July 27, 2017

Senate Republicans have finally released their “skinny” repeal bill which would eliminate some provisions of the Affordable Care Act without trying to replace any of them.

A new CBO report says bill would cause 15 million people to lose their health insurance by next year.

Here’s what happens next:

1. There’s vote around midnight to replace the original House bill with his new “skinny repeal” bill.
2. The Senate will hold a “vote-a-rama” on the bill which will likely last well into Friday morning.
3. The vote for final passage will take place after all amendments have been considered.

Please leave your thoughts and observations in the comments.

Nate Silver: “There’s not much reason to doubt that Ryan will go to conference. While there are no legal assurances of this, to fail to do so would be extremely damaging to House-Senate relations. The GOP still has a lot of legislative business later this year for which it will need the House and Senate to cooperate.”

“The question is what happens if that conference fails — which seems fairly likely given that the Senate has had so much trouble passing a more comprehensive bill. At that point, the House could still just pass the Health Care Freedom Act, and it would go to Trump’s desk. The extra items that Republicans added to the bill, such as the provision to defund Planned Parenthood, seem designed to help increase the likelihood of House approval.”

Caitlin Owens: “Despite GOP senators’ adamant declarations that they don’t want their ‘skinny repeal’ bill to become law if they pass it, there’s at least a decent chance that’s exactly what happens, some staffers openly say.”

For members: How the GOP Health Care Push Ends

Caitlin Owens: “House Speaker Paul Ryan said Thursday evening that the House would be ‘willing’ to go to conference committee with the Senate if that’s what it takes to move the GOP’s health care legislation forward.”

“What he didn’t do, however, was rule out eventually passing a ‘skinny repeal’ bill if the conference committee fails to produce anything that can pass the Senate.”

“Three GOP senators — John McCain, Lindsey Graham and Ron Johnson — said shortly before Ryan issued the statement that they’ll only vote for skinny repeal if the House assured them it would go to conference and the skinny bill wouldn’t become law.”

Politico: “Mitch McConnell is making one last frantic plea to his Senate Republican members to advance the party’s scaled-back Obamacare repeal, assuring them at a private lunch that the vote is merely aimed at getting to conference with the House rather than immediately becoming law.

“Rank-and-file members struggled to explain if there is a guarantee that the bill they are set to vote on within hours would not actually become law. There is some concern the House would adopt a ‘martial law’ procedure that would allow them to quickly take up and pass the health care bill.”

David Nather: “The Senate parliamentarian has ruled that another big piece of the GOP health care bill violates Senate budget rules… Republicans want to expand the Affordable Care Act’s “Section 1332 waivers” to allow states to opt out of more ACA rules, including the “essential health benefit” requirements. The parliamentarian decided that parts of the proposal can’t be passed under Senate budget rules, which largely allow only changes that affect spending and revenues.”

“Unless they can write it in a different way that can survive Senate budget rules, they won’t have anything in their new bill to ease ACA regulations, which conservatives believe is the key to lowering premiums.”