panel’s Republicans.”
Trump’s Campaign Schedule Is a Bad Sign for Republicans
Ed Kilgore: “This very week, Trump is campaigning in Alabama, Oklahoma, and Ohio — states he carried by 30 percent, 34 percent and 11 percent just two years ago. Yes, there are vulnerable House seats in Alabama and Oklahoma, but that’s a sign of how deep a hole the GOP has dug for itself.”
“A trip to Ohio is arguably more justifiable; there are highly endangered but still winnable Senate and House races along with a close gubernatorial contest (featuring his occasional sidekick Vivek Ramaswamy). But time spent in any red state (including Iowa and Texas, where there are an extraordinary number of ‘fires’ scorching Republican candidates) is time denied in purple states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.”
“The 2026 midterms are to a very dangerous extent being fought on the home turf of the president’s party, leaving too much highly contested ground uncovered.”
11 More House Ratings Shift Towards Democrats
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “A lousy month of polling for Republicans as well as individual developments in certain races prompts us to continue to move House races into better categories for Democrats.”
A Republican Midterm Defeat Will Not Be an Earthquake
Ed Luce: “It is only a slight exaggeration to say that since Republican lawmakers do not have control of Congress, they cannot really lose it. Though Trump treats Congress like a Duma, sufficient handfuls of Republicans have joined Democrats to block some of his wishes. Foremost of these is a bill to impose draconian ID requirements on voters.”
“For the most part, however, Congress has been irrelevant in the last 20 months.”
Trump’s Taxpayer-Funded Ads About to Ramp Up
“President Trump is personally selecting which government-funded ads his administration is airing ahead of the midterms — with more to come,” Axios reports.
Said one administration official: “This is just the beginning.”
Five GOP Senate Candidates Won’t Commit to Trump
New York Times: “Among the nine Republicans whose races are expected to be crucial in determining Senate control, four would like Mr. Trump to join them on the trail ahead of the election, or are open to the possibility, according to their campaigns. Three campaigns left their positions unclear, and two said they would not join the president on the trail.”
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Taegan Goddard
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.
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