November 5, 2018

Roll Call: “Republican leaders pitched their closing midterm argument Monday: that Democratic gains would mean a check on the agenda of President Donald Trump, including the unimpeded seating of conservative judges and a halt to the president’s border wall.”

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Our expectations for this election have been consistent for the past several months. We favor the Democrats in the House and Republicans in the Senate, and we expect the Democrats to pick up a significant share of governorships.”

House: “Our ratings changes leave 229 seats at least leaning to the Democrats and 206 at least leaning to the Republicans, so we are expecting the Democrats to pick up more than 30 seats (our precise ratings now show Democrats netting 34 seats in the House, 11 more than the 23 they need). We have long cautioned against assuming the House was a done deal for the Democrats, and we don’t think readers should be stunned if things go haywire for Democrats tomorrow night. That said, it may be just as likely — or even more likely — that we’re understating the Democrats in the House. ”

Senate: “Because of the bad map Democrats faced this year, the GOP picking up seats always seemed like a possibility, even a strong possibility. Our final ratings reaffirm this potential; we have 52 Senate seats at least leaning to the Republicans, and 48 at least leaning to the Democrats. If that happened, the GOP would net a seat.”

Governors: “For all the focus on the House and the Senate, the real story of the night may be in the gubernatorial races, where we see the Democrats poised to make big gains.”

In its final race ratings of the 2018 midterm election cycle, the Cook Political Report shifted nine House races toward Democrats and one in favor of Republicans.

“We rate 75 races as competitive, including 70 GOP-held seats and just five held by Democrats. A ‘Red Exodus’ is contributing to the potential ‘Blue Wave:’ of Republicans’ 41 open seats, 15 are rated as Toss Ups or worse, and another five are only in Lean Republican.”

“Just by winning all of the races at least “leaning” their way, Democrats would net 16 of the 23 seats they need for a majority. In that scenario, Democrats would only need to win eight of the 30 races in Toss Up to win control (they currently hold one Toss Up, Minnesota’s 1st CD). Conversely, Republicans would likely need to win 23 of the 30 Toss Up races to keep their majority. That’s not impossible, but it’s very difficult.”

Los Angeles Times: “For 727 days, Americans have wrestled with the choices they made at the ballot box. The presidency, the control of Congress, the resulting policy choices have left hardly a single hour free from strident debate and discord.”

“And now, we’re just hours away from the best measure yet of how the nation’s voters feel about the legacy of 2016 and, more specifically, President Trump. Not that we should expect Tuesday’s midterm election will settle all fights — even as early voting seems brisk, at a pace in some states that could outpace total ballots cast in 2014.”

Variety: “Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity will join President Trump for his final midterm rally on a Monday night in Cape Girardeau, Missouri.”

A new George Washington University poll finds Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by eight points, 48% to 40%.

John Sides: “Here’s a remarkable thing about the 2018 election campaign: how little has changed… I think most people know that we live in a world of strong partisanship, which is increasingly evident in congressional voting. But how much partisanship helped stabilize people’s preferences in this election season still surprised me.”