Nate Silver‘s latest forecast shows Democrats with a 93.6% chance to win the House and a 75% chance to win the Senate.
Daily Archives
October 19, 2026
93 posts · Monday
Greg Abbott Raked in $9 Million From Data Center Donors
“In June, as public opinion on data centers soured, Gov. Greg Abbott took his first big swing at reining in the industry, issuing a round of regulatory recommendations to the Legislature that included his call to end a major tax break for the facilities,” the Texas Tribune reports.
“In total, Abbott has raised about $9 million from data center-related donors since July 2025, which accounts for about 13% of the donations he’s taken in during that time.”
Maura Healey Headed Towards Landslide in Massachusetts
A new WCVB/University of Massachusetts Amherst poll in Massachusetts finds Maura Healey (D) leading Mike Minogue (R) in the governor’s race, 57% to 32%, with Andrea James (I) at 6%.
Massachusetts Governor’s Race
Maura Healey (D) 57%
Mike Minogue (R) 32%
Andrea James (I) 6%
Secret Pay-for-Play Text Rocks Trump White House
“Top Trump adviser Ric Grenell allegedly outlined a stunning pay-for-influence offer to a Turkish billionaire last year: access to ‘POTUS,’ ‘VIP events’ and administration officials, according to a text message that the White House counsel is investigating,” Axios reports.
“Administration officials say the text is a key piece of evidence in the White House’s investigation — ordered by President Trump — into whether Grenell abused the president’s trust and misappropriated a potential multimillion-dollar donation to the Kennedy Center, which Grenell led at the time.”
Jon Ossoff Makes L.A. Fundraising Swing
“Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) will be in Los Angeles on Monday for a fundraising swing, expected to be his final one through a prime Democratic donor base with the midterms approaching,” Deadline reports.
Jon Ossoff Solidly Ahead in Georgia Senate Race
A new Quantus Insights poll in Georgia finds Jon Ossoff (D) leading Mike Collins (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 52% to 45%.
Georgia Senate Race
Jon Ossoff (D) 52%
Mike Collins (R) 45%
The same poll in Georgia finds Rick Jackson (R) leading Keisha Bottoms (D) in the governor’s race, 48% to 47%.
Georgia Governor’s Race
Rick Jackson (R) 48%
Keisha Bottoms (D) 47%
Republicans’ Grip On State Power Is Also at Risk
“The national political obsession has focused on the House and Senate, and whether Republicans will lose their lock on federal power. But Election Day could deliver another profound swing in power,” the Washington Post reports.
“Democrats appear on track to govern a majority of states across the country for the first time since 2010, which could create enormous advantages for the party in 2028 and beyond.”
“With three dozen states holding gubernatorial contests, the map holds a wealth of opportunities for Democrats in part because 19 are for open seats in a climate where the winds are blowing against the party in control.”
Iowa Voters Lean Towards a Split Ticket
A new National Public Affairs (R) poll finds Ashley Hinson (R) leading Josh Turek (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 44%, with Thomas Laehn (L) at 4%.
Senate Race
Ashley Hinson (R) 47%
Josh Turek (D) 44%
The same poll finds Rob Sand (D) leading Zach Lahn (R) in the governor’s race, 50% to 45%.
Governor’s Race
Rob Sand (D) 50%
Zach Lahn (R) 45%
Tehran Seeks to Punish Trump in Midterms
“For Iran’s leadership, the next few weeks are a critical window. Anticipating that President Donald Trump will be less sensitive to high energy prices after the midterm elections, Tehran is scrambling to inflict maximum pain now by escalating attacks in the Strait of Hormuz,” the Washington Post reports.
“Two Iranian officials said their government is focused on the Nov. 3 midterms and sees the window leading up to them as critical to exercising leverage over Trump..”
Unreliable Boyfriend
Just published: Unreliable Boyfriend: An Insider's View of Dealing with a Chaotic Superpower, Plutocrats, and Other Complicated People by Chrystia Freeland.
“A different kind of political memoir: a candid, deeply personal account of power, politics, and globalization from an unlikely insider—a five-foot-one journalist turned Deputy Prime Minister who now turns her reportorial eye on her own life, her battles with authoritarians and plutocrats, and the fragile future of liberal democracy.”
New · Out October 13, 2026Unreliable Boyfriend
An Insider's View of Dealing with a Chaotic Superpower, Plutocrats, and Other Complicated People
HardcoverKindle
How Israel Steered Qatari Payments to Gaza
Time: “As Israeli voters prepare for elections on Oct. 27, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has tried to defend and distance himself from one of his government’s most controversial policies: allowing Qatar to funnel nearly $2 billion into the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip for more than a decade.”
“Previously undisclosed documents obtained by TIME, including letters from senior Israeli security officials to Qatari leaders, reveal that Israel encouraged and played a direct role in a payment program that was more extensive than Netanyahu has publicly acknowledged.”
Man Who Heckled Abdul El-Sayed Is Ex-Josh Hawley Aide
“A man who heckled Democratic candidate for Senate Abdul El-Sayed and demanded he disavow the Muslim Brotherhood at a Michigan townhall is a former aide to the Republican senator Josh Hawley,” The Guardian reports.
2028 Democratic Rivals Target Andy Beshear
“Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear is in open war with prominent Latino lawmakers, and his potential 2028 rivals for president are taking advantage,” Axios reports.
“Beshear, as head of the Democratic Governors Association (DGA), has resisted pressure from Latino leaders to invest heavily in Gina Hinojosa’s campaign for Texas governor, opting to focus on races in other states.”
“In response, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore have given money to Hinojosa’s bid to unseat Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) — and earned praise from Latino lawmakers.”
“The back-and-forth amounts to one of the first fights of the 2028 Democratic primary, against the backdrop of the party’s desperation to reverse the GOP’s recent gains among Latino voters.”
Small Justice Office Approves Trump’s Power Grabs
Washington Post: “As the Trump administration pushes the bounds of executive power, the Justice Department unit known as the Office of Legal Counsel, or OLC, has affirmed some of its most high-profile and controversial actions — even as many experts question their legitimacy and some are later struck down by the courts.”
“Tucked away on the Justice Department’s fifth floor, the two dozen or so lawyers at the OLC are charged with assessing the legality of actions the executive branch wants to take, especially those that are novel or likely to be contentious. Much of its work, particularly on national security matters, remains shielded from public view, but some of the office’s conclusions have emerged in often dense legal opinions.”
Siding with Putin Is a Huge Mistake
The Atlantic: “President Trump’s inexplicable decision to waive some sanctions on Russia, announced late Friday, essentially gives a pass to the forces of evil in the Kremlin. The move effectively nullifies legislation that was named after the late Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, passed by huge bipartisan majorities in both the House and Senate, and signed by the president.”
“This decision is the latest in a long series that this administration has taken to appease or accommodate the Russians in misguided attempts to get them to negotiate. Russian President Vladimir Putin pockets these naive offerings and still refuses to talk.”
“Surveys show that most Americans stand with Ukraine as it defends itself against Russia, view Putin as a dangerous threat who shouldn’t be trusted, and want to see the United States offer more assistance to Ukraine.”
Justices to Review Ban On Distilling Liquor at Home
“The Supreme Court on Monday said it will consider the constitutionality of a nearly 160-year-old federal ban on distilling liquor at home,” CBS News reports.
Justices Turn Away Appeal From Alleged 9/11 Mastermind
“The Supreme Court on Monday rebuffed a bid from accused Sept. 11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and two alleged accomplices to revive plea agreements that they reached with military prosecutors before being revoked by the Biden administration,” CBS News reports.
Darline Graham Narrowly Leads for South Carolina Senate
A new Trafalgar Group (R) poll in South Carolina finds Darline Graham (R) leading Annie Andrews (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 49% to 46%, with Kasie Whitener (L) at 4% and Mark Hackett (C) at 1%.
South Carolina Senate Race
Darline Graham (R) 49%
Annie Andrews (D) 46%
Taegan Goddard
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.
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