New York Times: “Polls are traditionally used to measure public opinion, not mold it. But this year, several Democratic campaigns have seized on unreliable polls to push the perception that their candidates are surging to try to solidify support, attract donors and scare off rivals. The rise of prediction markets has also created financial incentives for untrustworthy or even fake political polls at a moment when it has become even more expensive and difficult to conduct high-quality polls.”

“Some Republicans — particularly President Trump — have for years pointed to dubious polling to advance their political goals, but the phenomenon has become far more acute in Democratic primaries this year. In recent weeks, questionable surveys have created confusion and warped perceptions of the results of key primaries for the party.”

“Ahead of the primaries in Florida on Tuesday, the only public poll of the Democratic primary for Senate between Angie Nixon, a progressive state representative, and Alexander S. Vindman, a retired Army lieutenant colonel, was retracted last month,” the New York Times reports.

“It was not much better in the other statewide contests, where polls have been few and far between. The lone exception came in the Republican primary for governor, where pollsters have released 20 surveys this year. Representative Byron Donalds, who has been endorsed by President Trump, led in all of them.”

“Recent weeks have seen the whirring and chirping to life of the various election prognostication machines we’ll all be refreshing between now and November,” NOTUS reports.

“They differ when it comes to the Senate — control there is either a toss-up or a slight Democratic advantage, depending on which you like best. But for the House, they all say the same thing: Republicans will not be in control when all the counting is over.”

“Behind that consensus: Donald Trump’s flatlining poll numbers, huge turnout for Democrats in primaries and special elections, generic ballot averages showing Democrats with a lead. Add the historic headwinds for the party not in the White House in a midterm.”

Dan Pfeiffer: “The bigger the wave, the more Democrats elected, the greater the chance of taking the Senate, and the bigger the rebuke of Trump, his broken promises, his idiotic war, and his rampant corruption.”

“When people talk about a wave (red or blue), they are really referring to the political environment — how much more Democratic or Republican a year will be than a normal one. This is measured by the popular vote margin in House races. For example, in 2018, when Democrats picked up 41 seats, they won the House popular vote by 8.6%. But of course, we only know the margin after the election, so it doesn’t do us a lot of good in forecasting what may happen. Prior to the election, the political environment is measured by the generic ballot. As of today, according to Nate Silver, Democrats lead the generic ballot by 6.7%.”

“This is about the same as it was at this point in 2018. It could certainly go up as we get closer to the election, as more voters who disapprove of Trump decide to vote for Democrats this fall.”