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Shake Up

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 195: Shake Up

Democrats Weigh Shutdown Over Iran War

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Punchbowl News: “What was supposed to be a hectic lame-duck session is now a power struggle between ascendant Democrats and President Donald Trump. The odds of a government shutdown have increased dramatically since Democrats’ big win on Tuesday – fueled in part by the public’s opposition to the Iran war – with a Dec. 11 funding deadline looming.”

“House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer meet privately this week. One of the challenges they face is whether to provoke a shutdown over Iran. Especially Schumer.”

“Despite helping deliver a massive Election Day, Schumer is facing calls from some progressives for his ouster. It won’t happen, but it raises the stakes for him in the funding fight.”

New House Members Arrive for Orientation

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“Dozens of Democratic House freshmen descended on the Hill this week for new member orientation as their party starts debating how exactly it’ll flex its newfound power,” Politico reports.

“More than 100 incoming members and prospects — overwhelmingly Democrats, but also new Republicans — flooded the halls of Capitol Hill yesterday, with vibes landing somewhere between excitement and newbie nervousness.”

Less Party Loyalty, Big Election Swings

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“President Trump’s Republicans just found out the hard way what other political parties are seeing across western democracies: Voters are fed up, they have lost trust in political parties and they don’t have much patience when they feel politicians aren’t listening,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The massive shift in the midterm elections is a sign of a new political era taking hold from Paris, Texas, to Paris, France. Voters are becoming less attached to the parties their parents voted for and are more likely to try out new parties or new political pitches, on the left and right.”

“And while they are willing to give insurgent parties or populist figures like Trump a shot, they will also lose patience quickly if they don’t deliver.”

Elon Musk’s Empire Braces for Democratic Crackdown

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“Elon Musk’s sprawling empire — from rockets to robots, electric cars to AI — is facing a political onslaught with few parallels in modern corporate history,” Axios reports.

“The world’s richest man confronts a constellation of risks spanning the halls of Congress, his Texas industrial empire, Wall Street and his vision for AI supremacy.”

“To Democrats, Musk embodies corrosive forces of the MAGA era — extreme wealth, billionaire influence over government, the gutting of federal institutions, the poisoning of social media and the unchecked power of AI.”

Trump Pushes Back on JD Vance’s Iran War Post

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“President Donald Trump pushed back Sunday on Vice President JD Vance’s social media post blaming the Iran war for Republicans’ midterm losses, saying Vance left out whether he would make the same decision again. Trump said he would,” Politico reports.

Said Trump: “He was right, other than one thing. He should have made one other statement. ‘If you had it to do again, would you do it again?’ The answer is yes.”

Trump Concedes Immigration Policies Hurt Republicans

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Wall Street Journal: “Trump acknowledged that his hard-line immigration policies may have hurt Republicans in Tuesday’s midterm elections—and he expressed openness to reaching a compromise on the issue with newly empowered Democrats.”

Said Trump: “For getting people out, I get very high marks for getting the bad ones out.”

But he added: “When you go into a hotel and you have a woman that’s worked there as—you know, as a maid, as a cleaner, as a this, as a that, as a waitress, a lotta good things, great job—and all of a sudden, they’re being taken outta the country, it’s tough.”

“The president suggested that immigration was an area where he could work with Democrats, saying that such a deal would be ‘something that’s actually doable.’”

Trump Backs Jensen Huang Amid Spy Investigation

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“President Trump defended Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang on Sunday night, even as the company’s board launched an investigation into his affair with a suspected Chinese spy,” Axios reports.

“The blowback to Huang’s relationship is only getting more intense by the hour, with multiple members of Congress calling for probes and investors saying the news could put a cloud over the entire AI trade.”

Victorious Democrats Vow to Rein in Prediction Markets

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“It was the tale of two election nights for prediction markets,” Politico reports.

“Kalshi and Polymarket, the two dominant platforms, foretold Democrats’ sweeping victories in the midterms — and well before much of the pundit class — affirming to supporters their value as forecasting tools. But the Democratic wave could also mark the beginning of an uncomfortable new era of scrutiny for the companies in Washington.”

“President Donald Trump’s regulators have embraced the prediction markets over the last two years, clearing the way for them to quickly expand their businesses with a frenzy of new wagers on politics, sports and stocks. Now, Democrats are gearing up for an aggressive oversight regime that is expected to put the upstart industry under intense pressure from Capitol Hill.”

The Options Trump Is Weighing to Resolve the War in Iran

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New York Times: “Just as Mr. Trump cited a jumble of objectives as the war began — collapsing the Iranian government, dismantling the remnants of its nuclear program, restricting the country’s missile arsenal and ending Iranian help to proxies in the region — he is struggling to articulate how much more the United States should expend in the deeply unpopular conflict.”

Trump Aides Feud in Public

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“Ahead of what would become a public feud on social media this weekend, James Blair, President Trump’s former deputy chief of staff, sent Calley Means, a former top health adviser, a warning,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

Said Blair: “If you are gonna try to knife me, I’m happy to return the favor.”

Republicans Eye Florida’s ‘Alligator People’ for 2028

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“Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is positioning himself for a presidential run. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is running away from the idea of his own campaign for the White House,” Axios reports.

“The political posturing of the two Florida Republicans — or the efforts to draft either for 2028 — underscores the sudden volatility of the way-too-early GOP preprimary campaign to succeed President Trump.”

“Before Tuesday’s midterm Republican wipeout, the party’s 2028 primary looked like a relatively easy coronation for Vice President Vance (if he runs, as expected). Now there’s a nascent movement to kneecap Vance and promote other possible opponents.”

Trump Was ‘Only Kidding’ About Press Secretary Job

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“President Donald Trump told reporters Sunday night that he was ‘only kidding’ in his earlier social media post offering the job of White House press secretary to Ultimate Fighting Championship CEO Dana White,” the Washington Post reports.

“The comments ended a day of speculation that he had chosen his longtime friend and political ally to fill one of the most high profile jobs in the White House, as he shakes up his administration following the midterms.”

Bloomberg: Trump says he was joking about UFC’s Dana White as spokesman.

Joe Biden to Scale Back Book Events

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“Former President Joe Biden signaled that he will limit public appearances to promote his memoir coming out this month, citing health issues as he continues treatment for prostate cancer,” Bloomberg reports.

Said Biden: “Some days are better than others. It hasn’t stopped me. But sometimes it slows me down. What that means is, unfortunately, I won’t be able to do as many conversations about my book as I’d hoped.”

Pre-order · Out November 17, 2026Promise Me, America
by Joe Biden · Little, Brown and Company
Pre-order on Amazon
HardcoverKindle
More on this book from Political Wire →

CNN: Joe Biden says cancer will limit him from promoting his upcoming memoir.

Mamdani’s Bid for 2028 Kingmaker

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“New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani can’t be president, so he’s trying to be the next best thing: a progressive kingmaker for 2028,” Axios reports.

“Mamdani has been meeting privately with union leaders, urgently talking up the need for a labor-aligned or leftist candidate to run for the White House… He’s arguing that progressives can’t afford to squander their midterm momentum.”

“Behind closed doors, Mamdani has made a striking admission that helps explain why he’s so eager to huddle with allies about 2028: He’s uncertain whether New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, his close political partner, will launch a White House run.”

How Canada Inflicted Maximum Midterms Pain On Trump

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“A trade deal was imminent. Top negotiators from the United States and Canada were holed up in a dreary building in southwest D.C., working on the details of an agreement to finally end hostilities that had wreaked havoc on both countries’ economies and a once close diplomatic and military relationship,” Politico reports.

“But then, two hours before the Aug. 22 tariff deadline, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney instructed his negotiators to walk away. That night, the U.S. responded, imposing a 50% tariff on $20 billion worth of Canadian goods like wood pulp, hockey equipment and industrial machinery.”

“Carney’s government had been watching the trade negotiation deadline with an eye to a different clock ticking down: two months until Trump’s constituents went to the polls. For Canadian leaders who had spent a decade testing strategies to confront an increasingly adversarial neighbor, the electoral calendar was a new source of bargaining power to explore.”

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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