Political Wire

Iran in ‘Advanced Stages’ of Planning Attacks

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“The U.S. government has put employees on heightened alert across the Middle East and moved to reduce personnel levels at embassies and consulates because of intelligence showing Iran is in the advanced stages of planning attacks against Americans,” the New York Times reports.

“Intelligence officials raised alarms to Secretary of State Marco Rubio in a memo on Friday that warned about the dangers to State Department employees in the Middle East and other regions.”

Financial Times: Intelligence memo warns Iran plotting to kill Americans in Middle East.

White House Is Weighing Mass Pardons for Junior Staff

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“White House attorneys are evaluating whether to issue mass pardons to junior staffers, as Trump allies press the administration to protect lower-ranked officials from prosecution and other legal challenges, according to two sources familiar with the conversations,” the Washington Sun reports.

“While President Donald Trump has publicly discussed issuing pardons for top aides and issued pardons for billionaires and major donors, questions have mounted about the potential legal jeopardy facing thousands of employees who have implemented the White House’s agenda.”

“A pardon for all junior administration personnel is viewed as unlikely, one source said, but the president could issue blanket pardons for all employees involved in particular policy areas, such as deportations, war or trade.”

Trump AI Data Center Push Faces Voter Backlash

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CNBC: “Nearly 55% of MAGA supporters want companies to keep developing advanced AI while Congress works on regulations, versus 27% who favor a pause. But only 29% would support a data center within 10 miles of their home, while 40% oppose one. Among all Republicans and Republican-leaning voters — not just those who identify themselves with the MAGA movement — those who say they would support a data center near their home falls to 24%.”

“Across the electorate, 63% don’t want a nearby AI data center and just 13% support one. Democrats lead the opposition: 80% oppose nearby facilities while just 4% support them.”

House Battleground Map Tightens

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“Senior Democrats are tempering their expectations about how big of a House majority they might win, as both parties see a tightening battlefield,” Politico reports.

“The latest rounds of internal polling from both parties from the middle of October show GOP candidates gaining ground in the Midwest and narrowing races in a key Colorado seat and elsewhere, according to six people familiar with the data who were granted anonymity to discuss it. Republicans’ deluge of money also seems to be helping shore up some imperiled Florida seats even as they face serious problems in North Carolina and Texas. The GOP gerrymandered those three states in their favor in the Trump-induced round of redistricting following the 2024 election.”

“Now, Democrats on Capitol Hill are starting to privately caution some of their bolder colleagues that it seems very possible they don’t hit the 235-seat height of their majority following the 2018 elections.”

Republicans Stoop to New Lows in Key Midterm Races

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Aaron Blake: “Any campaign that involves Donald Trump is bound to get pretty ugly. The 2024 campaign was marred by the now-president and now-Vice President JD Vance falsely claiming Haitian migrants in Ohio were eating people’s pets.”

“But the 2026 campaign is getting really ugly — especially on the Republican side.”

“Morality aside, the question is whether that ugliness is a sign of sound GOP strategy or of desperation. It seems to be a large helping of the latter.”

How Trump Gave the Worst Polluters a Free Pass

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New York Times: “In total, since taking office again, Mr. Trump exempted 202 facilities in 39 states and Puerto Rico from clean-air regulations that were going into effect. Some were among the country’s worst industrial polluters, including chemical manufacturers, copper smelters and coal-burning power plants. About 3.3 million people live within three miles of at least one affected facility.”

“The exemptions represent the biggest presidential intervention in enforcement of the Clean Air Act in the half-century since President Richard M. Nixon signed the bedrock environmental law. And that is only one of the ways the Trump administration is dismantling a variety of federal environmental protections.”

Ramaswamy’s Trump Playbook Faces Test in Ohio

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“Vivek Ramaswamy is ending his run for Ohio governor the same way he launched himself onto the political scene four years ago — with a bet that voters will reward him for a never-back-down bombast that mirrors President Donald Trump’s instincts,” CNN reports.

“But interviews with voters over three days following the release of the Republican nominee’s ad featuring the estranged mother of his Democratic opponent, Amy Acton, offered a glimpse at the potential perils of imitating Trump — particularly in a year in which polls show voters turning away from the president.”

“And if Ramaswamy’s approach alienates enough moderate and independent voters, a Republican Party looking for its way forward in the fast-approaching post-Trump era could find itself losing the ground it gained in a state that not long ago was a perpetual political battleground.”

Legal Experts See Alaska Election Challenge as Dubious

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New York Times: “The Trump administration has filed a lawsuit pre-emptively challenging the certification of Alaska’s Senate election if the Republican candidate narrowly loses. But election law specialists said the litigation lacked any legitimate legal basis.”

Said law professor Richard Pildes: “It is one of the weakest election lawsuits I’ve ever seen. It should have no realistic chance of success in the courts.”

“Nevertheless, the lawsuit raised alarms as President Trump has sought to undermine confidence in the election when polls indicate that Republicans are likely to suffer sweeping losses, with control of Congress hanging in the balance. Mr. Trump tried to overturn his loss of the 2020 election, culminating in the Jan. 6, 2021, riot.”

Obama Returns to the Trail

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“Former President Barack Obama is hitting the trail on Saturday for his first campaign rallies of the midterm elections, putting him directly counter to President Trump, who is set to speak at a rally in the evening,” the New York Times reports.

“Mr. Obama’s return to rally stages in Ohio and Michigan sets up a rare split-screen between him and Mr. Trump, who will appear in Georgia. The two presidents are presenting starkly different pitches on the eve of the midterms, with their parties locked in bitter battles for control of Congress and statehouses.”

U.S. Pressures Mexico to Deliver a Security Win

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“Hoping for a win before the midterm elections, the Trump administration is increasing pressure on Mexico to expand its cooperation against cartels, with an eye toward joint operations with the United States,” the New York Times reports.

“In recent weeks, U.S. officials have delivered a memo proposing a path to potentially having U.S. security personnel accompany counter-cartel operations inside Mexico.”

How Vivek Ramaswamy’s Ruthless Ad Divided Republicans

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“The most explosive advertisement of the midterm elections has split Republicans and again posed the question of what is fair game for campaign attacks in American politics,” the New York Times reports.

“In the days since the leak of the ad from Vivek Ramaswamy, the Republican nominee for governor of Ohio, many fellow GOP politicians have denounced, disavowed or distanced themselves from the spot. Yet President Trump and Vice President JD Vance have defended the ad, a remarkably ruthless one even by the standards of modern political campaigns.”