Political Wire

New Signs of Rising Risk

· Leave a Comment

Jim VandeHei: “Eye-opening revelations this past week have solidified my personal fears about the year ahead: As a nation and as a globe, we’re facing a record number of wild risks that are way outside our control.”

“My growing hunch about this scenario has been bolstered by daily conversations with CEOs, government insiders and top investors.”

“It feels likely — not certain — that between now and 2028, we’ll face society-level disruptions, possibly including cyberattacks and fast-twitch economic shocks.”

Voters More Worried About Corruption Under Trump

· Leave a Comment

Financial Times Poll: “Corruption has become a key source of American discontent in the closing days of midterm election campaigning, with a large majority of U.S. voters saying they are worried about graft in Donald Trump’s second administration.”

“About 69 percent of registered voters, and almost 50 percent of those who voted for the president in 2024, said they were ‘very’ or ‘somewhat’ concerned about ‘corruption, self-dealing or conflicts of interest’ in the Trump administration.”

For members: It’s the Corruption Too, Stupid

From our partner:

Here's a News Tool Worth Trying

I spend a lot of time following political news, but even I can't read everything. That's why I appreciate what Ground News does.

It shows how the same story is covered across the political spectrum — and highlights important stories that one side may be ignoring entirely.

Take a look for yourself. Political Wire readers get 40% off Ground News Vantage at ground.news/politicalwire.

 

How Ohio Trump Voters Reacted to Vivek’s Attack Ad

· Leave a Comment

Sarah Longwell conducted a focus group with 10 Trump voters in Ohio to test their feelings about Vivek Ramaswamy’s (R) controversial attack ad on rival Amy Acton (D).

“The findings here represent just a sample of the Ohio electorate. But the fact that everyone had heard of or seen the ad and the universal revulsion to it suggest that this could be an all-time backfire for Ramaswamy—and it raises the possibility that Trump and Vance will also suffer politically for rushing to defend it.”

Trump’s Department of Justice Barrels Into Midterms

· Leave a Comment

“With just nine days until the midterms, the Trump administration is escalating its assault on two of the Department of Justice’s most sacred guardrails: Independence from the White House and restraint before elections,” Axios reports.

“President Trump’s DOJ has shattered the traditional calm of a pre-election period with a barrage of politically sensitive investigations, prosecutions and eleventh-hour efforts to influence the vote.”

Republicans May Be Neglecting Their Most Reliable Voters

· Leave a Comment

Washington Sun: “Two years into a Trump administration that social conservatives hoped would bring significant victories on abortion and other evangelical Christian voters’ priorities, some are unimpressed by what the president has delivered. The lack of enthusiasm has been exacerbated by a national campaign outreach strategy that seems to be targeting everybody but them.”

“The bottom line? Evangelical Christians feel overlooked.”

“The discontent among the Republican Party’s most loyal voting bloc raises an uncomfortable question ahead of Election Day: Will evangelicals remain faithful to show up when their party needs them?”

Bonus Quote of the Day

· Leave a Comment

“What are they doing? They’re flipping blue districts to blue. Wow, really impressive, okay? Now, you tell me: If you flip a district from blue to cobalt blue, and you don’t flip Omaha, how much of a minimum wage increase that the middle class, the working class, is relying on are you getting passed? I’m not impressed, okay?”

— Rahm Emanuel, quoted by the Washington Sun, in a rant on the “quote-unquote-left” of the Democratic party.

What Might a Polling Miss Look Like?

· Leave a Comment

Sean Trende: “While I can come up with stories about why polls this year might be underestimating Republicans on balance, I can also come up with theories about why polls are now underestimating Democrats on balance.”

“One obvious explanation is that pollsters are overly sensitive about misses in 2016, 2020, and 2024 and have overcorrected for them, effectively solving for Republican turnout problems in their polls that will still exist in the wild. Another is that pollsters are simply weighting 2024 turnout patterns too heavily.”

The ‘Almost Young’ May Decide This Election

· Leave a Comment

David Hopkins: “Citizens under 30 dependably have the lowest turnout rates of any age range, and they are especially likely to sit out non-presidential elections. In 2022, only 26 percent of eligible citizens aged 18-29 showed up to vote, compared to 64 percent of those over the age of 60. Even a dramatic surge in support among this sector of the electorate can only deliver a limited number of new votes.”

“A less examined but more strategically important age group is those in their 30s and 40s. Many Americans first become engaged in politics during this life stage, and some are still developing firm views and preferences. As a result, they represent a significantly larger slice of the overall electorate—the Times poll estimates that voters between the ages of 30 and 44 will outnumber those between 18 and 29 by a 2-to-1 ratio this November—but can also exhibit significant partisan shifts from one election to the next.”

Democrats’ Midterm Map Expands

· Leave a Comment

“Republicans began the 2026 midterm election cycle with the Senate map as one of their biggest advantages. It hasn’t turned out that way,” Bloomberg reports.

“With less than two weeks until Election Day, President Donald Trump is defensively campaigning in GOP strongholds including South Carolina and Mississippi. Groups are pouring money into deep red states such as Texas. There are signs Republicans have largely given up on winning in places where they should have an edge, including Georgia and North Carolina.”

“Party insiders say this year’s ‘red wall’ — a set of reliably Republican states that are necessary to ensure a majority — includes Iowa, Ohio and Alaska, which Trump won by double digits just two years ago.”

NPR: In Arkansas, Democrats see an opening at the edge of the competitive midterms map.

The State Officials Defending the Midterms From Trump

· Leave a Comment

New Yorker: “It was not always this unnerving to be an election official. But persistent lies about voter fraud, a centerpiece of Trump’s political narrative, have set loose torrents of hostility toward the men and women who oversee balloting nationwide. There are more than ten thousand voting jurisdictions in the United States, ranging from townships to states.”

“In a national survey of local election officials this year, a third of them reported that they had personally been subjected to threats, harassment, or abuse because of their work. Half said they feared for the safety of their colleagues.”

“In this election season, the familiar threats, online and often pseudonymous, have been accompanied by new ones from federal authorities.”

Quote of the Day

· Leave a Comment

“Like it or not, we’re stuck with two more years of this, but we’re not stuck with a spineless Congress.”

— Former President Barack Obama, quoted by Bloomberg, urging voters to throw out Republicans in the midterms.