Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) told CNN he “is planning to run for re-election next year, abandoning his plans to quit the chamber after four decades of service.”
“The Utah Republican — who promised in 2012 that his current term would be his last — said he has changed his mind at this time, partially because he’s been getting encouragement from President Donald Trump and top Republicans to run again.”
“Congressional Democrats have been forcing Republicans to cast tough votes on President Trump — and they’re just getting started,” The Hill reports.
“In recent days, Democrats have triggered votes related to Trump’s tax returns, business relationships and ties to Russia in an effort to cast Republicans as complicit in the secrecy surrounding Trump’s finances.”
“None of the votes succeeded, but Democrats remain undeterred as they seek to fire up their liberal base ahead of next year’s midterm elections.”
Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH), “whose national profile has risen in recent months, will not be a candidate for Ohio governor in 2018,” the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.
“The eight-term congressman wrestled with a run for months, weighing the risk of jumping into a potentially crowded and unpredictable primary against sticking with a safe House seat.”
NPR: “Will the election of Donald Trump, who once boasted of grabbing women by the genitalia and has a history of sexist remarks, create a wave of female candidates at all levels of government in the coming years?”
“Early signs from the groups that work with women considering a bid for office suggest a level of intense interest not seen in at least a quarter century.”
Nate Cohn: “There is no guarantee that the Democrats can put the House in play, even if Mr. Trump’s approval ratings remain as low as they are now or slip further. The Republicans have so many safe seats that they could even survive a so-called wave election like the ones that swept Democrats to power in 2006 and out of power in 2010. The Democrats need 24 seats to retake the House.”
“Across the nation, the most vulnerable Republican incumbents among the 50 or so most competitive seats tend to be in relatively well-educated, metropolitan districts with above-average Hispanic populations. It’s the opposite of most of the 2016 presidential battleground states, which were whiter, less educated and far less Hispanic than the country as a whole.”
“Near a nadir of political power, Democrats across the country say their comeback must begin with key races next year — and warn that failure to make big gains in state races in 2018 will doom them to another decade in the minority in Washington,” The Hill reports.
“More than three-dozen states will choose governors in the next two years, while voters pick state legislative candidates in thousands of districts across the country.”
“In the vast majority of cases, those legislators and governors will draw new political boundaries following the 2020 census that will determine just how competitive the battle for the U.S. House of Representatives will be in the following decade.”
“Most Republicans in swing districts are steering clear of in-person town hall gatherings this week, hoping to avoid the anti-President Trump protesters determined to make them the star of a viral YouTube video,” The Hill reports.
“It’s a safer strategy, but one that comes with a political risk: Democrats are mocking Republicans for running away from their constituents as their party seeks to gut ObamaCare, build a border wall and temporarily ban travel from seven Muslim-majority nations.”
Politico: GOP lessons from the latest round of brutal town halls.
Stuart Rothenberg: “These days, Republicans have a structural advantage in the fight for the House because of how district lines were drawn earlier in the decade. But the party’s current structural advantage in the Senate may be even more important, since it doesn’t depend on state legislators drawing favorable lines, and the Senate has responsibilities that the House doesn’t.”
“The GOP’s structural Senate advantage is simply a matter of numbers – the number of states that are reliably Republican or Democratic.”
“We’re raining candidates.”
— DCCC recruitment chair Denny Heck (D-WA), quoted by the National Journal.
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) is denying rumors that she will run for president in 2020, The Hill reports.
Said Gillibrand: “No, I am running for Senate. I’m running for Senate in 2018. I really love my job and I feel like I can make a huge difference for New Yorkers, fighting for them.”
Amy Walter: “Donald Trump has never been well liked. His unfavorable ratings hovered in the 60 percent range for the entirety of the campaign. He was the most unpopular person elected president in modern history. Of course, his opponent was almost equally as unpopular. In the end, lots of voters had to make a choice between two people they disliked. Trump won that fight.”
“But, that won’t be the choice for voters in 2018. Hillary Clinton won’t be on the ballot. It will be a referendum on Trump. The more unpopular he and/or his policies are, the harder it is for his party to succeed in 2018. The good news for Trump today, his unfavorable ratings are 18 points lower than they were in June of 2015. The bad news, he’s still underwater.”
For members: What If Trump’s Approval Stayed This Low Until 2018?
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “So much of what happens next year in the House will be determined by the national environment. But Republicans can take heart that as they go into a midterm under a Republican president, they are not nearly as overextended in the House as Democrats were going into 2010. In that election, Democrats were defending 48 seats that John McCain carried in 2008, and they ended up losing the House. Republicans today are only about half as overextended, and it’s an open question as to whether Democrats can legitimately contend for many of these Clinton-Republican seats. And Republicans should have at least a few appealing targets of their own, such as some of the Trump-Democratic districts.”
“Then again, going into the 2006 midterm, Democrats were defending 40 seats that George W. Bush won two years earlier, while Republicans were only defending 18 seats that John Kerry had won in 2004. So the Democrats were overextended based on the previous presidential results in these districts, but it didn’t stop them from taking control of the House.”
For members: What If Trump’s Approval Stayed This Low Until 2018?
Carly Fiorina told a local Virginia radio show that she’s considering running for the U.S. Senate seat in Virginia in 2018, CNN reports.
Jim VandeHei: “Trump appears incapable of — and completely disinterested in — toning down his rhetoric or actions. In fact, his advisers believe Democrats are falling into their trap with radical reactions they believe will cost them in 2018 and the base of voters who elected Trump. They WANT to radicalize both sides. And Congressional Republicans, a very conservative bunch to begin with, will have every reason to support Trump, even when they don’t want to. In off year elections, with fewer people voting, older, white voters (Trump’s base) are even more important than presidential election years. Republicans won’t want to cross them.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.