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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 194

What Just Happened?

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 194: What Just Happened?

Trump Is Angry at the Sun

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The day after the GOP’s historic election wipeout, President Trump took to Truth Social:

“Too bad the Senate has not yet approved the Sunshine Protection Act or, the I Don’t Want to Change My Clocks Anymore Act. It’s so dark outside, so early (Sunset was 5:06 P.M., and it was dark by 5:31 P.M. — Isn’t that ridiculous?). Just a few days ago it was so nice and sunny at this same time. In addition, everyone’s been running around changing their clocks all over the place. I didn’t want to make a big deal out of this prior to the Election because I didn’t want to have certain Senators lose their Race, in a landslide, but it is too bad they can’t get it done.”

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Two Senate Races Remain

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Talking PointsTwo U.S. Senate races remain uncalled — and Democrats hold narrow leads over Republican incumbents in both.

Here’s where things stand:

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The Blue Wave Hit Everywhere

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Reuters: “The Democratic wave covered huge swaths of the country. Republicans lost ground in 99% of the roughly 2,200 counties where most votes had been counted by Wednesday morning, according to tallies compiled by Reuters and USA Today, which are partnering this year to collect live election results. The party lost votes in rich and poor ​areas, in cities and in suburbs.”

“The losses in most places were dramatic: Across the counties tallied, Republicans’ share of the vote fell 8 percentage ​points compared with Trump’s share in 2024.”

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The Election They Didn’t See Coming

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Talking PointsLosing in a national wave is one thing. Failing to see it coming is another.

Republicans had plenty of reason to prepare for a difficult election.

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Talking Points is my analysis of the political landscape, written only for Political Wire members.

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Democrats’ Slow Bern

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“A decade after MAGA stole Bernie Sanders’ populist thunder, a slate of Sanders-backed Democrats stole it back. Now the 85-year-old senator has a warning for his party: Don’t blow it this time,” Politico reports.

Said Sanders: “These are people who ran on a progressive agenda, taking on a Republican district, and they won. We’ve got to rethink politics in the sense that we can win over millions of Republicans and independents who are struggling economically if we focus on the issues that are important.”

“Rethinking politics, in Sanders’ telling, means a clean break from the Democratic Party built on the Kamala Harris platform — the Goldman-adjacent donor class and consultants who, for years, muddled economic messaging with culture-war fights Republicans were only too happy to pick.”

‘Florida Is the Last Main Anchor Standing’ for Republicans

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“On a midterm election night awash in blue, one significant corner of the country stayed red,” the New York Times reports.

“Florida, the third most populous state, withstood a national Democratic surge on Tuesday, remaining a Republican bastion even as the GOP amassed deep losses in Texas and across the electoral map.”

Said Gov. Ron DeSantis: “We got wiped out in Texas, the biggest anchor we have in Republican politics. So really, Florida is the last main anchor standing.”

The Blue Wave Swamped Trump’s Redistricting Wall

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“President Donald Trump went all-in on an unprecedented mid-decade redistricting push to protect the GOP’s House majority. The blue wave washed right over it,” Politico reports.

”In a normal year, Republicans’ multi-state push to redraw seats should have handed them as many as a dozen extra seats. But in a historically large wave year — Democrats are on pace to win the national popular vote by roughly a 13-point margin — Republicans ended up netting just two seats.”

NBC News: Republicans bet the House on redistricting, but Democrats swept through the seats they targeted.

Alito Will Not Retire From Supreme Court Immediately

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“Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. has told people close to him that he does not intend to retire immediately from the Supreme Court, despite Democrats’ commanding win in Senate contests on Tuesday, which means Republicans will hold the chamber for only a short time longer,” the New York Times reports.

“As a result, Republicans may have missed the window for President Trump to name a fourth or even a fifth justice to the Supreme Court in the final two years of his presidency.”

Bloomberg: Trump’s power to shape Supreme Court doused by Democratic rout.

Trump Faces a Tough New Reality

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Wall Street Journal: “Trump and some of his top aides had already been expressing doubts about the defense chief, some of the people said. After the scale of the midterm defeat became clear, angry GOP lawmakers began discussing a new proposal, the people said: Get rid of Hegseth if you want anything to get done in the coming lame-duck session.”

“The idea that Congress would demand anything from Trump—let alone the job of the country’s top military official as the U.S. is fighting a war in the Middle East—had been inconceivable since Trump returned to the White House in 2025.”

Vance Takes a Step Toward 2028 in MAGA Power Play

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“Vance’s presidential ambitions are entangled in the wreckage of a war he privately opposed but publicly defended. His path to 2028 demands a delicate political calculation,” Axios reports.

”Vance must convince MAGA’s disillusioned voters that he understands their sense of betrayal, even as he remains a central figure in the administration responsible for the Iran war.”

“His maneuvering will take place under the gaze of a president who doesn’t seem particularly eager to leave the stage — and who isn’t shy about reining in those on his team who overstep.”

NBC News: Vance tiptoes out on his own after a midterm wipeout for Republicans.

House Democrats Debate Their Agenda

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“Hakeem Jeffries will have the largest House majority in decades next year, and he’s gearing up to use it,” Semafor reports.

“House Democrats’ initial plans involve voting to repeal cuts to Medicaid enacted in Republicans’ megabill, restore lapsed healthcare subsidies, end the Iran war, and sunset tariffs. He and Democratic leaders plan to talk as a caucus about plans to tackle AI and other issues.”

“The larger-than-expected House majority along with control of the Senate opens more legislative options for Democrats — though President Donald Trump still has veto power.”

CNN: Democrats debate what to do with their midterm mandate.

Quote of the Day

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“2026 was not simply a blue wave; it was a blue tsunami. It was an ass kicking. It was not simply a bad 2006 midterm election. It was a Watergate-level repudiation.”

— Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), quoted by the New York Post.

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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