“Italy’s Giorgia Meloni has criticised Donald Trump’s plan to buy diesel from Russia, calling it a ‘very risky choice’ that undermines international pressure on Vladimir Putin to end his war in Ukraine,” the Financial Times reports.
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October 14, 2026
89 posts · Wednesday
Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 191
Blue Wave Update
Trial Balloon · Ep. 191: Blue Wave Update
Democrats Narrowly Lead in Texas
A new University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll in Texas finds James Talarico (D) leading Ken Paxton (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 50% to 47%.
Texas Senate Race
James Talarico (D) 50%
Ken Paxton (R) 47%
The same poll in Texas finds Gina Hinojosa (D) leading Greg Abbott (R) in the governor’s race, 49% to 48%.
Texas Governor’s Race
Gina Hinojosa (D) 49%
Greg Abbott (R) 48%
Top Republicans Believe the House Is a Lost Cause
“Some top congressional Republicans have privately concluded that it is likely impossible for them to keep control of the House of Representatives in the midterm elections, and they are now focused on limiting the scale of the defeat and salvaging the party’s Senate majority,” Politico reports.
“Five senior Republican lawmakers, all granted anonymity to speak candidly about their party’s dire position, told Politico the House had all but slipped away.”
House Republicans Abandon Another District
The top House GOP super PAC is abandoning its efforts to beat Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) in a district that Republicans redrew in their favor last year, Punchbowl News reports.
The cut is a stunning development and signals just how unwieldy the House map has become for the GOP with less than three weeks until the midterms.
Judge Weighs Challenge to North Carolina Ballot Rules
“Just one day before early voting begins in North Carolina, a federal court is set to hear a lawsuit challenging new rules on mail-in ballots, which were approved in a last-minute vote by the Republican-majority State Board of Elections,” the Raleigh News & Observer reports.
IRS Delays Release of Data Showing Impact of Tax Cuts
“The Trump administration is delaying the release of detailed data showing how Republicans’ 2025 tax cuts affected millions of Americans’ taxes, even as it tries to sell voters on the law ahead of the midterm elections,” Politico reports.
“The numbers document which tax breaks were claimed by people in different income brackets, as well as information like how much they paid in taxes.”
Troy Jackson Narrowly Leads in Maine Senate Race
A new Suffolk University poll in Maine finds Troy Jackson (D) leading Susan Collins (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 49% to 47%.
Maine Senate Race
Troy Jackson (D) 49%
Susan Collins (R) 47%
The same poll in Maine finds Hannah Pingree (D) leading Robert Charles (R) in the governor’s race, 49% to 38%, with Rick Bennett (I) at 8%.
Maine Governor’s Race
Hannah Pingree (D) 49%
Robert Charles (R) 38%
Rick Bennett (I) 8%
The Working-Class Shift Is a Troubling Sign for Republicans
“The Republican Party’s election challenge this year comes in large part from groups that shifted toward President Trump in 2024 and have since slipped back—Latino voters and young voters, among them. Trump lost voters under age 30 by a mere 4 percentage points in 2024. Now, they say they will vote for a Democrat over a Republican for Congress by 20 points, the most recent Wall Street Journal poll shows,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The shift among another group could be a more pressing worry. Working-class, white voters—those without a four-year college degree—have been the main pillar of the Trump coalition. Trump won them by more than 30 points in 2024 and by 25 points in 2020.”
“Today, half of working-class, white voters say Trump’s economic policies made the economy worse, while only 28% say they made it better.”
A Trump Backlash Endangers Susan Collins
“Senator Susan Collins, Republican of Maine, is facing a moment like no other in her three decades in office, one that is testing whether her moderate brand of politics can survive perhaps the most polarizing presidency in modern history,” the New York Times reports.
“Ms. Collins, a symbol of centrism and a paragon of decorum, has won five elections in a state that reliably votes for Democrats in presidential races by burnishing her reputation as an independent-minded Republican who delivers for Maine.”
”But this year, she is battling forces that are squeezing her from several directions: a working-class rage about rising prices, a call for generational change and, above all, a burning desire among many voters to make a statement against President Trump’s divisive second term.”
Democrats Can’t Just Be Voters’ ‘Rebound Boyfriend’
“Sen. Brian Schatz cautioned that if Democrats win big in next month’s elections, it would be because of President Donald Trump — and Democrats will need to work hard to come up with an agenda to keep voters on their side,” the Washington Sun reports.
Said Schatz: “What’s happening out there in the world is not that we unlocked the proper slogan or messaging technique to make sure that people give us a chance, but rather that Donald Trump himself is our best messenger. Trump has sort of driven people into our arms, and if people give us a chance, we should understand that we’re sort of the rebound boyfriend.”
Republicans Are Spending More to Get Less
“Republicans are spending hundreds of millions of dollars on advertising in battleground Senate races as they scramble to defend increasingly competitive GOP seats in the final stretch of the midterms,” CNN reports.
“But when it comes to how far they can stretch a dollar, they’re effectively paying premium prices at Whole Foods while Democrats are shopping deals at Costco.”
“Across nine of the most competitive Senate races last month, Republicans cumulatively outspent Democrats on broadcast TV ads by nearly 100% more, $233 million to $121 million, according to AdImpact data, but only saw about 40% more rating points.”
James Talarico Holds Slim Lead in Texas
A new Marist poll in Texas finds James Talarico (D) leading Ken Paxton (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 45%.
Texas Senate Race
James Talarico (D) 47%
Ken Paxton (R) 45%
The same poll in Texas finds Greg Abbott (R) leading Gina Hinojosa (D) in the governor’s race, 49% to 45%.
Texas Governor’s Race
Greg Abbott (R) 49%
Gina Hinojosa (D) 45%
Ilhan Omar Investigation Focuses On Citizenship Papers
“The federal investigation that prompted the search of Rep. Ilhan Omar’s D.C. residence on Monday centers on claims that she or her late father may have lied on decades-old immigration paperwork to secure legal status and eventually U.S. citizenship,” the Washington Post reports.
”Omar — a Minnesota Democrat who was born in Somalia and fled civil war there with her family before eventually immigrating to the United States in 1995 — has repeatedly rejected such allegations, which have circulated in conservative media for years.”
New York Times: Justice Dept. issues subpoenas in Ilhan Omar investigation.
Trump Pardons Two Auto Workers During Rally in Alaska
“President Trump during a political rally in the state late Tuesday granted onstage pardons to two Alaska auto shop owners who pleaded guilty to violating the Clean Air Act — an unusually public use of the president’s clemency power,” CBS News reports.
“The president said the two men — Zachary Czubak and Patrick Fleming — were ‘wrongly charged,’ and cast the charges against the two men as an example of how the Biden-era Justice Department ‘viciously targeted the Alaskan way of life.'”
Washington Sun: Trump stumps for Alaska Republicans and hands out two pardons.
Russia Pounds Ukraine’s Energy Infrastructure
Judge Indefinitely Reverses Ban On News OrganizatIons
“A federal judge on Tuesday night indefinitely restored access to the White House for three national news organizations that were banned by President Donald Trump in a victory for freedom of the press,” MS NOW reports.
“U.S. District Judge Timothy Kelly sided with MS NOW, CNN and Politico for now in ruling that the news organizations cannot be denied access to the White House by the Trump administration. Kelly found Trump’s ban likely violated both the due process clause of the Fifth Amendment and the First Amendment.”
CNBC: Judge indefinitely blocks Trump from banning 3 media outlets from White House.
Trump Announces Oil and Gas Exploration in Greenland
“President Donald Trump announced Wednesday that ‘massive’ oil, gas and mineral exploration was expected to begin in Greenland,” Fox News reports.
Said Trump: “Massive Oil, Gas, and Mineral Exploration is getting ready to begin in our new and beautiful Greenland!”
CNN: Trump says “massive” oil and gas drilling is about to begin in Greenland.
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Taegan Goddard
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.
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