A new co/efficient poll in New Hampshire finds John Sununu (R) and Chris Pappas (D) tied in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 46%.
New Hampshire Senate Race
John Sununu (R) 46%
Chris Pappas (D) 46%
Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 193
The Magnificent Seven
Trial Balloon · Ep. 193: The Magnificent Seven
Democrats Ahead on the Generic Ballot
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Democrats leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, 44% to 37%.
Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrats 44%
Republicans 37%
Karl Rove Will Vote for a Democrat
Karl Rove, former adviser to President George W. Bush, said he will vote for Jon Rosenthal (D) to serve the Texas Railroad Commission after Bo French (R) posted racist comments about South Asian students at the University of Texas, Texas Tribune reports.
This marks Rove’s first public vote for a Democrat since he began working in Republican politics in the 1970s.
GOP Candidate Calls Himself a ‘Reverse Coconut’
Colorado gubernatorial candidate Victor Marx (R) explained on unearthed audio why he’s comfortable around minorities.
Said Marx: “My background, my father was a drug dealer and a pimp… I tell people I’m a reverse coconut. Brown on the inside, white on the outside. I’m very comfortable around people of color.”
Democratic Candidate Defends Resurfaced Explicit Photos
“A Democrat running for a U.S. House seat representing Long Island said he is ‘not embarrassed or ashamed’ after explicit photos resurfaced over the weekend,” the Washington Sun reports.
Said Chris Gallant: “I have always been unapologetically me. These attacks on my identity have just made me stronger in my values and convictions.”
“The photos, which circulated as advertisements for a sex store in San Francisco up until 2020, depict Gallant modeling in a leather posture collar and metal chains.”
Andy Beshear Confronts a Latino Revolt
“Andy Beshear has a simmering Latino revolt on his hands. Quelling it could come down to Texas,” Politico reports.
“A group of Latino Democratic officials — including operatives, local and congressional leaders — are pushing the Kentucky Governor, who chairs the Democratic Governors Association, to pounce on late-breaking momentum in the Texas gubernatorial race, where Democrat Gina Hinojosa is vying to unseat incumbent GOP Gov. Greg Abbott.”
“The effort to get Beshear to expand the map comes as the DGA eyes several swing states — like Michigan, Arizona, Georgia or Nevada — where the party is focused on keeping or flipping governors’ mansions. But underlying it all is the Democratic Party’s fight to stanch the hemorrhaging of Latino voters from their ranks, and Texas sits at the center of their losses.”
JD Vance to Campaign in Kansas
“Vice President JD Vance is beginning the final stretch of his midterm campaigning with a trip to red America,” the New York Times reports.
“On the heels of his party’s unusual midterm convention, Mr. Vance, who is one of Republicans’ most valuable surrogates, is deploying to the Kansas City area on Monday to campaign alongside Senator Roger Marshall of Kansas, a Republican.”
“Mr. Vance’s visit could suggest that Republicans are worried about yet another state that President Trump won in 2024, as the party steels itself for tougher-than-expected Senate races in places like Texas, Iowa and Ohio.”
MS NOW: Where is JD Vance 50 days from Election Day? Ruby-red Kansas.
If Vance is spending precious time in Kansas, the GOP’s definition of a safe state may be changing.
Joe Manchin Endorses Susan Collins in Maine
“Former Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV), a prominent centrist who left the Democratic Party at the end of his Senate career, has endorsed Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), praising her as the ‘soul of the Senate,'” The Hill reports.
Osborn Leads Ricketts in Nebraska Senate Race
A new SurveyUSA poll in Nebraska finds Dan Osborn (I) leading Pete Ricketts (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 42%.
Nebraska Senate Race
Dan Osborn (I) 46%
Pete Ricketts (R) 42%
Ex-Judge Warns Trump Will Challenge Midterm Results
“Retired federal Judge J. Michael Luttig is sounding the alarm ahead of November’s midterm elections, warning that the country might be ‘sleepwalking’ into another insurrection,” MS NOW reports.
Said Luttig: “That’s exactly what I envision, which is the next Jan. 6, 2021. This time, however, it will be Donald Trump and Mike Johnson refusing to peacefully transfer power to the next Congress of the United States.”
Roger Marshall Backflips on Trump’s $5,000 Checks
Aaron Blake: “When President Donald Trump said he would give adult U.S. citizens $5,000 each if they reelected Republican majorities in the 2026 midterm elections, Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) was one of the first lawmakers to tout the idea.”
Wrote Marshall on X: “Comment how you will spend your $5,000 Trump Dividend when Republicans win in November.”
“By Saturday, though, Marshall sounded a much more skeptical note during a debate at the Kansas State Fair.”
Said Marshall: “I’m going to bring in all the information, and then make a decision. But look, this is not the first time I’ve disagreed with President Trump, and it probably won’t be the last.”
Another Judge Blocks Trump’s Mail Ballot Rule
“President Donald Trump was dealt a fresh setback in his push to overhaul mail voting ahead of the November midterm elections, with another federal judge blocking the Postal Service from enforcing changes to mail-in ballot rules as the U.S. Supreme Court weighs whether to step in,” Bloomberg reports.
“In a ruling late Sunday, U.S. District Judge Carl Nichols in Washington added to the pile of lower court losses for the Trump administration in recent weeks. Nichols concluded that there was a stronger public interest in maintaining the status quo for how states handle mail-in voting ahead of the Nov. 3 contests, when Republicans will defend their slim control of Congress.”
Trump’s Secret Points System for Cabinet Members
The Atlantic: “The White House held a summer contest to see who could appear in the most congressional districts and states with competitive midterm elections.”
The End of the Age of Trump
Doug Sosnik writes in his latest memo that the midterm elections will “mark the end of the Trump era as the bailing wire that held this political structure together will begin to unravel.”
“Immediately following the elections, attention will shift to selecting the next president of the United States.”
Trump and Vance Begin Midterm Drive
“Fresh off basking in the praise of adoring supporters at the GOP midterm convention, President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance kick off their first swing of midterm campaigning in earnest this week, with trips that betray how much trouble their party could be in,” the Washington Post reports.
“Trump, returning from a weekend retreat to his Ireland golf course, is scheduled on Wednesday to visit North Carolina, where his handpicked Senate candidate, former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley, trails former governor Roy Cooper (D) by seven points in a recent high-quality poll.”
“Vance, meanwhile, plans to travel to Kansas on Monday to campaign for GOP Sen. Roger Marshall, whose reelection race appears too close for comfort for Republicans.”
The Midterms Might Come Down to One Thing
Wall Street Journal: “There will be a lot of noise in the next 50 days, as candidates scratch and claw and try to out-AI each other ahead of the polls. There will be plenty of debate about Abdul El-Sayed and Hasan Piker. There will be a lot of second-guessing about whether Ken Paxton was the strongest GOP candidate to take on James Talarico. There will be hand-wringing about Maine, and New Hampshire, and Iowa, and Alaska, and Ohio. But the price of gasoline stares Americans in the face each day as they go about their lives.”
“This, and, by proxy, the Iran War, could end up being the defining issue of this midterm.”
Paul LePage Poised to Join House After Jared Golden’s Exit
“Voters in a rare House district that went red for president and blue for Congress are on the verge of replacing one of the most centrist House Democrats with a hard-line conservative who called himself ‘Donald Trump before Donald Trump,'” the Washington Post reports.
“Election forecasters see Maine’s former Republican governor Paul LePage as the likely winner in this rural district despite his history of incendiary comments such as ‘Black people come up the highway and they kill Mainers.'”
Trump Is Selling an Economy Americans Aren’t Buying
“The midterm elections are getting closer, and the Trump administration’s explanations for rising inflation are getting further from what many voters and independent economists are describing,” the Washington Sun reports.
“Trump’s economic policy advisers have zeroed in on indicators like wages, GDP and stock market growth to sell Americans on a humming economy. Americans are reporting a different experience. In a July Pew Research Center poll, 60% of U.S. adults said that President Donald Trump’s second-term policies have made the economy worse.”
“The dissonance has reminded former Biden officials of a dynamic they caution can be a losing battle: trying to explain the economy to American voters.”
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Taegan Goddard
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.
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