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Demographics Won’t Save Democrats

November 10, 2014 at 6:09 am EST By Taegan Goddard 8 Comments

Will Marshall said that Democrats can’t count on demographics to save them.

“Since Obama’s 2008 election, the party has beguiled itself with prospects for a permanent Democratic majority based on forces that are growing in the electorate: minorities, millennials, single and college-educated women, and professionals with advanced degrees. These groups turn out in greater numbers in presidential elections, giving Democrats a presumptive advantage heading into 2016.”

“But the president suffered some erosion of his big margins with such voters in 2012, and there’s no guarantee that the party’s 2016 standard-bearer will be able to recreate the Obama coalition. Polls have shown growing disillusionment with Obama among young voters, who have been slammed by a perfect storm of scarce jobs, falling incomes, and soaring student debt. They mostly stayed home last Tuesday; just 12 percent of the voters were under 30.”

“Nor do Democrats have a lock on Hispanic voters, who still face slack labor markets, zero wage growth, and tight credit even as the “recovery” skews most of its benefits to the top 2 percent. Many also are disappointed about the party’s failure to deliver on its promises to pass immigration reform.”

Filed Under: Democrats

Democrats Plan Their Own Post-Election Autopsy

November 9, 2014 at 8:56 am EST By Taegan Goddard 44 Comments

“Democrats are planning an extensive review of what went wrong in the 2014 and 2010 elections,” the AP reports.

“The goal is to find ways to translate success in presidential campaigns into future midterm contests. Democrats will form a committee in the coming weeks to conduct a ‘top-to-bottom assessment’ of the party’s performance in recent elections.”

Filed Under: Democrats Tagged With: election results

Democratic Bench Thinned Out Again

November 8, 2014 at 3:47 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 57 Comments

“When President Obama was elected in 2008, his victory signaled a generational change and the prospect of renewal for the Democratic Party. Instead, the opposite has occurred. Over the past six years, the party has been hollowed out,” Dan Balz writes.

“The past two midterm elections have been cruel to Democrats, costing them control of the House and now the Senate, and producing a cumulative wipeout in the states. The 2010 and 2014 elections saw the defeat of younger politicians — some in office, others seeking it — who might have become national leaders.”

“As the post-Obama era nears, the Democrats’ best-known leaders in Washington are almost entirely from an older generation, from the vice presidency to most of the major leadership offices in the House and Senate. The generation-in-waiting will have to wait longer.”

Filed Under: Democrats

Maybe Both Parties are Going Extinct

November 4, 2014 at 11:13 am EST By Taegan Goddard 66 Comments

Nick Gillespie: “It’s safe to say that by the end of today, a large chunk of Americans will be bitterly disappointed. If Republicans win big, Democrats will hang their heads and cuss the Koch brothers. If the GOP fails to snag the Senate and a fistful of statehouses, its partisans will mope around and blame Ebola-infected illegal immigrants for the loss.”

“But whichever side emerges victorious, both Republicans and Democrats should face up to a much bigger truth: Neither party as currently constituted has a real future. Fewer and fewer Americans identify as either Republican or Democratic according to Gallup, and both parties are at recent or all-time lows when it comes to approval ratings. Just 39 percent give Democrats a favorable rating and just 33 percent do the same for Republicans. Not coincidentally, each party has also recently had a clear shot at implementing its vision of the good society. If you want to drive down your adversary’s approval rating, just give him the reins of power for a few years.”

Filed Under: Democrats, Republicans

Why Don’t Democrats Vote?

November 1, 2014 at 10:47 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Pew Research study shows that, among people who either aren’t registered to vote or are unlikely to vote in the 2014 midterm elections, 51% favor or lean toward the Democrats, while 30% favor or lean toward the Republicans — a 21-point gap.

The Fix: “With only a few exceptions over the last several decades, more Americans have identified as or leaned toward he Democratic Party than the GOP, according to data from Gallup. And Democrats even today often lead on the generic ballot among registered voters, but not likely voters. But, for Democrats, it’s not just the people who are registered to vote but choose not to; it’s also people who choose not to even register to vote.”

Filed Under: Democrats

The Muzzled Center

October 12, 2014 at 8:05 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Will Marshall: “Not so long ago, U.S. politicians who robotically toed the party line were considered shameless hacks. And ideologues were seen as wingnuts–self-righteous cranks unable to cope with life’s complexities. Today, such people dominate our national politics.”

“In this Manichean hothouse, the battle lines are clear and everyone knows their place. To break ranks on any major issue is treason, to see merit in the other side’s point of view is heresy, to compromise is to sell out and to engage in political horse-trading is corrupt. Finding common ground? That’s so 20th century. Don’t bore us with intellectual honesty, nuance or shades of grey–just pick a side, slug it out and let the best team win.”

Filed Under: Democrats

Democrats Turn on DNC Chief

September 17, 2014 at 8:02 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 1 Comment

DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz “is in a behind-the-scenes struggle with the White House, congressional Democrats and Washington insiders who have lost confidence in her as both a unifying leader and reliable party spokesperson at a time when they need her most,” Politico reports.

“Long-simmering doubts about her have reached a peak after two recent public flubs: criticizing the White House’s handling of the border crisis and comparing the tea party to wife beaters.”

Filed Under: Democrats

Police Union Won’t Back Democratic Convention in Brooklyn

August 26, 2014 at 5:22 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A New York Police Department union leader said he will not back Mayor Bill de Blasio’s (D) bid to host the 2016 Democratic National Convention, warning that New York City is reverting to its crime-ridden “old days” under the administration, Newsday reports.

Filed Under: Democrats

Quote of the Day

August 12, 2014 at 7:57 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“There are times where Democrats drive me nuts.”

— President Obama, quoted bu the Washington Examiner, at a fundraiser on Martha’s Vineyard.

Filed Under: Democrats

Americans are Fed Up with the Political Parties

August 7, 2014 at 8:54 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new CBS News poll finds Americans’ views of both political parties are negative and nearly match historic lows.

“Just 29% of Americans have a favorable view of the Republican Party, down four points from May and just one point above the lowest favorability rating for that party recorded in this poll (in June, 2009). While more — 41% — have a positive impression of the Democratic Party, this percentage is also just one point above the all-time low for the Democratic Party, reached in November 1994.”

Filed Under: Democrats

Extra Bonus Quote of the Day

August 5, 2014 at 3:26 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Well, I think that it may well be the final destruction of much of the modern Democratic Party.”

— Newt Gingrich, in an interview with Laura Ingraham, on President Obama taking executive action on immigration.

Filed Under: Democrats

Top Democrat Says GOP Impeachment Talk Helping

July 29, 2014 at 1:45 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

DCCC Chairman Steve Israel (D-NY) said the Republican lawsuit against and push for impeachment of President Obama is paying dividends for his party, according to The Hill.

Said Israel: “I think that the Republican strategy of lawsuits, approaching impeachment, is fundamentally misfiring.”

He added: “Look, I understand their strategy is intended to gin up their base, but it’s having the unintended consequence of moving our base in a midterm election and also moving persuadable voters, swing voters to us in a midterm election.”

Filed Under: Democrats

How the Left Took Over the Democratic Party

July 26, 2014 at 6:15 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Doug Sosnik: “The lead-in to the 2016 presidential campaign could force a tipping point as early as next year if Hillary Clinton declines to run and a broad field emerges. If that happens, candidates will feel a great deal of pressure to appeal to the highly engaged, energized and well-funded activists who have been clamoring for a robust progressive agenda. Even if Clinton runs, her candidacy won’t preempt the party’s eventual takeover by the activist forces. It will only slow it down. Candidate Clinton, who appears to have the overwhelming support of the activist base, will nevertheless feel pressure from the left to pursue a more economically populist approach to solving our country’s problems.”

“And now, with the left lining up around a Clinton candidacy, the activist base will continue to make incremental progress toward assuming control of the Democratic Party.”

Filed Under: Democrats

Most Still Identify with the Major Parties

July 7, 2014 at 2:44 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Associated Press-Gfk poll finds that a majority of people in the United States identify with either the Democratic or Republican parties.

Key findings: 60% of people said they identify with one of the two major political parties. That number rose to 80%, when those who lean toward either party are included.

Filed Under: Democrats

Democrats Unveil Program to Boost Voter Registration

June 5, 2014 at 10:20 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

MSNBC: “Democrats are set to roll out a new program that uses sophisticated data analysis to identify the neighborhoods that are ripest for registering new voters — potentially making the party’s registration drives far more effective. The effort underlines Democrats’ growing focus on bringing new voters into the process, with the party’s chances for electoral success increasingly hinging on boosting turnout.”

Filed Under: Democrats

Democrats Viewed More Favorably Than Republicans

May 16, 2014 at 7:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Gallup: “Americans view the Democratic Party more favorably than the Republican Party, even though both parties have a net unfavorable rating. Democratic Party favorable ratings have held steady since last June, while Republican favorables have increased slightly from their all-time low last year. Still, if the Republicans’ current favorability ratings hold, they will be the lowest ever for either party in an election year.”

Filed Under: Democrats

Democrats Have a Mega Donor Problem

April 20, 2014 at 7:39 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Week: “Reducing gun violence and curbing global warming are high priorities for most Democrats. So theoretically, they should be thrilled about plans by like-minded billionaires Michael Bloomberg and Tom Steyer to pour money into this year’s midterm elections.”

“But there’s a huge catch: The uber-rich pair could help Democrats lose the Senate and do worse than expected in the House.”

Filed Under: Democrats

Democrats Turn Focus to Women

April 8, 2014 at 9:16 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

First Read: “If you want to know why the Obama White House today is holding another round of events focused on women and equal pay, it’s this important reminder: Female voters have been the difference between Democrats winning and losing elections… The secret to Democratic electoral success is directly through female voters. They know it, and they plan to try to expand that potential advantage via any issue they can (from the economy and health care to contraception).”

Morning Line: “Another key here in a midterm, however, is not just women as a whole, but, in particular, minority and unmarried women. In 2010, for example, turnout dropped among minority and unmarried women. Black women and Latinas combined were down as a share of the electorate 2 points from 2008 (10 percent vs. 12 percent) and 4 points from 2012 (14 percent). Unmarried women were also off 2 points as a share of the electorate (21 percent vs. 23 percent) from 2012. Those numbers may sound small, but they can mean millions of votes.”

“Consider: more than 10 million fewer unmarried women showed up to vote in 2010 than 2008. That’s one-in-three unmarried women, who decided to stay home. Yes, turnout is always down in midterms, but that outpaces married/unmarried men or married women. Democrats and the White House see and know those numbers. They’re the group Democrats are aiming at directly.”

Filed Under: Democrats

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About Political Wire

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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